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Dave Essler | today's note
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sleepyj | today's note
Free Pick: Portland at Philadelphia
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Free Pick: Nashville at Calgary
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Sun, 01/19/14 - 3:05 PM Brady Kannon | NFL Side
double-dime bet 302 DEN 4.0 (-125) Sportsbook.ag vs 301 NEP
Results: W, $200
Analysis: The Rematch. Again. Yes, Tom Brady will once again square off with Peyton Manning in what may be the greatest individual rivalry in football. Earlier this season, Manning and The Broncos broke out to a big lead only to see Mr. Brady come back and lead The Patriots to victory in overtime. This one is for keeps however as the winner goes to The SuperBowl, representing the AFC. Last week, The Broncos played somewhat conservative, looking to win the time of possession battle with the team that had been doing the same to them, in the Chargers. I don't see Denver changing their plan a whole lot this week but I see them having more success. They will run the ball against one of the very worst run defenses in the league, churning clock, and keeping Tom Brady off of the field. When The Patriots focus on stopping the run, Manning will exploit the one on one coverage with the crossing patterns and pick plays, The Broncos utilize to perfection. I see this being a long day for the injury riddled, well below average, New England defense. Keep in mind, The Broncos out gain their opponents by an average of over 100-yards per game and the only team to keep them under 400-yards in a game all season was The Chargers, the only 3-times they have been held to such all season. On the other side, we have the running game of The Patriots that looked so incredible last week but let's not forget, that was against The Colts.. who rank only a few spots higher than New England in the dungeons of NFL rushing defenses. The Broncos counter with a rush defense that is ranked in the top half dozen of the league and held the San Diego ground game to just 65-yards last week. This is the most powerful offense in football with a very good run defense, going against a team that can't stop the run. That right there is almost enough for me but let's take a look at some of the historical trends. Playoff teams that score 40 or more points are just 4-and-22 ATS the next week including just 1-and-16 ATS when the opponent is off of back to back wins. Tom Brady is just 4-and-11 ATS when playing at Denver and Broncos Head Coach, John Fox is 6-and-0 SUATS in the playoffs when favored by less than a touchdown against a less than elite team. While nearly everything for me points to The Broncos, the line here is still very important. I am not against a play on Denver -6 but I feel it is key to lay -5 or less with -4 being ideal.  Peyton's going back to New York and it's not to visit his brother. Orange Crush.

Pick Made: Jan 16 2014 9:52AM PST
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