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Sun, 04/27/14 - 2:15 PM Marco D'Angelo | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet 960 STL (-175) Pinnacle vs 959 PIT
Results: W, $300
Analysis:
PLAY:  ST LOUIS
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY



Those that follow me on a regular basis know that I am not a person who generally will look at games at this price level but I have to make an exception and this why. St Louis sends Adam Wainwright to the mound who has been almost untouchable this season for St Louis. In his last 2 starts he has not allowed a run in 16 innings of work. He gave up just 6 hits while striking out 11 in those 2 starts. Last season he faced the Pirates 5 times including 3 times in September & October where he allowed just 2 runs in 23 innings of work. He had a Strikeout to walk ratio of 23-3. Yes he totally dominated the Pirates that was when the Pirates had a better hitting line up. Wainwright pitches with revenge for a 2-1 loss in Pittsburgh earlier this year. He will face Edinson Volquez who will be facing St Louis for the second time and although he was on the winning end of that 2-1 decision in Pittsburgh he has never enjoyed that kind of success against St Louis as in 12 career starts against St Louis he has a ERA of 5.19 and a WHIP of 1.36. This alone is enough to put me on St Louis but the Pirates have bigger problems as they put Russell Martin on the DL yesterday along with closer Jason Grilli. The Pirates will actually missMartin more as he is one of the most underrated catchers in Baseball and has done a great job handling these Pirate pitchers especially the younger guys. His leadership behind the plate will be sorely missed. Now on to the stats in this one. Both teams have been struggling to score runs so I much prefer to have my money on the stud pitcher in this match up. Note that when Wainwright starts following a loss St Louis is 62-29 in his career. St Louis is 19-5 following a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates struggle against good strikeout pitchers as so far this year when facing a pitcher that averages 5 K's or more a game that Pirates are 0-7 with the Pirates averaging just 2 runs a game in those 7 games. Personally given the pitching match up and the injuries to Pittsburgh this line should be -200 so we are getting line value. Part of the value comes from Wainwright having some soreness in his knee this week. Let me just say that he wouldn't be pitching today if he wasn't good to go. You would not risk your franchise pitcher on a start in April if he wasn't healthy. I have St Louis winning this 5-2.

TAKE ST LOUIS as MARCO'S 3* NL GAME OF THE WEEK




Pick Made: Apr 27 2014 8:56AM PST
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