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Sat, 01/04/14 - 8:10 PM Brady Kannon | NFL Side
double-dime bet 103 NOS 3.0 (-135) vs 104 PHI
Results: W, $200
Analysis: At first glance, this game has the look of a high scoring offensive affair but I actually believe it may be a lower scoring game than one might think. The New Orleans defense is a top four unit in the NFL and while Philadelphia's defense ranks in the bottom four in the league, they have been getting better recently and they do force turnovers. The Eagles strength is their running game and this is the weaker part of The Saints defense. The Saints have the second best passing attack in football and The Eagles defense is at its worst against the pass. While we know The Eagles will run, I think The Saints will use the pass to set up the run. We also know how teams typically play more physical, closer to the vest, and focus more on establishing the run in the playoffs and this ought to lead to a slower paced game, taking time off of the clock, and keeping the score lower. In a lower scoring affair, we want to take the points. The Saints have been poor on the road against the spread this year but over the past 5-seasons, they have one of the best SU records on the road, in the league. Philadelphia has an abysmal record ATS at home despite getting a couple of covers late in the season against dreadful defenses in that of Washington and Chicago. The one time they struggled at home, late in the season, was against The Cardinals, a team that ranks quite high in total defense, very similarly to The Saints but actually a couple of spots worse. On offense, The Saints outstatted 13-of their 16-opponents this season and by the biggest margin of any team in the NFL. Drew Brees is 4-and-2 SUATS in his career vs. The Eagles and the Philly signal caller, Nick Foles, will be playing in his first ever playoff game. Quite a few trends in this game line up against the road team and I believe that has been factored into the line but in my numbers, I make this game Pick 'Em. So, we are getting line value, and points with what I believe is the better team. New Orleans played a far more difficult schedule and while The Eagles are certainly good, they have been getting healthy against the likes of Dallas, Chicago, Washington, Oakland, Minnesota, The Giants, and a Packers club without Rodgers. By my count, they played the second weakest schedule of all the teams in the post season. The Eagles step up big in class today for the first time since getting slaughter-housed early in the season at Denver. I don't have a problem taking 2.5 points today but I am betting you can find a 3 by kickoff. And finally, Philadelphia is 0-6-and-1 ATS vs. a visiting winning team. Better team, better defense, getting points. Geaux Saints.

Pick Made: Jan 2 2014 2:54PM PST
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