"MORNING MOVES" NEWSLETTER for TUESDAY JULY 5th, 2011

Vegas-Runner's "VALUE TOP 10" List...Plus "MARKET METER"....for MLB Betting Market !!

Interleague action took center stage for the past few weeks and even though fans seem to enjoy it, their fondness doesn't carry over to the betting window. In fact, betting volume was low when compared to the regular schedule where teams play within their division.
As far as the betting market is concerned, "perception" is tougher to guage on match-ups that don't include marquee teams. But now that things get back to normal and MLB has a monopoly on the betting market until football gets here, let's determine which teams are over and under valued as we approach the All-Star break.
Before we do I wanted to state that historically, recreational bettors tend to excuse the results from Interleague play. Therefore, we have to make sure we take that into consideration when labeling these teams. Meaning, the stock price won't reflect the results from the past 2 weeks expect in the most extreme cases.
Finally, I'm going to be adding a new factor to the list starting this week..."The Market Meter" will guage the percentage of public money in the market. For example, during football season a Monday Night Football match-up's action may be comprised of 90% public money when compared to wiseguy money. On the flip side, bets made on the total for a CFB game between Western Michigan and Eastern Michgan may be 90% in favor of wiseguys.
TOP "5" OVER-VALUED TEAMS in MLB :
1.) TEXAS RANGERS
They may be in 1st place in the AL West and show a positive run differential, but oddsmakers place the kind of premium on Texas that makes it difficult to turn a profit backing them...Even though they're only 20-23 on the Road, the betting market had them favored in their last 7 road games.
2.) CINCINNATI REDS
Currenly .500 on the season and only 3 games out of 1st place in the NL Central...but enough of a premium's being added by oddsmakers has a $100 bettor down over a nickel...They've scored the most runs in the NL to date and we know public bettors prefer offense so they'll continue to attract support at the window, meaning oddsmakers will continue to over price them.
3.) DETROIT TIGERS
Only 1.5 games out of 1st place in the AL Central and 4 games above .500 this season...but they haven't turned a profit for supporters overall...Tigers have a negative run differential and are 18-22 on the Road...They've won 59% of home games but oddsmakers continue to add a premium since they get public money almost every night.
4.) COLORADO ROCKIES
Only the Astros have cost their supporters more than the Rockies as a $100 bettor is already down over $1500 this season...Only a .500 team at home but oddsmakers sent them out as the favorite in 14 of their last 16 games there...Perception reflects a much stronger home field advantage than they actually have and as long as bettors continue to back them at Coors...oddsmakers will continue to over price them.
5.) LA DODGERS
Maybe it's because they're a big market team or maybe it's because they have a huge fan base...regardless the reason, they're 11 games out of 1st in the NL West but continue to attract public money at the betting window...With a -36 run differential and a losing record at home and on the road, they should only be looked at when offered as dogs.
TOP "5" UNDER-VALUED TEAMS in MLB :
1.) CLEVELAND INDIANS
They win 64% of Home games and are in 1st place in the AL Central but the perception seems to reflect a lack of confidence by bettors...The market has made them the dog at home against the NYY in back to back games, even though win percentage at home converts to a money-line of -178 there...As long as bettors continue to stay away, a quality team like this will continue to produce profit for backers since they're being offered at such a big discount by oddsmakers.
2.) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
They are the MOST profitable team in all of baseball on the money-line at only 3 games above .500...Now that they're only 1.5 games out of 1st place in the NL Central, I expect them to continue to play with motivation...Since bettors are conditioned to fade them yearly, the market will continue to under value them...Rather than backing them, the public instead is waiting for them to regress...With a positive run differential and a winning record on the Road, they may have to wait a long time.
3.) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Along with the Pirates, they'll continue to remain under-valued and offered at a discount because bettors have always looked to fade them rather than back them...Only the Phils have produced more profit in the NL East even though the Nats are 11 games behind...They're at .500 on the season and will continue to produce profit as long as they're able to hover there.
4.) NY METS
They're 10.5 games out of 1st in the NL East but they've got a winning record overall and on the road...Overlooked in a division that includes the Phils and Braves, oddsmakers continue to offer them up at a discount...A $100 bettor is up over a nickel but since they haven't produced a profit for backers since 2006, not many are in a rush to back them in 2011.
5.) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
They've been hot & cold throughout the season and currently sit only 2 games out of 1st place in the NL West...A $100 bettors is up almost a dime backing them and they have a winning record at Home and on the Road...They have a positive run differential and an offense that keeps them in games but don't get much support at the betting window from bettors.
MARKET METER : 70% WISEGUY MONEY / 30% PUBLIC MONEY
The 4th of July weekend just came to a close and it'll take a couple of days for people to recover and get back to their normal routines. Because of that, books expect volume to be low and the majority of recreational money to come in the form of parlays. Betting syndicates and professional bettors work year round and in the week ahead, I expect the majority of money wagered to come from them.