Vegas-Runner

VR's "Value Top 10" List + Money Meter...for MLB-CFB-NFL !!

vegas-runner — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 18:39:00 GMT

VEGAS-RUNNER’S “VALUE” TOP 10 LIST & MONEY METER…for MLB PLAYOFFS, CFB, & NFL !!

　

Once again the public bettors got the best of the bookmakers even with a perfect balance of dogs and favorites covering in week 4 of the NFL. The reason is simple, when teams like the Patriots, Packers, Saints, Lions, Ravens, and even the NY Giants get the cover you can rest assured there were a ton of 4,5, & 6 team parlays and teasers paid out. With odds of 20-1 and higher, it makes it almost impossible for books to make it up from bettors laying 11 to win 10.

In CFB teams like Alabama, Stanford, & Wisconsin continued to cost the books and a closer look at the results thus far reflect that wagering on teams in the AP top 5 blindly allows bettors to turn a profit. Then when you couple that with teams like Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Michigan who receive money each week…it’s obvious why books are complaining that odds makers aren’t doing an efficient job of protecting them.

Finally, the MLB Playoffs have brought with them a huge influx of recreational bettors to the market and odds makers are once again sending out “fair lines” rather than “true lines”. When the overall goal is to balance action and steer the public on the opposite side of the sharps, there is definitely a lot of value to take advantage of.

These observations are nothing new and each season it seems like the same type of findings are repeated over and over. Ultimately books depend on bettors NOT to practice proper money management so that even when they are able to outperform a coin-toss in the land where they’re forced to lay 11 to win 10, profit is avoided. Therefore, I for one believe that more information needs to be provided on treating it like an investment or a business. Because if you “treat it like a business, eventually it will pay like one”.

With that, let’s look ahead and try to isolate those teams that the market is over-under valuing at the moment based on perception rather than true data.

　

TOP 5 “OVER-VALUED” TEAMS :

1.) MILWAUKEE BREWERS

The price to back them coming down the stretch was inflated but they were able to out-perform the market and bettors continued riding them. Now that the playoffs have started NOTHING has changed and books will definitely be quick to inflate the price for backing them. No better example than Game 3 which was “do or die” for Arizona, but even at home they were offered up as the dog. That inflated price should continue onto the next series even against Philly.

　

2.) CLEMSON

For years this team has found a way to under-perform even when loaded with talent. This season they’re employing a spread-offense and it’s helped them put up a lot of points and cover the spread. More importantly, they’re getting a ton of public money each week regardless of the opponent and the AP has them ranked #8 in the polls. Most sharps I spoke to don’t even have them in their Top 15 yet and expect to cash in by fading them going forward.

　

3.) LSU

Currently ranked #1 in the AP and getting public money each and every week since that opening win against Oregon. They may be 5-0 SU but ATS they’re only 3-2. Now that may be enough to turn a profit but the inflated price attached will make it tough for that to continue in the tough SEC. Most of the sharps that share their power-ratings with me have them ranked behind Oklahoma, Alabama, Wisconsin, and some even behind Stanford.

　

4.) BALTIMORE RAVENS

After destroying the Steelers in week 1 it was obvious the public perception would be high on this team. But now after disposing of the NY Jets on prime-time SNF, their stock has really soared. The defense is as solid as any but they lack the type of offense needed to cover inflated numbers. Flacco is completing less than 50% of his passes and that’ll have to improve for them to live up to the hype.

　

5.) DETROT LIONS

It’s tough to say a team that’s won 12 straight games including the pre-season and has covered all but one in the process is “over-valued” or “over-rated”, especially after having the best ATS record last season. But the goal of this list is to look AHEAD more than behind and determine which team’s stock is too high or low. Ultimately when a team performs as well as the Lions, the over-reaction in the marketplace puts the price too high to offer any value. Don’t forget that in 2010 they were covering spreads as an “under-valued” team, but this year it’s the opposite and the market always corrects itself.

HONORABLE MENTION :

CFB = BOISE ST

NFL = PACKERS

　

　

TOP “5” UNDER-VALUED TEAMS :

1.) TEXAS RANGERS

For selfish reasons since I hold a futures ticket that pays out almost 100 units if they win the World Series, I’m hoping Texas gets it done. But the bottom line is that even if they don’t the market will offer up more than enough value to turn a nice profit. The reason is because they’ve received the least amount of hype coming into the Playoffs even after being in the WS just a season ago. When you have a very good team that isn’t getting much support at the betting window, you have exactly what’s needed to find value and turn a profit. If they meet the NYY next, they’ll be even more under-valued.

　

2.) TEXAS A&M

　

3.) FLORIDA ST.

Let’s not forget that prior to losing to Oklahoma this team was ranked in the top 5 of the AP poll, but after that loss was followed up by another against Clemson…they have dropped to #30. That is just too much based on the talent the Seminoles put out on the field each week and they are too well coached. Based on my own power-ratings I would only make a team like LSU around -6 on a neutral field and some sources I use say their’s reflect an even shorter price.

　

4.) NY JETS

They came into the season as one of the most over-valued teams in the NFL and received a ton of money in futures. But after a loss to the Raiders and being blown out on SNF by the Ravens, their stock has really plummeted. They are only one game out of 1^st place in the AFC East and have NOT played a division game yet so don’t look for them to quit on the season just yet. Now that they’ll be discounted, they’ll finally offer betting value.

　

5.) FALCONS

Another team that came into the season with expectations being too high based on their talent and it was obvious they’d be over-valued early on. But starting out 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS and almost losing to the Seahawks, has most bettors jumping ship. A closer look reveals they’ve played only 1 home game this season and in the dome they went 20-4 SU the L/3 seasons. When their stock is low and they’re playing at home they’ll definitely offer value.

HONORABLE MENTION :

CFB = NOTRE DAME/SOUTH CAROLINA

NFL = BEARS

　

　

MONEY-METER :

MLB PLAYOFFS = 75% PUBLIC / 25% SHARP

If not for the public using Totals mostly for parlays only, this ratio would be even higher. Prime-time games in any sport bring out recreational bettors but couple that with “playoffs” and market gets saturated with them.

CFB = 65% PUBLIC / 35% SHARP

Like usual this ration climbs in favor of the public on prime-time games and drops greatly on totals and smaller conference match-ups.

NFL = 80% PUBLIC / 20% SHARP

After locals reported that Sunday provided the most volume and money wagered they’ve received all season, it’s obvious that the exercise of betting on NFL games is growing. More fantasy football fans continue to cross over to wager and sharps are no longer able to limit exposure as much as before.
…Packers & Lions get all the attention in the division which means Chi-Town will be discounted greatly in those games that are the most meaningful to teams.…This one’s a tie because the loss last week had pollsters drop SC way too low and the QB change will keep bettors away until they see how he performs…And ND is still in my Top 15 (power-ratings) but the AP dropped them to #30.Last week we isolated Arkansas who had dropped down too far in the polls after a loss but weren’t adjusted much in most sharp’s power-ratings. This week, the Aggies barely made the AP top 25 (#24) after suffering their 2^nd loss of the season. Those same sharps that didn’t adjust much on Arkansas have done the same with A & M by keeping them in their top 15. When perception changes that drastically after a single game, a quality team will continue offering up value…especially at a discounted price.…Super Bowl champs almost always carry a premium the following season, but when it’s a team that cashes tickets early on and has a huge fan base eventually odds makers inflate price even more.…Coach Peterson just refuses to play the BCS’s game and pulls the starters after building a big lead which always leave the back door open.

body

　

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vegas-runner — Sat, 01 Oct 2011 19:07:20 GMT

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vegas-runner — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 18:19:28 GMT

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Vegas-Runner Value Top 10 List + Money Meter...for MLB-CFB-NFL Betting Markets !!

vegas-runner — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 17:16:42 GMT

VEGAS-RUNNER’S “VALUE TOP 10” LIST + MONEY-METER….for MLB, CFB, & NFL !!

　

We’ve seen just how difficult it is to make money when wagering on over-valued teams in MLB especially when those teams have a ton of pressure on them. In fact, most of the books I use as sources claim the last 2 weeks have been extremely profitable even though volume is low.

The reason is simple, recreational bettors chase with “must win” teams and pay an inflated price to do so. Over the final few days we can expect those “must win” teams to be over-inflated and offer up no true value.

In CFB and NFL the odds makers have tried to cash in on “perception” built over the first few games that they feel will be unsustainable. Remember, it’s not only the teams that looked good that I’m referring to. Instead, it’s also the teams that have also looked horrific.

Teams like the Chiefs and Colts proved that the point-spread is always the great equalizer in the betting market, while teams like Boise St. showed us there’s some numbers that even exceptional teams can’t cover.

Now that teams have played a couple of games it’s time to use data to help uncover where the true value lies and not simply base it on expectations. We can also use the perception surrounding certain teams to really take advantage of situations where the price reflects a “fair line” rather than a “true line”.

With that, let’s look at the teams the betting market has valued incorrectly and those that are being offered at a discount or an inflated price…

　

TOP “5” OVER-VALUED TEAMS :

1.) RAYS, RED SOX, BRAVES, & CARDINALS

All 4 are in “must win” situations each and every game if they want to extend their seasons and get into the Playoffs. Therefore, odds makers will look to protect the books by sending them out inflated and with so much added pressure they offer even less value. Below those 4 are the Rangers and Tigers who are trying to close the 2^nd spot in the AL but they won’t be nearly as inflated as the ones mentioned.

　

2.) DETROIT LIONS

Odds makers sent them out inflated last week at -3.5 and sharps immediately bet against them. But with public money outweighing wise guy money in the NFL, books were left extremely exposed on Detroit by kick-off. Bottom line, plenty of bettors that backed them and shopped for the best price ended up with a push and odds makers know they’ll be looking to bet them again.

　

3.) BUFFALO BILLS

Yes, for the first time since Jim Kelly was handing the ball off to Thurman Thomas the Bills have become an over-valued team. After beating the Patriots their stock is as high as it’s ever been. That’s reflected in the fact they are a 3 pt road fav in week 4 after Cantor Gaming had them listed as a 4.5 pt dog in this game prior to the season.

　

4.) GREEN BAY PACKERS

It’s never a good thing for the books when the Super Bowl Champs are covering numbers because they’ll almost always attract a lot of backing at the betting windows from the public. The offense has produced the 3^rd most points in the NFC so far and bettors love offense so look for odds makers to try and protect the books by continuing to inflate the price on the Packers.

　

5.) NEBRASKA

The Cornhuskers are ranked in the Top 10 of the USA Today & AP Polls but most sharps I spoke with don’t even have them in their top 15. Because of their ranking in the polls they’ve been sent out with a premium attached and have responded by going 1-3 ATS even though they’re 4-0 SU. As the schedule gets tougher look for them to be exposed and eventually drop in the polls to reflect what sharps already know.

　

　

TOP “5” UNDER-VALUED TEAMS :

　

1.) DODGERS, NATIONALS, INDIANS, & BLUE JAYS

None of these teams will be playing in the post-season and most have known that for a long while. But now that the season is coming to a close these teams actually DO have something to play for. What they are playing for now may not seem important to fans and bettors but it’s important to these teams…and that’s to end the season ABOVE .500 overall. With all 4 hovering around that win percentage, look for them to play hard to finish the season as a winning team and have something to build on for next year

　

2.) ST LOUIS RAMS

They came into the season considered the sexy pick to win a weak NFC West division but showed early on they‘re still too young to make such a big stride. Now that they’re 0-3 SU and dealing with some key injures they are no longer in that conversation and bettors will be looking to fade them. With an 0-3 ATS record look for odds makers to send them out at a huge discount, making them the value side.

　

3.) MIAMI DOLPHINS

Being in such a tough division they weren’t expected to compete for the top spot. But they also weren’t expected to be this bad either. Losing to the Browns without Peyton Hillis sent their stock crashing and that’s usually when it’s time to buy. As the defense improves and the price is greatly discounted the Fins will provide some profitable spots ahead, especially at home where they are desperate for a win.

　

4.) SD CHARGERS

Yes, the Chargers are under-valued at the moment because of their 0-3 ATS mark and the fact they barely got past a bad Chiefs team. With the reputation of playing down to their competition and starting the season slow, odds makers will send them out discounted and that’s when a quality team can cash some tickets. If not for mistakes inside the red-zone at NE this team would be 3-0 SU and over-valued. But that loss, coupled with having trouble against the Viks and Chiefs make them a “play-on” team.

　

5.) ARKANSAS

With teams like Alabama, LSU, and even Florida the Razorbacks will continue to be an afterthought in the SEC. And after a loss on national TV to Bama where the final score reflected a blow-out, the pollsters dropped them down to the #18 spot. Most sharps I spoke to still have them Top 10 in “power-ratings” and that says the public perception is wrong. Teams will almost always offer value when that’s the case and this team should be no different.

　

MONEY-METER :

MLB BETTING MARKET = 70% SHARP / 30% PUBLIC

This is the reason we’re not seeing as many line-moves as usual since odds makers are sending out a lot of “true lines”. More importantly, the majority of public money is in parlays since prices are so high and not many are willing to lay -200 or higher on straight bets. Until the playoffs, this market will stay saturated with sharp money.

CFB BETTING MARKET = 65% PUBLIC / 35% SHARP

On prime-time games this ratio is even higher as public money outweighs sharp money in those match-ups. But with so many smaller conferences and totals being offered each week, the betting syndicates and professional bettors look to take advantage of some weak numbers. Majority of 1^st & 2^nd half money also comes from sharps who many times are simply working middles.

NFL BETTING MARKET = 75% PUBLIC / 25% SHARP

This ratio is why there are more “fair lines” in NFL than any other sport. Odds makers are well aware that sharp money won’t nearly be enough to offset public money when a position is one-sided, so they look to capitalize on bettors biases by inflating sides and totals to give books the best of it when that’s the case. Even with plenty of betting syndicates trying to take advantage of opportunities available with certain parlays and teasers, the exotics market’s ratio of public money wagered is even higher.

Thanks again for all your support and best of luck ahead, Vegas-Runner.

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vegas-runner — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 22:01:22 GMT

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vegas-runner — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 21:37:13 GMT

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VR's VALUE TOP 10 LIST & MONEY METER...for MLB-CFB-NFL !!

vegas-runner — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 19:37:13 GMT

VEGAS RUNNER’S VALUE TOP 10 LIST + MONEY METER…for MLB, CFB, & NFL BETTING MARKETS !!

　

Betting volume continues to increase at the sports books as recreational bettors continue to hold their own against the odds makers in CFB and the NFL. The marquee schools have gotten the money and the prime-time games have gone the public’s way as well. Even with a good mixture of favs and dogs in both CFB and NFL, the most one-sided bet games this past weekend, except for the Ravens and Eagles have gone to the players.

Also, even with an obvious adjustment made on NFL Totals in Week 2 the OVER continues to cash. After 12 of 16 games went OVER the opening number in Week 1, we had the same 12-16 go OVER in Week 2. More importantly, the OVER has cashed on ALL 5 “prime-time” games thus far and that means the books have had to pay out on a lot of parlays and teaser bets.

Finally, this is usually the time when odds makers have a good grasp of what the “public perception” is going into each week and they’ll look to capitalize on their bias. From experience I can tell you that this is the time that many of the biggest and most respected betting syndicates take some of their largest positions, feeling they’ve got an increased edge.

With the betting public’s money outweighing the sharp money being wagered in NFL and most of CFB’s marquee match-ups, the odds makers are willing to send out a “fair line” rather than a “true line”. It’s in those spots where the edge increases most and books are more than willing to give it up in exchange for some balance on money bet. Once again we’re seeing some major adjustments being made on the Sides & Totals for many of this upcoming week’s games.

Below is my list of the 10 most “over & under” valued teams in the betting market based on those adjustments and the public’s perception, along with a break-down of what “type” of money is being bet. Keep in mind that I attempt to categorize EVERY team possible and these are the one’s at the very top…

　

TOP 5 “OVER-VALUED” TEAMS :

1.) RED SOX, RAYS, BRAVES, & CARDINALS

No need for an “under-valued” list in MLB since they’ll obviously be those teams facing any of the above. The reason is that even though sharps may come in and grab the value, odds makers know the books will receive public money on the “must win” team. These teams will be inflated most on days with no football on the board since that’s when betting volume from recreational bettors increases in MLB. With wise guys money outweighing public money in MLB at this time, these “must win” teams won’t be as inflated when football is being played that day. Cross sport parlays are welcomed and won’t force books to adjust prices.

　

2.) DETROIT LIONS

Received a ton of public money in Week 1 & 2 and covered the number both times with ease. Lions were the “sexy” pick in the NFC coming into the season and after performing well in preseason, continued picking up supporters. Odds makers know the books will be exposed on the Detroit side in most match-ups going forward and they’ll aim to inflate the price to compensate.

　

3.) FALCONS

After burning the bettors in Week 1, they did it again in Week 2...but this time it was because they got faded. With a win against the Eagles on a national stage, Week 1 backers will be on board again. I felt they were over-valued coming into the season and my work supported they’d regress from 2010. Regardless, a premium will definitely be added, making them a team that will have to overcome the extra points added in order to turn a profit.

　

4.) LSU

Yes they may have the best defense in all of CFB but after wise guys backed them in “Games of the Year” lines before season started, and public has embraced them as well…odds makers won’t be offering them up at a fair price. They’ll have to OVER-perform going forward to cover the inflated price that they demand.

　

5.) NEBRASKA

They made the list last week and they’re on it again after falling to 0-3 ATS. That spread record reflects the fact that they’re extremely over-valued and I believe over-rated. Personally, they are not in my Top 10 but that’s because I base it on “power-ratings” and not perception. Only Indiana & Iowa have allowed more points in the Big 10 but bettors will keep backing them since the AP/USA Today have them ranked so high.

　

　

TOP 5 “UNDER-VALUED” TEAMS :

　

1.) BENGALS

The fact they’re 2-0 ATS supports they’re under-valued in the betting market and that will continue because coming into the season, no team received as much money AGAINST them on season win totals. With the talent on defense they’ll be able to stay in games and as they get more confident on offense and begin using those skill position threats more…they’ll not only cover games, but they’ll start winning them as well.

　

2.) BILLS

The least respected 2-0 SU team in the NFL means they’ll continue to be offered at a huge discount by bookmakers. They’ve scored more points than the Pats, Jets, and Fins while allowing less than all expect the Jets in their division. In fact, NO team in the NFL has put up more points offensively and that ability will continue to keep the back door open against the spread and give them the chance to win some games.

　

3.) BEARS

Most agreed a major regression was coming in 2011 and though they won’t win the division again, they have the type of defense that’ll keep them in games. With the Lions and Packers receiving all of the attention in the NFC North, odds makers will continue sending them out at a discount and making them the value side in most match-ups.

　

4.) USC

After almost a decade of being “over-valued” the Trojans came into 2011 without much hype or support due to NCAA violations issues. They’re currently 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS but not getting any respect from pollsters. Historically, a solid team with a strong foundation and competent coach are the exact characteristics of teams that’ll cash tickets when under-valued by bettors.

　

5.) ALABAMA

Yes I said it…Bama is under-valued and under-rated because the #1 team in all of CFB is currently ranked 2^nd & 3^rd in the polls. Even the “Yahoo Users Poll” has them #3 and it’s a more accurate reflection of the betting market than the major polls. Bottom line, most bettors believe they are NOT the best team in the country, but almost ALL sharps I spoke to prior to creating the list have them #1. It‘s rare to see this type of power-house not getting the respect they deserve from bettors, but that’s the case so ROLL-TIDE-ROLL.

　

MONEY-METER :

MLB BETTING MARKET = 75% SHARP / 25% PUBLIC

Recreational bettors are using the MLB board to tie up parlays when there’s no football on and using the big favs for cross sport parlays when there is. Odds makers know to send out lines aimed at sharp bettors which is why we’re seeing fewer “true positions” taken by wise guys.

CFB BETTING MARKET = 65% PUBLIC / 35% SHARP

The ratio is much greater on marquee/prime-time match-ups but with so many sides and totals available, there are games where sharp money definitely outweighs public money.

NFL BETTING MARKET = 75% PUBLIC / 25% SHARP

Money wagered early in the week is mostly sharp but come game-day, the public accounts for 90% and more of the action being booked. If not for prop bets, 1^st & 2^nd halves, etc the ratio overall would be even greater for public money.

Thanks again for all your support and best of luck ahead, Vegas-Runner.

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