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Sat, 07/28/12 - 8:05 PM Marco D'Angelo | MLB RunLine
double-dime bet 928 TEX -1.5 (-110) JustBet vs 927 CWS
Results: L, -$220
Analysis: PLAY:  TEXAS -1.5 RUNS
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY

For me to look at a game as a run line play I have to feel that we have a huge pitching mismatch on our hands and folks that is exactly what I see here. The White Sox send Philip Humber to the mound who has only made it past the 5th inning once in his last 5 starts. He has been hit hard in 4 of his last 5 starts  as he has given up 20 runs in 18 1/3 innings in those 4 starts. He did have one good start mixed in the last 5 as he held Boston to 2 runs over 6 innings. It must be noted that Boston has been in a scoring slump. In Humber's night starts this year the opposition is averaging 6.8 runs per game. Texas sends Matt Harrison to the mound who prior to his last start he had 7 straight starts in which he held the opposition to 2 runs or less. In his last start he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings of work. It must be noted that he gave up 3 runs in the first 2 innings then was on cruise control until the 7th when he gave up the 4th run. I see him shutting down the White Sox just as he did the 2 other times he faced them this year. On July 5th he lost a 2-1 pitchers duel against Quintana. On April 8th he shutout the White Sox on 4 hits over 6 innings in a 5-0 shutout. Over the last 2 years when Texas has been installed as a Favorite of -150 more they are 80-33 and they are averaging 6 runs a game in those 113 games. When Harrison starts and is a favorite of -150 or more the opposition is averaging just 1.6 runs per game. Yes just 1.6 runs. Add in the fact Texas lost the opener of this series makes Texas a high percentage play in game 2 as following a loss Texas is 71-38 in their next game the last 2 years.  I see no reason not to lay the -1.5 Runs here as my projection has Texas winning 7-3.
 
TAKE TEXAS -1.5 as MARCO'S RUN LINE GAME OF THE WEEK

Pick Made: Jul 28 2012 8:15AM PST
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