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Thu, 08/09/12 - 7:00 PM
Dave Essler
| NFL Side
dime bet
252
BUF
2.5 (-110) BetOnline
vs
251
WAS
Results: W, $100
Analysis:
I make no claims of being able to get rich in the NFL Preseason, and will bet accordingly. We do not need the money and have five months to work on being in the black. However, we'll put our best plays forward. First off, NFL home teams win 60% of the NFLX games, and we don't lay points on the road in the regular season, so why should we do it now? Yes, I know what Shanahan's preseason record is, but let's just look at the situation. Griffin is a rookie, then you have Rex, then you have another rookie in Cousins (who I actually like, FWIW) going against an established and fairly deep defense. You simply cannot tell me they (the rookies) won't make mistakes on the road. Buffalo is a ball control team, quite deep at running back, and have experienced quarterbacks. I just don't see the value in not taking the points here, and quite frankly this line opened at -2 for the Bills for a reason. Another reason I will make this bet is that Tyler Thigpen and Vince Young are battling for the #2 position. They will BOTH be given ample opportunities and they are veterans, so I'll take my chances that they play late and against Washington's third string defense. I will take the 4+ points off the opening number for another reason, too. Is the public simply going to own the NFL in Vegas? I doubt it. So, again, we're simply being realistic with our expectations of long term winning and not trying to build a huge bankroll or a ton of sales. This really is a marathon, and anyone that thinks otherwise is, well, delusional. My goal is an always has been to keep my client in the game year after year with a little variance as is humanly possible.
Pick Made: Aug 9 2012 6:00AM PST
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