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Wed, 09/05/12 - 8:40 PM Dave Essler | NFL Side
double-dime bet 451 DAL 4.0 (-110) SportsInterAction vs 452 NYG
Results: W, $200
Analysis: FWIW, my thoughts on this game are that the public, who is one the Giants and the over, will get this half right. We've got the best two numbers we could possibly get, which over the course of time will make us money. Very few books, especially the sharper ones, went to 44.5 on this total. As most of you know, "45" is a (one of THE) key numbers in NFL totals. So, we've got it at a two points better than the opening number, and if it DOES go to 44.5 before kickoff it will A) take a lot of money and B) we are probably in trouble. However, if it IS a lower scoring game then there is far more value to taking the points. Almost 21% (from memory) of NFL games end on "3" as a spread, so we've got, what I think, is the best calculated risk/reward situation. The only thing that concerns me about this or any other NFL game right now is the replacement referees. I doubt they are any more or any less likely to miss a call or make a call, but I do think "the way" they call a game may have a dramatic effect. For example, if they let the offensive lines get away with more holding (which they could call on every play) then there will obviously be more scoring. If not, like I did witness in one particular exhibition game, the quarterbacks will be dead meat without defenses having to blitz. The TEAMS will adjust fairly quickly to how the games' being called, not unlike an NBA game. So, there you have my thoughts on "stuff", which is what your paying for. And informed opinion based on all available information at the time. 

Pick Made: Sep 5 2012 2:04PM PST
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