Results: W, $300
Analysis: Next wee we might fade Ball
State, and they're simply no getting enough credit for beating
Indiana, who IS a Big Ten school, like it or not. If Ball State can
put up 41 on the road, they can score at home, even against South
Florida. USF is somewhat over rated in my opinion. They came back
to beat what's now a "less than we thought" team at Nevada, and in
reality that was a rather fortunate win. They only put up 34
against T-Chat, and then lose at home to a Rutgers team that really
has a hard time scoring. Many will look at this as if USF will
rebound, but they've got to play at Florida State next week. I know
it's not a Conference game, but you can't tell me they'll be overly
motivated to play Ball State.
Ball State has played AT Clemson, and was able to put up 27
points. I know that the Tigers' defense isn't all that, but it WAS
a road game against good competition. Wennings' only thrown two
picks this season, both in that Clemson game (and they still
scored). I don't trust Daniels to bounce back on the road from a
three-interception game. I suspect he will make his fair share of
plays, but he'll also make the big mistake. Last year these two
teams met in South Florida and the Bulls won 37-7, so theirs a
serious measure of revenge for the Cardinals here. In that game
Daniels had the game of his life. But, Wenning completed 24/35
passes, so he's got plenty of confidence that Ball can move the
ball. USF was also ranked 22nd in the nation at the time. This
year, they're unranked even with 16 starters returning, and Ball
returns 8 starters on offense. In the end, the Bulls are down and
disappointed about losing the Conference opener and don't have
another Conference game until they play Temple in three weeks. I
simply cannot see them, even with Skip Holtz, having enough of a
turnaround mentally to cover two scores on the road. Don't get me
wrong, Ball's defense will have their hands full, but it'll be max
effort in this one because they've got a relative mail in game
against Kent next week. Yes, they've given up points. To Clemson
(duh) and an up-tempo Indiana team, BOTH on the road. The last time
USF was a favorite of more than eight on the road was three years
ago against Western Kentucky, a game they failed to cover. Just an
unfamiliar spot for the Bulls, and not nearly enough at stake for
them to bring their "A" game.
Pick Made: Sep 17 2012 9:28AM PST