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Sun, 02/16/14 - 8:55 PM Fezzik | NBA Total
double-dime bet 852 WEST / 851 EAST Under 150.0 William Hill
Results: L, -$220
Analysis:

**** QUICK NOTE ON LIVE WAGERING.   I am not tweeting what to play, I'm relying on the last 8 year's data.  1st and 4Q have averaged mid 60s.  2nd and 3rd Qtrs have averaged high 70s!

I really don't care if they score 55 or 80 in the 1st qutr........ditto 2nd nd 3rd qtr.     2nd and 3rd Qtrs are high scoring in this game, 1st and 4th qtrs not so much.

852 All Star Game UNDER 293, 2 stars (still 293.5 at LVH and other spots, but aok to play at a lesser number).

Projected Final   West 144 East 141.

NBA All Star Games typically follow the same pattern.  The 1st quarter starts out slower as the players adjust, then the 'hidden half' of the 2ndQtr 3rd Qtr is pure happy action fun time.   THEN, the teams start trying to win in the 4th quarter, and the pace finally slows.

LIVE WAGERING PLAYS:

1.  2 stars.  Play OVER at the end of the 1st qutr

2.  1 stars.   Play UNDER at the end of the 3rd qtr (I typically bet 2 units on this, but since we already have 2 units on the game UNDER sticking with 1, but 1.5 units is fine also).

NON OFFICIAL PLAYS (Not Widely Available Props) 

1.  Free Play Prop Bet  (William Hill).   I haven't seen this anywhere else, but if you see it 1 unit on largest lead OVER 15.5 -135 (good play up to -150).    BUT NOT AN OFFICIAL PLAY ....as not widely available.

2.  1st QUARTER UNDER 72-115

 

NOTE:  System only goes up to 270.....so I just put in "UNDER 150" to get this one in the system.

I know the NBA All Star Game (like the NHL and before this year NFL), has seen nothing but OVERS in recent years.  However, there is a saying in Wall Street "Trees cannot grow to the sky".

It's time to fade the tree growth, as the old school fossil boomkers, slow to make adjustments to this total, have finally said "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!" and moved this thing up to 293.5.

At THAT number, if you had played the last 5 All star games yo went 4-1 Under.   (265, 280, 291, 301, 281).    If you played the 55 games BEFORE that under in regulation time, you went 55-0 going UNDER 293.5.   You get the idea.   A MASSIVE adjustment has been made.

The East, having lost 3 straight will surely take this game slightly more seriously.   Further, they 'know' the higher scoring it is, the more likely they will lose to the West.......where the players are more used to silly happy action fun time pacing.   This is not to say the East won't play that game, just to say they won't play it to the point of total silly basketball all 48 minutes.

Books have been slow to put up quarters/props.  Check back tomorrow at noon PST and  again at 3pm PST for many more bets on the game!



Pick Made: Feb 15 2014 9:29AM PST
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