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Thu, 03/22/12 - 10:21 PM King Creole | CBB Sides
triple-dime bet 817 Florida 1.5 (-110) 5Dimes vs 818 Marquette
Results: W, $300
Analysis:
Thursday, 3-22-2012 / US Airways Center / West Regional / Phoenix, AZ
Marquette Golden Eagles (#818) vs Florida Gators (#817)
3*** BEST BET on: FLORIDA GATORS plus the points

It would probably be prudent to lock in your play at the current Wednesday afternoon line of Florida +1.5 to +2 points..... JUST in CASE....
The 'just in case' involves the current minor controversy that Marquette is going through. All of a sudden, an incident involving underage Golden Eagle basketball players consuming alcohol back in January has made it back to the front page. Of course, proper penalties and suspensions were taken care of at that time. But it's curious that this incident is once again on the front burner. It shouldn't be much of a distraction for the Golden Eagles... but it would be smart to lock in our play on the other side ASAP anyway.

Did you know?
The FLORIDA GATORS have been the most PROFITABLE 'Big Dance' team in the last 20 years. Their overall record in this time frame is 27-14-1 ATS across the board (ANY role). They've gone 10-1 ATS vs any #1 thru #4 seeds.... and 14-4 ATS in Round Three ant out (including a PERFECT 5-0 ATS when playing off a DD ATS Tourney win). On the flips side, we note that Marquette is 1-5 ATs as NCAA Tourney favs pf -5 < points... and 1-5 ATS in the Tourney vs any opponent off BB SU wins.

Both teams are PERFECT versus the spread in the Big Dance so far. In fact, the Gators also covered in their last Conference Tourney game (Lost but covered vs Kentucky).
7-1-1 ATS since 2002: All ROUND THREE underdogs playing off 3+ ATS wins (FLORIDA) vs any opponent off BB ATS wins (Marquette).

Marquette is a #2 seed... whole Florida is a #7 seed.
ROUND THREE #3 seed favorites (Marquette) have gone 2-10 ATS when playing off BB ATS wins.

The Gators beat up on Norfolk State last Sunday by a score of 84 to 50 (34-pt win).
7-1 ATS since 1998: All NCAA Tourney underdogs (FLA) Playing off a SU Tourney win of 30 > points.

Norfolk State was one of the minor conference teams (we call 'em "Z" teams in our database) that only made the Big Dance thanks to an upset win in their Conference Tourney Championship game.  
6-0 ATS since 1993: All ROUND THREE underdogs of < 9 points (FLORIDA) playing off a Round Two DOUBLE-DIGIT win against a 'Z' team.

Norfolk State was just a .500 team in that Sunday game vs the Gators.
6-1 ATS since 1991: All ROUND THREE teams playing off a SUATS win (FLA) against a .550 or less opponent.

Going back to each teams' performances in their respective Conference Tourneys. Florida lost in the Semi-Final round to Kentucky. And Marquette lost in the 1st Round vs Louisville.
6-1-1 ATS last 3 years: All ROUND THREE teams who LOST in their Conference Tourney SEMI-FINAL round (FLA).
0-4 ATS last 3 years: All ROUND THREE favs of > 1 pt (Marquette) who LOST in their Conference Tourney FIRST-ROUND.

BIG EAST teams have gone 5-13-1 ATS since 1992 as ROUND THREE favorites. That includes 1-7 ATS as shorter favs of < 7 points (Marquette).

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE teams have gone 10-2 ATS in ROUND THREE since 2005. And shorter dogs of < 6 points (FLA) have gone 7-1 ATS dating all the way back to 1991.

Pick Made: Mar 21 2012 3:03PM PST
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