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Goodfella | today's note
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Free Pick: Detroit at Atlanta
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Wed, 02/19/14 - 11:10 PM Fezzik | CBB Total
double-dime bet 784 Colorado / 783 Ariz. St Over 143.5 5Dimes
Results: L, -$220
Analysis:

783 Asu/Colo OVER 143.5 2 stars

ALSO:  LEAN to COLO -4.5 (likely worth a 1/4 unit bet)

ALSO:  the Colo -4.5 with OVER 143.5 likely worth a 1/4 unit bet also)

BONUS  776 UNDER 130.  2* Bet Like A Pro Play.   776 Ill/Min UNDER 130.   I gave out the 1st half UNDER 60.5 as a free play, but the 2* BlP play was the game UNDER 130.   This package is for the 783 OVER game, but I didn't want to have you bet the late 2* game OVER, and miss on my other 2* play that is almost as strong.   NOTE, if you do bet the 1st half UNDER 60.5 on Ill/Minny for say 1/2 a unit, then you might consider betting only 1.5 units on the game UNDER 130 (they are obviously massively correlated).

*** VERY IMPORTANT PRO SECRET ON PARLAYS **** When you like the OVER and a favorite of -3 to -6, it typically makes sense to sprinkle in a parlay FAV to OVER as the foul fest correlation will likley help you.  If your team is UP 6-13 you usually will get a flurry of points late in the game.  OF course, it's not a lock it helps you as you could be up over 15 and then the final minute will be very quiet.   (The Flip side is dogs of 4 to 8 points often are good parlays with unders)

Colorado's Season was going great 3-0 in conference and ahead of Washington.  THEN, all everything Guard Dinwiddy went down, and blink and Colo was 4-4 in conference, with them scoring in the 50s in ALL of their losses.  One of those losses was to ASU were they went down 51-72 and somehow shot 9/24 FTs.

However, with Booker taking charge this team is BACK, playing solid basketball with their offense clicking, it just took time for them to adjust, and Colo is 4-1 the last 5.

ASU pretty much plays to the pace of the team they are playing .  They were VERY happy to play slow vs. NO2 Az, and got the upset in a low scoring game.  With that win they are now on a 6-1 run.

With BOTH teams feeling very good, AND on winning rolls, I expect having the late game ESPNU game 8pm Start (9pm local time) to produce a happy action fun game where they roll out the ball and play fast.

Low (basketball) IQ Carson of ASU was last seen dunking the ball with .7 seconds left up 1 vs. AZ instead of dribbling out the clock.  Further, he hung on the rim for 5 seconds desperately trying to get T'd up while the crowd stormed the court.  THIS guy also was quoted after the 1st game as saying "We KNEW colo ONLY has 1 guy that can hurt us at all  from 3, so we just shut down Booker and they were done"

........Needless to say I expect a VERY angry herd of stampeding Buffaloes to be ready to Score and Score some more tonight...........

 



Pick Made: Feb 19 2014 10:19AM PST
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