CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

vegas-runner — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 17:37:30 GMT

Thanks fellas...UNCG got us a nice Winner last night...VR

Guevones...I didn't like trying to middle unless I was able to get at least one of the sides at +2...And now that I do it for myself, I use the same guidelines...

And the Wiseguys try to bet +1.5 most of the time also...

Just last night we saw "5" GAMES that ended by 2PTS or less...So if you can get BOTH Teams at a DOG PRICE...with one of them better than +1...I think it's a profitable middle opportunity...

What you need to remember is that although the Outfits are hoping to catch a middle...More times than not, they don't have the EXACT amounts on each side...So they end up with a position whether they want it or not because there are so many groups behind these moves that it makes it difficult to get all your money down at the exact number that you hoped for...

Great conversations on these TRUE STEAM BLOGS Fellas...and Thanks again for all your support, VR

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

Dave Essler — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 01:53:53 GMT

Yep, and I am already waiting for the Elon-Tenn Chat line on Saturday. Elon won at TC earlier as a big dog--one of their only wins. Line might be seriously inflated in favor of Elon.

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

Anonymous — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 01:50:21 GMT

great call!

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

Dave Essler — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 00:48:24 GMT

Didn't touch this game--but did hop on Elon for something to do early. Elon shoot 22% FG and 2-11 from three and is still only down 23-16 at the half. I am REALLY glad it isn't even on ANY channel I have!!!!

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

guevones — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 21:57:21 GMT

i used to middle a lot and would hardly ever middle on +1, +1 except in occasionally in basketball. (but maybe I was just missing out on something). Problem I saw was, you cannot purely middle it because games can't end in a tie. also, if you can't purely middle a game, then you need to have 2 games out of every 22 land on a 1 just to break even. that can happen in basketball with all the close games between evenly matched teams but, it is far more preferable to have middles between 2.5 to 4.5 and the like than +1, +1, in my opinion.

However, if you're a Book that also goes out and buys up a number to strengthen your Book's position when folks are later gonna come in and take that same side at -1 where you have a bunch of it at +1 then that's a whole 'nother matter altogether.

VR --- you think that's what happens a lot when these games flop between +1 and +1? I mean, is it more books going out and buying the better number as opposed to the syndicates doing it? That was always my suspicion.

VR --- again, love the True Steam blog. It's what originally brought me to Pregame.

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

vegas-runner — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 20:43:37 GMT

Thanks Doc, I appreciate that my friend...VR

Roll...it happens more than bettors can imagine and there was this one new bookmaker at a Down Town Sports Book who I will keep nameless...And for a while, he would forget to adjust the ML when a Side got "Steamed"...and not to alert anyone, we were instructed to bet less than $500 on them, but to do it a couple of times throughout the day, even if we had to give some a quick $20 to go to the window and place the bet...

That error cost this particular book 10's of thousands of dollars before they ever picked up on it...And that manager obviously lost his job, but it goes to show that these guys are human and do make mistakes...

The exact same thing happend when we attacked the "Parlay Cards" and rocked so many books for a long time...And it took them forever to figure out what was happening, which is why when you go into a Vegas Book...although they still have 5-6 different cards out, they don't have 10-15 like they did back in the late 90's...

I called a friend of mine who is the best "Line-Tracker" in the business, which is also why he is the best scalper/middler on the planet...And he just told me that CRIS put up -4.5 at 5:51:51..and by 5:52:25...they had adjusted it to -1, where it should have gone out...So that error was caught in 34 seconds...But before the internet, that may have taken 15 min to see, and in that time, they would have gotten "steamed" from every Wiseguy out there...VR

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

harpco — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 20:35:45 GMT

MUCH OBLIGED SIR .

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

rollll_tide — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 20:35:00 GMT

Thanks for the feedback VR. What you explained makes sense but only if they get down on +1.5 or better on both sides. Weird how the books "accidentally" open a game at a number that is 2-3 points off the line they "want" but I'm sure it happens from time to time. Anyway, thanks for answering the questions. UNC Greensboro seems like a solid play. May tail this one small..

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

Docwatson — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 20:22:09 GMT

Even though my numbers say Chattanooga my Conference numbers say Greensboro +0.5 to -5 which was surprising at first glance knowing how much this team has struggled. Add that in to when I saw this game steamed from Pk to -2 I figured it was sharp money. Thanks for confirming, and best of fortune to you tonight.

Doc

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

vegas-runner — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 20:18:29 GMT

Thanks Fellas...Roll, I asked that same question when I was a runner and the only thing I can do is tell you exactly what I was told...Ideally, they like to be able to get a little more that just +1 on BOTH...And usually are able to get at least +1.5 on one of the sides, if not both...And it's worth doing not only because there are games that are won by 1pt...but it's also worth doing because they end up getting one of the teams that should be a Fav, as a Dog...And that becomes an automatic position for them...

As far as the LINE opening up 4.5...That was a mistake that has not been corrected because CRIS put it up at 4.5 accidently for 30sec, and didn't end up booking a single penny on it because they caught it immediately and in less than 60sec...took it right back down and put it up at -1...Which is where The Greek, Pinny, ect ended up opening the game...

We see them do this a lot with 1st halves and sometimes even the game...And if they didn't see if immediately and someone did get down...they would recieve an e-mail as soon as they saw their error, letting the bettor know that they have "voided" that bet...

It's happend to me a couple of times over the years, when I did more betting offshore...And I can't remember a single time that I got paid for it...Although I did get away with it here in Vegas, but offshore they could pull pretty much whatever they want, without any recourse by the bettor...

Hope that clears it up some...And thanks again fellas for all the support and kind words...VR

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

rollll_tide — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 19:46:16 GMT

oh and all my opening numbers show UNC-Greensboro opening at -4 or -4 1/2? Where did you get -1 from?

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

rollll_tide — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 19:43:44 GMT

Hey VR-

I love these blogs, I just have a question that nobody has been able to answer as of yet. So here goes...Why do sharps like to get both teams at +1? I don't understand the "middle opportunity" there when one team will lose the game. Unless it is +2 on both sides I don't see how that position can be profitable. Can you explain this please sir?

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

Mike Hook — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 19:34:32 GMT

nice work VR. The "true steam" blog is great info for EVERYONE. Keep up the great work as usual!