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Free Pick: Cleveland at Pittsburgh
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Sun, 01/12/14 - 4:40 PM Brady Kannon | NFL Side
double-dime bet 117 SDC 10.5 (-135) 5Dimes vs 118 DEN
Results: W, $200
Analysis: The Rubber Match. For the 3rd time this season, The San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos will square off with each winning on the opponent's home field earlier in the year. I felt very good about San Diego being able to win outright last week at Cincinnati but not so much here today.. most of all, I just feel the line is too high. These two squads match up quite evenly offensively - and defensively for that matter, too. They both have two of the highest 3rd down conversion rates in football. They both have two of the highest average yards gained per play in football and their turnover margin is equal. While their defenses are the weaker part of their teams, both The Broncos and Chargers are better against the run than they are the pass.. the point here is that they match up quite similarly across the board and for that reason, I will side with the double digit underdog. From a situational standpoint, I love Phillip Rivers' success late in the season, in division, on the road, and as an underdog - all roles in which he flourishes. He is also 6-and-2 in his last 8-trips to Denver. Peyton Manning on the other hand, has lost 4-out of his last-5 battles at home with The Chargers. I am not putting a ton of stock in Manning's struggles in the playoffs or the notion that he struggles in cold weather but what I do think is important here is that it puts all the pressure on Manning and Denver in this game, while The Chargers are on a bit of a free roll as they did not necessarily expect to be where they are today. And finally, in addition to San Diego matching up well in all aspects with The Broncos, I don't think it hurts that San Diego Head Coach, Mike McCoy is a former member of the Denver staff. Let's not forget, the line in the game is very important. Most stores are dealing 9.5 but there are still 10's out there. If one can get a 10 now, I would take it. If not, I would wait as by game time, I would expect the 10's to pop back up, if not higher. If +9 or less is the best one can find, I would probably pass as 10 is just such a much better number. I also like this game to go Over the total as you can see in my Free Pick Video posted on Pregame.com earlier this week. I think we get an offensive game here with The Chargers keeping it close enough to cash a ticket. Watch the line movement and shop wisely.. and Go Chahjuhz, Go!

Pick Made: Jan 8 2014 4:14PM PST
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