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Stephen Nover | today's note
Free Pick: Los Angeles at Houston
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Fezzik | today's note
Free Pick: Minnesota at San Francisco
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JR ODonnell | today's note
Free Pick: Chicago at Boston
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Tue, 12/31/13 - 7:30 PM Greg Shaker | CBB Total
triple-dime bet 550 Butler / 549 Villanova Over 132.0 Pinnacle
Results: W, $300
Analysis: I have a very strong number on this game of 138.4 and well beyond what they have posted for this one. There are a number of factors that produce this number including most that we don't talk about much here. One key here is the fact that Villanova is not going to want to get into half court play and they will transition as often as possible. We have Butler pegged as a "Play Along" team meaning that they will play up-tempo when their opposition does. That along with other things gives us great value for this one and not limited to the fact that the visitors will be driving the bucket and most likely getting to the Free Throw Line a lot. An easy 3% Play for me here..

As you recall in previous years I am not going to be talking much about the Totals in the NBA and CBB because most of the factors that I use to determine our number verses their number is something that I want to keep between my ears and not Oddsmakers Ears. We have had great success with these plays for a very long time and keeping them guessing is the right thing to do. I will tell you where the number is, where it is going, and why. We will always wait until Numbers are Widely Available with Full Limits, but as always I encourage you to bet ASAP after release.




Pick Made: Dec 31 2013 7:32AM PST
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