Results: W, $300Analysis: ***** CFB 3* TRUE
STEAM BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR *****
UNDER 69 AUB/FSU.....(3*)
A perfect example of how "public" money outweighs "wiseguy"
money in football, especially in the post-season because even
though I was able to confirm as soon as lines went up weeks ago via
multiple mover sources that they were steaming UNDER...this total
continues to climb due to public money on the OVER.
Bottom line, just like styles make fights...styles also make
games and with both teams having potent offenses, I expect that to
cross each other out and we'll see both teams try to control the
clock rather than allow for a shoot-out. I also expect both
defenses, who have had extra time to prepare to have a major
advantage tonight..then coupled with the nerves since these are not
your usual "BCS Championship" teams, and I expect a much lower
scoring game than the total reflects.
Now I can sit here and waste your time typing all kinds of
different stats and trends that are readily available to EVERY
bettor on the planet to try and look smart..but that would be a
waste of my time and yours. Instead I'll simply tell you that I
know for fact from multiple sources including the #NFAC crew that
they all believe this total is just way too high. And after taking
a position when lines first went up, they plan on doing so AGAIN to
increase bet size..
So knowing that, along with my own handicapp which support and
reflects a lower scoring game..and adding in the fact the total is
already shaded towards bettors bias (OVER), and it was an easy
decision to make my biggest bet of the Bowl Season on the
The only question left is WHEN to place that bet and I will
inform you that I already placed half of it at UNDER 69 since it's
available..and I will wait to see if some books push it up some
more as OVER money continues to come in from the public, knowing
that at the very worst, I've got the outs to get 69
Finally, we've cashed 67% ATS on our L/21 Bowl Premiums..and
as much as I believe this bet gives us even more the best of it
than those did, it's still simply one bet and I urge you all to
always practice proper money management and treat this as a
business not as a gamble, so that it continues to pay you like
Now let's do some real DAMAGE to end the Bowl Season.
Pick Made: Jan 6 2014 1:21PM PST