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Free Pick: Virginia at Virginia Tech
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Tue, 12/31/13 - 2:00 PM Greg Shaker | CFB Total
triple-dime bet 242 UCLA / 241 Virginia Tech Over 47.0 Bookmaker.com
Results: W, $300
Analysis: My number here is a very strong 54.1 and that makes this play 3%. This number is influenced more due to the UCLA Offense and defense other than anything that Va Tech is going to do. The fact is the Bruins can score and the Hokies do have some injuries on the defense that could and should impact UCLA's Passing game to the Max. But the Bruins have issues as well on defense that will allow Va Tech to move the ball as well. Without going into all of the details, UCLA has been lax stopping teams that can pass the ball and that is what VT does best. Both teams have some play makers and both teams have very good special teams. We can expect some big plays on Tuesday and most likely we can also expect some key defensive plays that will set up scores. This is a very interesting games in many respects but the bottom line is that this lower than usual number between two teams that have no natural rivalry is has tons of value for me and I am playing 3%..

11:45 CST Line Update: Not surprising to me at all that this number is dropping, especially with all of the talk about Bowls going UNDER at a high rate this year and the VT Defense as good as it is. We are actually seeing a lot of public money on the Under and that is unusual. If you have not played it yet I would wait and see if it goes to 45 which is a key number. It probably will not but it is not going to 48 so no reason not to wait and see..


Pick Made: Dec 26 2013 12:47PM PST
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