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Tue, 12/31/13 - 5:05 PM Andre Gomes | NBA Total
double-dime bet 506 ORL / 505 GSW Over 202.0 Westgate
Results: L, -$220
NBA - 505 Golden State Warriors @ 506 Orlando Magic

Plays #3 & 4


It's absurd how Golden State struggled so much to beat Cleveland last Sunday. They had a 30/17 A/TO on that game, while Cleveland had just 21/16, besides the fact that the Warriors doubled the number of points in the paint that Cleveland scored: 48-24! The Cavaliers were competitive because they shot 10-16 (62.5%) 3pts, while the Warriors shot just 10-33 3pts.

Orlando is coming from a nice win against Detroit, as that was a good match up for them, as their defense is built to protect well the basket and they are also a good defensive rebounding team. It was easy for them to stop Detroit's offense, as they need to score near the basket to be efficient. Orlando had a clear match up edge against the Pistons and won that game because of this factor. Things will be completely different against Golden State, as the Magic's are just #23 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #25 on pick and roll roll man defense, #25 on spot up defense and #19 on off screens defense! Therefore, I believe the Warriors's offense will pound Orlando, as they are an elite outside shooting team, while showing a great ball movement lately with 27/13, 32/21 and 30/17 A/TO on their last three games! The Warriors have been also playing at a super fast pace lately, with their last six games having pace factors of 102.34, 103.14, 92.24, 95.90, 96.81 and 95.03! 

On the other hand, Orlando's offense has been playing well down low with 42, 58 and 46 points in the paint on their last three games, while showing a nice post up game (#7 in the league), with 0.91 PPP for the season, but a nice 1.07 PPP on their last five games! They are also showing a better transition game lately and even though they are inconsistent on long range shooting, Victor Oladipo's removal from the starting line up is helping them on improving this area, as he is struggling on outside shooting this season. Golden State's defense is jump #18 on post up defense and David Lee's poor defense will certainly be exposed by Glen Davis today. I believe the Warriors will have a huge offensive game today, getting an easy win in the process, on a game that promises to be a very high scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking both Golden State and the Over in here.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Golden State Warriors (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick Made: Dec 31 2013 1:42PM PST
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