Cluber can be had or he can be tough, but with Middlebrooks out, along with Nava, Sweeney, and of course Ortiz, only the top of the Boston lineup is really capable of doing damage. What really strike me here is that over the last week the Boston bullpen has sported and ERA of 7.41, and only once in the last ten starts has Lester pitched past the seventh inning. The Indians bullpen is far more rested, and yes I realize that they've had their issues, but they've showed signs of life of late.

Lester himself is 0-5 and Boston is 1-6 in his last seven starts, and his ERA is 7.49. With those numbers, even against a team that has had issues against LHP, we've got to take the home team with a free run. The Indians look to win a series on Sunday while Boston has their bags packed for Baltimore. The weather should be overcast, possible showers, and a fairly stiff breeze blowing in from left. The total appears to be dropping, giving that much more value to the run line. And since the All-Star break, Lester has an ERA of 8.79 and has allowed seven bombs in 28 innings and opponents are hitting about .300 against him. Lefties have less power, but don't hit for much less average, and that's just not backable at -160 on the road, so we'll take the safe rout and venture that Kluber keeps the ball in the park and Cleveland in the game. 

We don't need Cleveland to win, although I think they will, but at this price we'll make this bet almost every time. This is essentially the same information or the same "type" of information and depth you'll get on football plays as well, for those of you still considering your options. We'll be capping every game, but the bets we make are well thought out and usually well explained, so there's not usually any question(s) as to why we make a play.