Mobile version of this content for your phone at PregameMobile.com (click now to access)

Pick Archive

The Pros
(expert handicappers)
Goodfella | today's note
SEAHAWKS @ 49ers (3*) TRIPLE DIME21-9 70% WIN STREAK w/SEATTLE GAMES $29.00 $1.00 Add to Cart
Ken Thomson | today's note
Free Pick: Marquette at Georgia Tech
Thanksgiving SPECIAL! 3- PLAYS $12NFL GAME PLUS 2 COLLEGE HOOPS GAMES $12.00 Add to Cart
sleepyj | today's note
Free Pick: BYU at California
NFL "Thanksgiving Day Feast" Play !4-0 NFL Run / 16-4 Premium Run !! $5.00 Add to Cart
Greg Shaker | today's note
TRIPLE TURKEY DAY NFL SLAUGHTERBIG PLAY ALERT THURSDAY--DISCOUNTED $19.00 Add to Cart
Fezzik | today's note
Fezzik's All Access Thu - SundayGet EVERY Pick I release Th-SUN! $79.00 (for Sunday) Add to Cart
Teddy Covers | today's note
Free Pick: New England at Green Bay
Teddy's Turkey Day 2* TV WinnerMarquette vs Georgia Tech on ESPN2 $15.00 Add to Cart
JR ODonnell | today's note
3* NFL Thanks Give Power Mover Top169-114 3* run.. 2-0 3* Sweep l nt $29.00 Add to Cart
Dave Cokin | today's note
CFB Game of Month!Friday Action: 58% Winners $25.00 (for Friday) Add to Cart
Spartan | today's note
Free Pick: Nebraska at Iowa
WEEK 14 COLLEGE BOOKIES NIGHTMARE!Documented +277 Units All Time! $29.00 (for Saturday) Add to Cart
Rocky Atkinson | today's note
Rocky's NFL Double Dime Winner56-28 67% overall in FB this year! $15.00 Add to Cart
Andy Iskoe | today's note
Andy Iskoe's Turkey Day Double Play3* Side & 2 Star Total in the NFL $25.00 Add to Cart
Dollar-A-Day | see more
5-Pros: 5 Premium Picks DailyLess than $1 a Day! $1 Week Trial! $29.00 $1.00 Add to Cart
Bulk Dollars | see more
$300 gets you $500 40% Bonus on Your Money! $500.00 $300.00 Add to Cart
Scott Spreitzer | today's note
CBB FLYING-OVER TOTAL DOMINATOR!60% CBB Totals Last Season! 1st TY! $20.00 Add to Cart
Dave Essler | today's note
Dave's 7 Day All Access PackageSaves up to 50% OFF on DAILY ACCESS $119.00 Add to Cart
See all the Pregame Pros
Pregame.com is the lowest priced top-quality pick site on the net! (less than so-called "gua­rant­eed picks")
Pregame Rewards
Rewards Dollars:
10% of purchases
Rewards Points:
20% of purchases
Find out more
Discounts Available
0
See all discounts
Shopping Cart
SubTotal: 0 Items $0.00
Discount: $0.00
Pregame Dollars: $0.00
Promotion Code: $0.00
Total: $0.00
Checkout
Pregame Deals
Tweets from Pros
Pregame is the most quoted sports betting site in the world! (See latest)
Mon, 04/28/14 - 7:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 901 CHC (+135) Bookmaker.com vs 902 CIN
Analysis:
901 Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati

The Cubs and Reds renew their NL Central rivalry on Monday night at Great American Ball Park with a matchup of right-handers. It'll be Jeff Samardzija for the Cubs going up against Alfredo Simon for the Reds.

If you look at pitchers that are seriously overachieving, Alfredo Simon is clearly near the top of the list. Simon has a BABIP against of .190, despite a strikeout rate of just 15.5 percent. He's stranding nearly 91 percent of his runners and that will not continue for a pitcher with a below average strikeout rate. Simon has a 1.30 ERA but a 3.88 FIP and a 4.33 xFIP. His SIERA of 4.38 also signals regression on the horizon. The Cubs aren't a great offense, but all it takes are ground balls finding holes against Simon and the Cubs are an above average baserunning team.

Besides the statistics that show regression, Simon has an off-field distraction to tend to. Reports came out on Sunday that a woman has filed a civil suit against Simon regarding a past incident involving alleged sexual assault. A guy like Simon with a mediocre arsenal that is a converted reliever due to the Mat Latos injury cannot afford to have a lack of focus. Between the advanced metrics and the distractions, the Cubs stand a good chance of providing Samardzija with some run support.

Jeff Samardzija has traded strikeouts for ground balls so far this season, but he's still one of the most underappreciated arms in baseball. The Reds have averaged three runs per game over their last seven games. Samardzija has adopted more of a pitch-to-contact approach to allow himself to work deeper into games as he has traded some four-seam fastballs in for two-seamers. That change was beneficial against the Reds in his last start and should be again here against a struggling offense. While Samardzija is striking out fewer batters, he's also walking fewer and is trending positively in home runs allowed.

We'll trust in the advanced metrics and expect Simon's regression to start here and look for another fine outing from Samardzija.

PLAY: CHICAGO CUBS


Pick Made: Apr 28 2014 5:04AM PST
> See Bryan Leonard's Premium Picks
Start with Trust!
Privacy: 100% - No Spam Ever!   Security: Yes - SSL encrypted!   Satisfaction: Guaranteed!
Pregame.com is located and licensed in Las Vegas, Nevada.