I like the Reds to bounce back strong tonight behind Homer Bailey. Cincinnati is 17-3 since the All-Star break. The Reds are 10-1 in their last 11 games with all but one of those victories coming by more than one run.

The Padres caught the Reds dragging last night as Cincinnati had just returned from sweeping six games on the road. The Reds won't be flat tonight and are much stronger offensively than San Diego.

The Padres are eight games below .500 on the road and rank second-to-last in scoring.

Bailey is going through his best stretch with a 1.43 ERA in five July starts. He has a 3.18 ERA during his last five starts against the Padres - all Cincinnati victories.

Padres starter Jason Marquis is a journeyman on the downside of his career. He's won his last three starts, but the Padres supported him with 22 runs during this time frame. Marquis is not likely to get that type of support against a hot Homer Bailey and a surging Reds squad while pitching at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park.

The Padres' offense is better on the road, but they can't match the Reds' power and speed.