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Free Pick: BYU at California
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Free Pick: Stanford at UCLA
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Free Pick: Detroit at New Jersey
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Tue, 12/31/13 - 8:05 PM Dr. Ed Meyer | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 513 POR 4.5 (-110) 5Dimes vs 514 OKL
Results: W, $200
Analysis:

The Thunder appear to be doing very well without Westbrook.  In their last game they stomped the Rockets 117-86.  Houston shot 36.5% from the field, 25% from three-point range and 54.8% from the free throw line.  It was the Rockets' worst overall shooting performance all season, but the credit should not go to the Thunder's defense.  The Rockets playing their fourth game in five days starting on Christmas and were simply tapped out.  They did not score over the first six minutes of the game and effectively mailed in the rest of the game.

NBA home teams are a combined 50-90-3 ATS with rest when they are off a win in which they never trailed.  This is strong evidence that teams get over confident in this spot.

Of their 117 points they scored against Houston, only 13 were from the free-throw line.  This qualifies them for another strong play-against system.  NBA teams are a combined 53-100-4 ATS at home with rest after a win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

As a team, Oklahoma City is 0-6 ATS (-9.75 ppg) as a home favorite after a game in which they shot at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.  The SDQL text is:

team=Thunder and HF and p:FGP - tA(p:FGP) >= 10 and date>=20110208

Portland lost 110-108 last night in New Orleans and is now playing the second of back-to-back road games.  The Blazers only committed nine turnovers, but they were beaten badly in the paint.  This is a positive indicator, as Portland is 11-0 ATS (10.95 ppg) with no rest after a road game in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers - winning every game straight up.  See for yourself with this SDQL text:

team=Trailblazers and rest=0 and p:A and p:TO<10 and date>=20070101

Note that the Blazers were favored only twice in this spot - by 2 and 3 points.  In their lone game in this spot this season, they manhandled the Spurs 115-105.

The Blazers are a team that will be able to capitalize on Westbrook's absence.  Grab the points.

MTi's FORECAST: Portland 104 OKLAHOMA CITY 102



Pick Made: Dec 31 2013 5:24AM PST
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