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Tue, 12/31/13 - 8:05 PM King Creole | CFB Total
triple-dime bet 246 Texas A&M / 245 Duke Over 75.0 5Dimes
Results: W, $300
Analysis:
Tuesday, Jan. 31st / 8:00pm ET - 5:00pm PT / CHICK FIL-A BOWL / Georgia Dome / Atlanta, GA
DUKE BLUE DEVILS versus TEXAS A&M AGGIES
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

The OU line in Tuesday's Chick Fil-A Bowl opened at 70 points. It's NO surprise that the line has risen to 75 to 75.5 as of Monday afternoon. And we anticipate it rising even more on New Years Eve. So get your play in ASAP.

Our service has been on numerous 'OVERS' in the SEC Conference and the ACC Conference this season. We caught on to the NEW trend of explosive SEC offenses very early in the year, and been rewarded with multiple 'Over' winners. In fact, we've gone 5-1 O/U in our SEC 'Overs' this year... including an EASY winner in the league's Championship Game (Auburn and Missouri combined for a whopping 101 points). That game (ALSO played indoors in a Dome) went OVER by +41.5 pts. And scoring in the ACC Conference is ALSO on an upswing this season. We were on multiple Florida State 'OVERS' this year, and they ended up going 9-1 O/U in their first ten games.  

Yes, we're aware that the College Bowl games started off by going 3-13 O/U in the first 16 games. And not only that, but the oddsmakers have set the bar really HIGH for the Chick Fil-A Bowl. It's the highest OU line of ALL 35 Bowl Games. But two very good offenses will be taking on two very permissive defenses in IDEAL (indoor) conditions. And in what looks like his very LAST game as a collegiate player, QB Johnny Manziel will be looking to go out with a BANG. Manziel remains an improvisational NIGHTMARE for opposing defenses. He finished with 4,418 yards of total offense and 41 touchdowns this season. Texas A&M is a particularly unfortunate draw for Duke. After having their eight-game winning streak snapped against Jameis Winston and Florida State in the ACC title game, the Blue Devils must close the season against another Heisman-winning quarterback. The Aggies come in with the #4 offense in the country (538 ypg)... and the #6 SCORING offense in the country (44 ppg). And their defense regressed BIG-TIME compared to last year. A&M allowed 31 ppg on the season... and their D allowed a whopping 460 ypg on the year (#70). That's 8 points more per-game compared to last year... and 90 ypg more than last season.

On the flip side, the job that Duke HC David Cutcliffe has done in Durham has been nothing short of remarkable. Duke captured a program-record 10 wins this season and clinched the ACC Atlantic Division. Their offense has averaged 400+ YPG in each of the last two years... and their 32 ppg scoring average on offense is also a HIGH-water mark. If this team scored 32 ppg for the year, he skies the limit against the WORST defense in the SEC (Texas A&M). The Blue Devils found some balance on offense this year as well, rushing for 174 yards per game and throwing for 234. They scored 35 or more points in SEVEN games this season. Still, it's hard to envision the Blue Devils' defense - which surrendered 569 yards to Florida State on Dec. 7 - handling Manziel and A&M's attack. Quarterback Anthony Boone, Crowder and Duke's offense must find their groove to remain within striking distance. Duke is historically a great 'OVER' team in non-conference games, going 18-7-2 O/U in the last 6+ seasons. Also 6-0-1 O/U after accumulating 275 < total yards in their last game... 9-1-1 O/U after passing for < 170 yards... 4-0 O/U off a SU loss... and 5-1 O/U after scoring < 20 pts in their last game.

In that ACC Championship game, Duke allowed Florida State to score 45 points.
9-1 O/U since 2005 / 6-0 O/U last 4 years: All College Bowl underdogs of > 7 pts who allowed 45 > points in their last game (DUKE).

When we saw that the Bowl schedule-makers made THIS game the last one of the 2013 calendar year... we jumped out of our chair with excitement. We've been ON the late New Year's Eve NIGHT Bowl game 'OVER' the Total five times in the last six seasons. It's just about ALWAYS a high-scoring game. In fact, this 'LAST' game of the calendar year has gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U.
Last year, it was the Music City Bowl that was the night-time New Years Bowl (Vandy and NC State went OVER).
Two years ago, it was the Chick Fil-A Bowl again (Auburn and Virginia went OVER).
3 years ago, it was the Meineke Bowl (Clemson and South Florida went OVER).
4 years ago, it was the Texas Bowl (Navy and Missouri went OVER).
5 years ago, it was the Armed Force Bowl (Houston and Air Force went OVER).
And 6 years ago, it was Armed Force Bowl again (California and Air Force went OVER).

Our Playbook database has this Chick Fil-A Bowl ending with a final score of 51 to 38. That's about 14 points HIGHER than the current OU lin

Pick Made: Dec 30 2013 12:55PM PST
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