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Goodfella | today's note
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Tue, 12/31/13 - 12:30 PM Scott Spreitzer | CFB Side
triple-dime bet 239 Boston College 7.5 (-110) Hilton vs 240 Arizona
Results: L, -$330
Analysis: I'm taking the points with Boston College on Tuesday. We have two similar offenses in this one with both teams relying on the running game thanks to a pair of spectacular running backs. Arizona's Ka'Deem Carey rushed for 1,720 yards and 17 TDs. Boston College, though, had the most underrated RB in college football this season in Andre Williams who ran for 2,102 yards and 17 scores. Williams got his just due down the stretch and beat-out Carey for the Doak Walker award. The biggest difference between the two offenses is the way they run the football. Arizona employs a finesse style, while Boston College likes to get physical up front. U of A HC Rich Rodriguez owns a 4-4 SU lifetime bowl record with three of the four wins coming by a grand total of just 7 points. The four losses were downright ugly, losing by an average score of 43-15. In fact, Rodriguez-coached bowl teams have allowed 35 or more points in six of the eight bowl trips and an overall average of 39.6 ppg. I expect BC to be able to move the ball and finish in the endzone often in this one. The Eagles may be led by Andre Williams, but QB Chase Rettig isn't too shabby, completing 62% of his passes with 17 TDs and 6 INTs. Rettig, Williams, and BC in general, were the only team this season to "hang" with Florida State before eventually losing by 14 points. The game marked the only time this season FSU won by fewer than 27 points. Arizona did beat Oregon this season, but struggled in their other three games down the stretch, including a 58-21 blowout loss to Arizona State. Rich Rodriguez-coached teams have covered just 4 of 20 games following a loss by at least 10 points to a conference opponent. And while this is a neutral site game, they're 1-9 ATS away from home in games against teams that run for at least 4.75 yards per carry, getting out-scored by an average of 41-19! Finally, the Wildcats have covered just 15 of their last 46 as favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points. BC checks-in with a 5-0 ATS run against teams with a winning SU record. I'm backing Boston College on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Pick Made: Dec 30 2013 11:10PM PST
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