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Sun, 02/02/14 - 6:30 PM Brady Kannon | NFL Side
double-dime bet 101 SEA 8.5 (-260) Hilton vs 102 DEN
Results: W, $200
Analysis: The Grand Finale. Yes, it's The SuperBowl. For the first time in many years we actually get the two number one seeds and it ought to be a dandy - with the number one offense in the league taking on the number one defensive team. I actually made a prop bet that one team would not lead by more than 13.5 points. The "No" was an underdog but I think this game will be pretty tight most of the way. When I do my numbers for this contest, if you just take the last two playoff games, I have The Broncos by between 2.5 and 3.. so the line from that perspective seems spot on. However, when I incorporate the numbers from the regular season as well, I get Seattle as the right side and a great deal of it has to do with turnovers and strength of schedule. The Broncos played a below average schedule in the regular season and in the playoffs they have taken on The Chargers and The Patriots - by no means slouches - but The Seahawks have taken on the best two teams in football other than themselves (and The Broncos) in The Saints and The 49'ers. Seattle has played San Francisco 3-times this year. They have played New Orleans twice. They have played The Colts, The Panthers, and The Cardinals twice. This team has been tested at the highest level. Denver meanwhile played The Chiefs, Patriots, and Chargers as the highest rated teams on their schedule - teams that I rate lower than almost each of Seattle's top tier opponents. Looking at turnovers, if you have been watching the playoffs, you will know that this is paramount to Seattle's success and I feel they will win this battle on SuperBowl Sunday as well. Including the regular season, The Seahawks turnover differential is +23. Denver is -2. Outside of this, it is very difficult to make a case for either side that cannot be countered equally by the opponent. A couple of things I like about The Broncos.. their defense has been terrific in the playoffs, holding each team to season low yard totals and only giving up 16.5-points on average, only a half point more than Seattle. And of course, Peyton Manning. He has been brilliant in the two playoff games and I expect him to do well again today. A couple of things I like about The Seahawks.. Denver has not played against a defense like this all year. Denver also has not faced a dynamic quarterback like Russell Wilson all year. They played against Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III but I'm not about to say that these are like seeing the same movie twice.

Once you get past the numbers, the match ups, and the strengths and weaknesses, you can take a look at the trends coming into the game for each team and the SuperBowl history trends.. and yep, it all comes up nearly a wash. As I stated earlier, I can make a case for Denver being a 2-to-3 point favorites but I believe I can do the same with Seattle. In fact, they did truly open up as a 1-point favorite when the game was first posted immediately following the Conference Championships.. so my thought is this.. the majority of the tickets are on The Broncos and if the number ever gets to 3, it is going to get pounded back down. Even if it does not get to 3, I feel this game is going to close with Denver being about a 1 or 1.5-point favorite. That being the case, I like playing a 6-point teaser and teasing The Seahawks up to +8.5. Up through 3, 7, and 8. I am not comfortable laying 2.5 with Denver as I don't see a real edge here. I like Seattle's defense to be a major factor in keeping this game close, and therefore, I like getting a great number with a dog that has every chance in the world to win outright. Now, what do we put on the other leg of the teaser? I like OVER 41. UNDER 53 looks good too but if this game is close like I expect, I would not want to be rooting against any scoring in crunch time. I expect Manning is going to get his and Seattle will have to keep up. During the regular season, these teams combined for 63-points if you take their average scoring outputs. In the playoffs, it adds up to 48. On defense they gave up a total of 39 in the regular season and 32.5 in the playoffs. The weather has been a huge topic this week and will continue to be so all the way until the final whistle blows I imagine but the key is wind.. and right now, it does not look like we are going to get anything crazy in the way of wind - or weather for that matter. It will definitely be chilly but I think these offenses will be just fine. And if the cold is just enough to throw them off a tick, turnovers could lead to scoring as well.

Six Point Two Team Teaser:  Seahawks +8.5 and OVER 41
I make the final score Seahawks 27 - Broncos 24

Plan your shopping wisely as I have already seen some places knock the number down to 2. Let's wrap up what has been a great NFL season, on a high note. Enjoy the game and have fun.


Pick Made: Jan 25 2014 6:35PM PST
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