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Tue, 12/31/13 - 3:05 PM Andre Gomes | NBA Total
Free pick 504 IND / 503 CLE Over 197.0 5Dimes
Results: L, 0
Analysis:
NBA - 503 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 504 Indiana Pacers

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Indiana is coming from another nice win this time against Brooklyn by 105-91. Their offense has been excellent lately with offense rates of 119.13, 114.21, 105.85 and 116.36 over their last four games. This improvement on offense is due to a better efficiency on post ups, but especially on the outside shooting where they are excellent with 39.2% 3pts over their last 10 games, the #5 best mark in the league. Looking at Cleveland's defensive ratings lately (105.06, 107.34, 124.74, 125.21, 106.08, 113.77, 118.70, 108.12, 109.48 and 103.82 on their last 10 games), it's hard not to imagine Indiana having another huge offensive game today.

The Cavaliers are using a 3-guards lineup with regularity lately and on their last game against the Warriors, they used Kyrie Irving for 40 minutes, Jarrett Jack for 34 minutes and Dion Waiters for 39 minutes. Of course that with such lineup, their defense is struggling. So, the key in here will be to know how the Cavaliers's offense will play against the Pacers's elite defense. Cleveland is now playing faster due to Andrew Bynum being out of the rotation and they have been improving on offense a lot lately, especially on pick and roll ball handler plays, with Kyrie Irving showing his best basketball, while Jarrett Jack is finally waking up after a slow start of the season. Thanks to this, the Cavaliers are always #2 in the league on pick and roll ball handler plays with 0.89 PPP! In comparison, the Nets are playing on a similar way as the Cavaliers with small guards and they had 8-15 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays against Indiana last Saturday for a nice 1.04 PPP! Therefore, I expect the Cavaliers to have a similar or even better outcome today on offense.

On the last game between these two teams, Indiana won by 89-74, in a game where George Hill didn't play and Cleveland's offense was still a complete mess. Therefore, that was a game played on the early season where Indiana was winning their games via defense. Things are now different and they are on a 4-games streaks where they have scored 103 points or more. I expect a high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes


Pick Made: Dec 31 2013 10:01AM PST
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