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Wed, 06/06/12 - 9:00 PM King Creole | NBA Total
triple-dime bet 722 OKL / 721 SAN Under 202.5 SportsInterAction
Results: L, -$330
Analysis:
6:00pm PT - 9:00pm ET / Game Six / San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder
3*** BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL

After going 'OVER' in Games Four and Five of this series, the OPPOSITE side is the call on Wednesday night... as the Thunder looks to clinch the series. The emphasis on tonight's play is based on NBA Playoff ELIMINATION games. We're talking EXTREME pressure here.... where one (or BOTH) of the teams involved has their Playoff lives on the line. It's a scenario that's perfect for a LOWER-than-anticipated final score in a game. The players are tight... the rims are even tighter... and the basket looks even smaller. Offenses tend to be much more deliberate and slow... with half-court basketball taking center stage. EVERY offensive possession is played like it's the teams LAST one. To expect a liberal amount of points (particularly with a relatively HIGH Over / Under line) is not realistic. So let's first review some of the ELIMINATION game numbers from seasons past.

Prior to this season, ELIMINATION games had gone 57-90-4 O/U since the 2003 season. In Games 4 or 5 of a series, the numbers have been a bland 33-37-2 O/U. But in Games 6 or 7 of a Playoff series, the numbers shoot up to 70% UNDERS (24-53-2 O/U).  

In Round One of a series, the overall numbers come out to 31-47-2 O/U. And the DEEPER we get into the Playoffs, the stronger the UNDER results are. In Round Two or LATER in the Playoffs, the results are 26-43-2 O/U. That includes a bland 15-11-1 O/U in all Games 4 and 5. BUT in Games 6 or 7 of a series, the results improve to 11-32-1 O/U. That's 74% of ALL games in Round 2 or greater.... and in Games 6 or 7 of a series.

Now, let's see if the high percentage of UNDERS has played true to form in THIS season's 2012 Playoffs. In ELIMINATION Games 6 and 7, the results have been even stringer this season. From an overall percentage of 70% UNDERS over the last 10 years..... to 2-7 O/U so far THIS season. That's 78% of ALL games in the 2012 Playoffs that have gone UNDER the Total.

The Thunder went down 0-2 to start this series. They have since ripped off 3 STRAIGHT wins in a row.
0-6 O/U since 2001: All NBA Playoff GAME SIX home teams playing off 3 or more SU wins in a row (Thunder) when the OU line is > 173 points.

Let's run a query for all Playoff Games SIX or SEVEN when the OU line is on the high side.
2-14 O/U since 2002 (88% UNDERS): All NBA Playoff GAME 6 or 7 non-division home favorites (Thunder) when the OU Line is in the range of 200 to 210 points.

A Day of the Week query also suggests a LOW-scoring outcome for elimination games.
0-5 O/U since 1999: All NBA Playoff GAME 6 or 7 on a WEDNESDAY...

EACH of the last two games of this series have gone OVER the Total. Yet, the oddsmakers have still not made a major move on the line (It continues to hover in the 201-203 range).
4-16-1 O/U since 1994: All ROUND THREE road dogs of +3 > pts (Spurs) in Game THREE or greater.... playing off 2 or more 'Overs' in a row. These teams have gone 1-9 O/U since the 2003 season.

0-5 O/U since 2004: All #1 SEED teams (Spurs) versus a #2 SEED opponent (Thunder) in ANY Game 6 or Game 7 of the Playoffs.

'Tightening the screws': In their Playoff HISTORY, the San Antonio Spurs have gone 2-16 O/U on the road when off a SU Playoff HOME loss....

Pick Made: Jun 6 2012 9:14AM PST
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