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Goodfella | today's note
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Mon, 01/06/14 - 8:30 PM vegas-runner | CFB Total
triple-dime bet 270 Florida St. / 269 Auburn Under 69.0 Bodog
Results: W, $300
Analysis: *****  CFB 3* TRUE STEAM BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR  *****

UNDER 69 AUB/FSU.....(3*)


A perfect example of how "public" money outweighs "wiseguy" money in football, especially in the post-season because even though I was able to confirm as soon as lines went up weeks ago via multiple mover sources that they were steaming UNDER...this total continues to climb due to public money on the OVER.

Bottom line, just like styles make fights...styles also make games and with both teams having potent offenses, I expect that to cross each other out and we'll see both teams try to control the clock rather than allow for a shoot-out. I also expect both defenses, who have had extra time to prepare to have a major advantage tonight..then coupled with the nerves since these are not your usual "BCS Championship" teams, and I expect a much lower scoring game than the total reflects.

Now I can sit here and waste your time typing all kinds of different stats and trends that are readily available to EVERY bettor on the planet to try and look smart..but that would be a waste of my time and yours. Instead I'll simply tell you that I know for fact from multiple sources including the #NFAC crew that they all believe this total is just way too high. And after taking a position when lines first went up, they plan on doing so AGAIN to increase bet size..

So knowing that, along with my own handicapp which support and reflects a lower scoring game..and adding in the fact the total is already shaded towards bettors bias (OVER), and it was an easy decision to make my biggest bet of the Bowl Season on the UNDER..

The only question left is WHEN to place that bet and I will inform you that I already placed half of it at UNDER 69 since it's available..and I will wait to see if some books push it up some more as OVER money continues to come in from the public, knowing that at the very worst, I've got the outs to get 69 again. 

Finally, we've cashed 67% ATS on our L/21 Bowl Premiums..and as much as I believe this bet gives us even more the best of it than those did, it's still simply one bet and I urge you all to always practice proper money management and treat this as a business not as a gamble, so that it continues to pay you like one.

Now let's do some real DAMAGE to end the Bowl Season.


Pick Made: Jan 6 2014 1:21PM PST
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