“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER for TUESDAY AUGUST 9th, 2011
VEGAS-RUNNER’S “VALUE” TOP 10 LIST for NFL & MLB BETTING MARKETS
The NFL Preseason finally kicks off this week and books have already seen an increase in betting volume. Though many recreational bettors save their bankrolls for the start of the regular season, the eagerness to have action on a football game has most getting down on these exhibition games.
Since public money outweighs wise guy money in many football match-ups, odds makers have no reservation about shading the lines to factor in the biases of those public bettors. On the flip side, odds makers also are aware there will be games that sharp money leaves them exposed, especially throughout the preseason where recreational bettors aren’t as active.
Finally, the MLB betting market will begin receiving even less public money until the post-season gets here. To compensate for this, odds makers will look to send out more “true lines” when compared to “fair lines” on most match-ups. With that said, those marquee teams that receive plenty of parlay money and many prime-time games will still reflect a price aimed at creating balance or giving the betting public the worst of it.
We’ll start adding some CFB teams to the list in the coming weeks, but for now the focus is on the NFL and MLB…
TOP 5 “OVER-VALUED” TEAMS :
1.) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
They’ve been getting most of the attention since the lock-out ended due to their attempt at putting together a “dream team”…Their season win total has been adjusted and the odds of winning the Super Bowl have dropped from a high of 20-1 to 6-1...Even though it’s only preseason, books expect to see plenty of action on the Birds and that should continue throughout the regular season which means inflated lines.
2.) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Pats receive action from the betting public almost every week…Now that they’ve made some roster improving moves and are one of the favs to win it all, odds makers know the books will be even more exposed when the Pats play…Last year they went 67% ATS and 13-3 Over…Expect the point spread and total to be shaded more this season in an attempt to stop that same thing from happening in the 2011 season.
3.) ST LOUIS CARDINALS
Even though the Brewers have taken a 3 game lead in the standings, bettors have more confidence in backing the Cards…This is reflected in their results against the money-line so far this season where a $100 bettor is down backing St Louis, while that same bettor is up over a dime backing Milwaukee…As long as they continue to battle for the division, odds makers will continue to charge a premium for backing them.
4.) CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Now a game out of 2nd place in the AL Central and still in contention for a post-season berth at 5 games out…Even so, they have a negative run differential and are 2 games below .500 overall this season…They’ve won only 40% of home games but odds makers continue to send them out as big favs since they get plenty of support at the betting window.
5.) ATLANTA FALCONS
They were 69% ATS last season and have been installed as the favorite to come out of the NFC South again in 2011...Being a team that cashes a lot of Over tickets, the betting public gives them plenty of love each week…Expect odds makers to be much better prepared for that betting action this season by inflating the price in both, the preseason and regular season…at least early on.
TOP 5 “UNDER-VALUED” TEAMS :
1.) DENVER BRONCOS
Few teams have received as much criticism as the Broncos since the lock-out ended…The perception is that Tim Tebow is not a pro-level QB and even with Orton, not many recreational bettors will be racing to the window to get down on Denver…After going 37% ATS in 2010 and all the negative talk surround this team going into 2011, I expect odds makers to offer them up at a huge discount.
2.) CINCINNATI BENGALS
No team has seen their season win total get so much action…The only problem is that the action reflects a terrible season is expected…Only the Panthers lost more games than they did in 2010, but they had the same ATS mark as the Eagles, Cowboys, and Saints…Since bettors will look to fade them this season, odds makers will look to attract balance by sending them out cheap in an attempt to entice sharp money.
3.) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
ONLY the Phillies have made their backers more money this season in all of MLB than the Dbacks…But unlike Philly, this team gets very little action from bettors…They continue to trade the top spot with the Giants in the NL West and as long as they remain motivated and get no respect, I expect them to continue turning a profit…There’s no reason for odds makers to adjust the discounted price being offered, so they’ll continue offering up value.
4.) WASHINGTON REDSKINS
They may have finished in last place in the NFC East in 2010, but they made more money for supporters than all 3 teams that finished above them…Not much is expected to change as far as their SU record according to their season win total…But they may do even better ATS since bettors expect them to be on the decline…Once again, the books will want to limit exposure on their games and the only way to do this is by making them the value side.
5.) CLEVELAND INDIANS
Unlike the Pirates, the Tribe don’t seem to want to regress to the mean and live “down” to expectations…As amazing of a season as this has been for them, few recreational bettors have cashed in…Only the Yanks and Red Sox have made their backers more money so far, but there is very little confidence that they are for real…Instead, bettors continue waiting for them to implode and drop out of the race…which means the discount in price isn’t going anywhere just yet.
MONEY METER : 45% PUBLIC & 55% SHARP
Books expect a lot more balance in the action they take this week since the NFL Preseason kicks off...Even though wiseguy money won't be outweighed just yet, there is still enough recreational bettors that get involved in the preseason...That same balance won't be the case in MLB, where sharp money will begin to overwhelm the books except in match-ups that include marquee teams and on prime-time games...We should continue to see the "public" side of the money meter increase as we approach the start of the regular seasons in NFL and CFB.
Thanks again for all your support and best of luck ahead, Vegas-Runner.
Pat Dog...I agree, there are some teams (example = Phillies) that oddsmakers aren't able to stop from making bettors money with...And over the years, the Patriots have been one of those teams...
With that said, as far as value goes..they'll almost always be inflated...Remember, I'm not urging bettors to fade them every time...But I do think that oddsmakers try to make it so that the value is on the other side...
Unfortunately for them, and fortunately for bettors..they haven't done a good job of late with New England...best of luck, thanks for the info...VR
Food for thought Patdog but I'm from Mass long with two sharper friends of mine and the Pats turned our pockets inside-out until we eventually stopped fading them save the playoff game vs. Jets when we unloaded and recouped some of our losses. I don't think you can successfully prosecute the case that they were not over-valued LY. Hindsight is 20-20 and they absolutely exceeded expectations but it is my opinion that no one is going to get rich drawing dollar signs with heavy chalk in the NFL.
Already got down big on denver at pk for their monday night game vs oakland at home after line went from -1.5 down to pk, they should be getting at least a td in that game no matter who starts. Line went back to -1 at two books after they announced orton was the starter and he was off the trade block, I bet them that day. Eagles will be a great fade this year especially with a young kicker in the mix where that 3 points will be critical at times.
I don't know, Ace... I feel like the same reservations that apply to the Astros, apply in reverse to the Pats. They, at certain times, just seem to be in a league of their own and operating on such a high level, that the typical spots and situational stuff that you can apply to the rest of the teams, they just don't apply to the pats. For instance, I remember a number of times where you had big plays against them last year (I'm not coming down on you or anything, don't take it personally, just food for thought), and it truly seemed like the public/square side was on them, and the sharp side was against them, and all of those times, they came out and BLEW OUT the competition. I remember a few instances specifically;
1. @ CHI: Coming off a big prime-time win, the Pats went out to Chicago to play a Bears team that was on a nice run of their own. The Pats had just won against another public team on national tv in blowout fashion, and now was traveling to an NFC team to play in snowy conditions. All signs pointed to the Pats being a square play and the Bears being a sharp play, catching 3 at home.
The result: The Pats had something like a 33-0 lead at half time and cruised to a victory in one of their many laughers.
2. @PIT: Another prime time national tv game where the Pats came in on a roll of blowing big-time teams out in high-profile games (beat ravens, chargers and vikings before losing on the road to the browns). The Steelers meanwhile had been trending upwards for weeks, winning games in typical, ugly, quiet, Steeler fashion.
The result: again the Pats jumped out to something like a 30-0 lead before running out the clock and winning 39-26
3. @MIA: The game that turned the Pats season around. This was before the Pats hit their stride and they looked like they'd be hamstrung by their D all year long. Again, the "sharp side" (as well as yours), was MIA.
The result: Pats win 41-14 in an old fashioned Pats win, scoring in every way imaginable.
4/5 Finally, in the last two weeks, when the Pats had locked up the 1 seed and had very little to play for, many prognosticators had recommended taking the big points in these divisional games as it was unclear what motivation the pats had and how often starters would play.
The result: Proves yet again why the pats are different, Brady played for most of both games, coming in and out of the game in different situations, Pats over 'Phins 38-7, and over the Bills 34-3.
Like I said, I'm not trying to call you out on losers here VR. Not by any stretch. What I'm trying to point out that while I agree that NFL teams fit into types and games fit into "spots" or :"situations," the Pats seem to be their own animal and the things that you'd apply to teams across the board, you almost can't apply to the Pats, and I've got some reasons why that's true, aside from just listing the results above.
1. Continuity between coaching staff and QB: I think this is the single most important and at the same time, underrated, aspect that you can look at when rating or ranking a team's quality. Here's why I think that is so important. The longer a QB and a HC or OC are together, the more familiar the QB is with the system, and the more wrinkles they can add. The QB becomes so familiar with the system that it becomes like second nature. Without having to consciously think, he knows what all his receivers are doing, where they are on every play, against every possible defense. They can add wrinkles off of previously used plays and formations that other teams have tape on. It is a HUGE advantage to have such continuity between QB and his system and is the biggest factor in explaining why the Pats offense is so successful.
2. This leads to the second reason. The Pats blow teams out more than any other team. 41-14 over MIA, 39-26 over PIT, 45-24 over DET (another game you were against NE), 45-3 over NYJ, 36-7 over CHI, 34-3 over BUF, and 38-7 over MIA. That is a STUNNING amount of blowout wins. A lot of those points can be attributed to the complete mastery of this offense that Brady has, and how much eaasier it is for the D to play with a lead like that.
3. Belichcik's willingness to play "60 minutes." The pats look at games in exactly that way: they are there to execute and get better for 60 minutes of football. Most teams are so concerned about image and reputation and needing to find another job some day that they wont "run up the score." The pats do it frequently.
This got more long-winded than I thought and I don't think I described the effect of Brady's familiarty with the system as well as I have in the past, but I just think that there are so many factors that make the Pats a different animal than the rest of the teams, you can't just cap them the same.
Thanks Game...The thing with the Stros is that even most sharps are afraid to take the discounted price and back them...lol.
I look forward to putting this out each week throughout football and I'm going to try and do my "Line-Prediction" blog again this football season...I think it's so important to try and determine which way the line's going and if we can be correct more times than not, then we'll end up getting the best number on most bets...Thanks again, VR
I look forward to this every week VR. Keep up the good work. Thank you. Interesting that the Stro's weren't on here as supposedly Bookmakers can't give Hou tickets away. I haven't had the stones to back them but the youngsters seem motivated to play now that they re getting a chance.