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Goodfella | today's note
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Tue, 12/31/13 - 8:05 PM Dave Essler | CFB Side
triple-dime bet 245 Duke 12.0 (-110) Bodog vs 246 Texas A&M
Results: W, $300
Analysis: There are actually some better numbers out there (I was able to bet +12.5) but for arguments sake this is the average. I don't think at these non-key number it will matter one way or the other and will explain why at some point. Basically, A & M is not FSU and I do not think Manziel gives a shit and of course the Aggies have only slightly more defense than Duke.This line is SO based on what the Aggies were and not what they ARE. If Duke was able to even HANG with FSU for 1.5 quarters before being blown out, they can stay within two scores of a lame Aggies defense. I don't care who plays QB for Duke, they've faced tougher defenses in the ACC (not much) than what the Aggies will put on the field. Duke is not one to rest on their 10 win season, while A & M is resting for the rest of the Winter, IMO. Manziel was nicked up before, and if you think he's going to take a huge chance on getting more hurt before the draft, see Clowney et all.

The Aggies have no wins against ranked opponents this season
Duke is plus-76 in scoring margin in the fourth quarter, trailing only Michigan State (plus-78) for best in the FBS
The Duke offense has excelled in goal-to-go situations this season. They're recording touchdowns on 96 percent of their goal-to-go drives.
The Aggies rank near the bottom of the SEC in most categories. The defense is allowing 6.2 yards per play which ranks them 104th in the FBS.




Pick Made: Dec 11 2013 7:45AM PST
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