NFL Total: Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys

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Mon, 08/13/12 - 8:00 PM King Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet 282 OAK / 281 DAL Over 34.5 BetOnline: Results: L, -$220
Analysis: Pre-season plays are rated 1*, 2*, and 3* each

5:00PM PT - 8:00pm ET / #281-282 / Dallas Cowboys @ Oakland Raiders
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

We'll look for the HIGH-scoring tendencies in 'prime-time' games to continue tonight... with the Raiders hosting the Cowboys at 8:00pm Et. And why not? The OAKLAND RAIDERS have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in all pre-season HOME games over the last three seasons. Average OU line in those home games: 37.1 points... Average combined points: a whopping 49.7! The average Raider home game has gone OVER by more than double digits (+12.6 points per game).

The Raiders and Cowboys have played each other 4 times in the NFL 'X' season over the last nine seasons. Those games have gone 3-1 O/U. Average OU line: 34.9. Average combined points: 43.2 points per game.

In issue #1 of our PLAYBOOK football newsletter, I wrote a pre-season Over / Under article (page 12). One of the sections that we covered was the tendency for the Sunday and Monday games to be a little higher-scoring than the oddsmakers and players anticipated. Depending on the OU line in these games, the OVER has hit at an 80% rate over the last 5 years.

15-3 O/U since 2008: All preseason GAME ONES or TWOS on a SUNDAY or MONDAY..... when the OU line is < 37 points (like tonight). Yesterday's Indianapolis / St Louis game was one of those exact same qualifying situations. The OU line in that one was 34.5 points. And the final score was 38 to 3. The OVER cashed by + 6.5 points. So we'll dive right back in with another high-than-anticipated final score out on the West Coast.

Tonight's game is one of those in which the host is laying a VERY 'SHORT' amount of points. At last look, Oakland was -1 in the game... with the OU line at 34.5 to 35.5 points. In these 'tight line' games, the OVER has been a very solid play as of late (in all games, not just Week One).... providing the OU line is not too low.

In fact, in the last three seasons... the numbers are:
11-1 O/U for ALL preseason home favorites of -2 or less points (RAIDERS)... with an OU line of GREATER than (>) 34 points. These games have already gone a PERFECT 4-0 /U over the weekend. The 'Over' winners were: Steelers @ Eagles (win by +12 pts).... Ravens @ Falcons (win by +13.5 pts)... Giants @ Jaguars (win by +28.5 pts)... and Rams @ Colts (win by +6.5 pts).

Pick Made: Aug 13 2012 8:51AM PST
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