VEGAS-RUNNER’S “VALUE TOP 10” LIST + MONEY METER…for MLB and NFLX BETTING MARKETS !!
The NFL preseason is heading into it’s 3rd week of action and historically this has been the week that coaches play their starters more. That should definitely be the case again this season especially with the lock-out resulting in some teams being less prepared than usual for the upcoming regular season.
So far, the books have not done well as the most lop-sided bet games have gone the players way. Teams like the Patriots and Jets covering this past week cost them dearly since both attracted a lot of one-way betting action. We also saw 5 of 6 favorites cover the number on Friday and it’s tough for books to turn a profit even with a built-in edge, when they’re forced to pay out on 3-4-5 team parlays.
In MLB the sharp money continues to outweigh recreational money even with the influx brought on by the NFL. Most recreational bettors are simply tying up parlays with marquee teams and big favorites. Odds makers are well aware of this and they’ve countered with plenty of inflated prices. Those inflated prices are still seen on nights where there isn’t any football on the board because those bettors are seeking action now that they’ve joined the party.
It’s obvious after taking a look at this NFLX lines that the odds makers have made some adjustments in an attempt to protect the books when they get one-sided. That has resulted in some under-valued teams being offered at an even bigger discount and some over-valued teams being sent out even more inflated. Now let’s take a look at some of those teams…
TOP 5 “OVER-VALUED” TEAMS :
1.) CLEVELAND INDIANS
Since we’re going to focus primarily on the NFL, we’ll single out the MLB team that I think is the most compelling. The Tribe has resided on the “under-valued” side for most of the season and the fact they’ve showed a nice profit throughout supports they belonged there. But it’s time to cross over because it finally looks like reality is setting in. We saw with the Pirates that when post-season dreams get shattered for a team that was playing above their talent level, they usually regress quickly and permanently. Indians are now a .500 team who sits in 3rd place and with an offense, defense, and pitching staff that’s below average…I expect them to continue dropping and offer value to bettors willing to FADE them.
2.) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
They hurt books by going 67% ATS last season and are already 2-0 this preseason. More importantly they were the heaviest bet side in BOTH weeks and odds makers will need to inflate the price even more to help protect the books. Recreational bettors will still back them and books know this so they’ll try to entice wise guys to come in and help give them some balance by taking the “value” side. They’ve outscored their opponents by 52 POINTS so far and don’t look to be slowing down. But in all sports, the SPREAD can always become the great equalizer and that’s what books are banking on with this team.
3.) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Not only did they win and cover against “America’s Team”, but they did so in a prime-time game on NBC. Odds makers are well aware they’ll be receiving a ton of public money ahead and they’ll look to inflate the price so bettors at least get the worst of it for backing them. Remember, this is a team whose pieces aren’t much different than last season. This means their main goal will be to stay healthy throughout the preseason and more or less get into game shape. When winning isn’t the main objective, it’s tough to lay points with a team on the road in the NFL…which is exactly what books are asking bettors to do in week 3 if they want to back the Chargers.
4.) HOUSTON TEXANS
They just beat the Saints convincingly…need I say more. But if that wasn’t enough, they also took care of the Jets in week 1. In my opinion that value train has now left the station and if you missed out on cashing by backing them, it may be too late. They are now a ROAD FAVORITE in week 3 and that represents an inflated price. I won’t be surprised to see this line continue climbing and then get steamed the other way by sharps who come in late on the home dog. That should really help the books out by providing some balance and limiting their exposure on a team that will attract a lot of public money.
5.) PHILADELPHIS EAGLES
They may have lost to their in-state rivals on national television, but recreational bettors won’t be discouraged from coming right back with the Birds. This is a week that starters are expected to play longer and these starters are being labeled as a “dream team”. Eagles didn’t make money for their backers last season when they went 7-9 ATS in the regular season. With even bigger inflated lines expected throughout the season ahead, it will be difficult for them to do much better even with an improved SU record. They will have to play well above expectations to produce profit and so far they haven’t done so in the preseason.
TOP 5 “UNDER-VALUED” TEAMS :
1.) DETROIT TIGERS
Another MLB team that’s crossing over from one list to the other…The difference is that the Tigers are now an under-valued team after spending some time being over-valued throughout the season. It’s simple, they are the most talented team in the AL Central and now that they’ve taken the #1 spot they have the talent to run away with it and create more space. They are the ONLY team in the division with a positive run-differential and they sport a winning record on the road. With 9 of their next 16 games being away from home, they should offer up some value.
2.) CINCINNATI BENGALS
No team has looked worse in the preseason and after the way wise guys steamed the UNDER on their season win total, we really shouldn’t be surprised. But once again the SPREAD is almost always the great equalizer when betting sports. For example, the Lions went 6-10 SU last season but won more money for their supporters than ALL the other teams in the NFL. It’s obvious that recreational bettors will look to FADE the Bengals every chance they get. So odds makers will have no choice but to offer them up at a huge discount. The type of discount that may be big enough to help them cash some tickets.
3.) KANSAS CITY CHEIFS
They won the AFC West last season and turned a profit for their backers but so far in the preseason they’ve manage to score only 13 pts in 2 games. That may be enough to win a game if you’re the ‘85 Bears, but when your defense has allowed 56 pts, you find yourself on the wrong end of blow-outs. The bottom line is that more times than not, NO team is as bad or as good as they look in any given week. But the perception surrounding extreme performances usually results in value. In this case, that perception will force odds makers to offer them up at a HUGE discount…with the goal of making them the “value” side.
4.) OAKLAND RAIDERS
Let’s stay in the AFC West where we have another team that’s provided the kind of perception that odds makers will try to protect the books from. They’ve allowed 21 more points than they’ve scored over their 2 preseason games and they have a “prime-time” MNF match-up against the Saints on deck. Even with a loss in their last game the Saints have made my “over-valued” list this preseason, just not the top 5. With the kind of betting action that SNF/MNF games attract, books will want to either have balance so they aren’t exposed…or at least be getting the best of it if they are. The only way to do either is by giving the Raiders MORE points than they should be receiving.
5.) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
They surprised fans and bettors alike last season by winning the NFC West and going on to beat the Saints in the Wild-Card round of the playoffs as 9 ½ point dogs. But rather than consider them a talented team, most labeled them a lucky team so it’s not surprising bettors faded them so far in the preseason. They did so against the Vikings last week and cashed but the result (7-20 Final) is very misleading. The Seahawks had more : 1st Downs, Rushing Yards, Passing Yards, and even won the TOP battle, but couldn’t turn all of that into points. Usually, this results in a team offering up value ahead and I believe that is definitely the case with Seattle.
MONEY METER :
MLB = 65% SHARP and 35% PUBLIC
Most of the recreational bettors are using parlays to bet into this market while professional bettors and syndicates are forcing significant adjustments and getting a ton of respect.
NFLX = 70% PUBLIC and 30% SHARP
More recreational bettors continue to join the party as the regular season approaches and they outweigh wiseguy money which means they're influencing the market.
Thanks again for all your support and best of luck ahead, Vegas-Runner.
Thankls VR ,
Think of the home field advantage that Seattle has also. Even when they are bad, its hard for teams to travel to Seattle and win ATS or SU for that matter.
They dont play at home until week 3 vs. AZ after playing at PITT week 2 and SF week 1. They will be faded by many those first 2 weeks. Then they will be a huge home dog vs. the hyped Kolb and the Cards. Should be a fun season.