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sleepyj | today's note
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Sun, 12/29/13 - 1:00 PM Bryan Leonard | NFL Side
double-dime bet 313 JAC 11.0 (-110) SportsInterAction vs 314 IND
Results: L, -$220
Analysis: 313 Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Week 17 handicapping in our eyes is all about value. Teams that are in must win situations are going to be overpriced. Teams with nothing to play for are going to be undervalued. Unlike college football where many teams throw in the towel late in the season, these are professionals who are playing for a paycheck. Therefore we are able to take advantage of line value going against the grain in the final week.
The Colts can clinch a first round buy with a win here coupled with a New England loss and a Cincinnati loss or tie. Both the Patriots and Bengals are roughly 7 point favorites so for both of those teams to lose is a long shot. Yet the lookahead line on this game a week ago was roughly 5 to 6 points less than the current number as of this writing. Chances are Indy wins this game but to expect them to win by a margin may be too much to ask.
The Jaguars have played much better ball the second half of the season and this team doesn't have any quit in them. This is a club that still comes to the park each and every week expecting to win the game. That's all we ask here with a line of this magnitude. Too many points for the Colts to lay.
PLAY JACKSONVILLE

Pick Made: Dec 28 2013 2:47PM PST
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