“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER for TUESDAY JUNE 28th, 2011
VEGAS-RUNNER’S “VALUE TOP 10” LIST !!
The summer months are usually slow for sports books as bettors have limited options to wager on and spend less time watching sports. Many recreational bettors wait for the football season to roll around and are prone to simply toss in some parlays on baseball on days they want action. With that said, there’s still an influx of unsophisticated bettors in the MLB marketplace when compared to months where other sports take center stage.
Therefore the odds makers look to shade the lines to reflect the perception of these recreational bettors, ultimately offering sharper bettors an increased edge. That’s a tradeoff they’ll take many times throughout the year for all sports, when the market is saturated with “public” money.
Knowing the “public” will take the worst of it and also help limit exposure on the sharp side allows the sports books to profit more than their built-in edge reflects. Even though we constantly hear that MLB is the most beatable sport for sharp bettors, books do just fine overall since few are able to practice proper money management.
Besides money management, bettors need to understand that this is a market like any other. The goal is to find value by determining which teams are being over or under valued and find positions where fading or backing them offers you the best of it.
Below is my Top 10 List comprised of teams that odds makers have attached a premium to and those that are being discounted. Since we are being treated to plenty of Boxing & MMA cards over the next few weeks, I will be adding fighters that qualify to the list.
“5” MOST OVER-VALUED TEAMS & FIGHTERS :
1.) DAVID HAYE
The most highly anticipated heavyweight title fight in a long time has captured the attention of fans and bettors…Like usual, HBO and others have hyped the fight in a way that makes it seem much more competitive than the participants suggest it should be…Haye’s advertised as the biggest threat to Wlad’s title even though he’s a cruiser weight who talked his way into this pay day and not earned his way in…Most recreational bettors back the dog in fights unlike other sports and odds makers know this which is why this price is lower than win probability reflects.
2.) TEXAS RANGERS
A team that will definitely be dangerous if they make it to the post-season but in the regular season odds makers have them over-priced…Since coming out of the gate looking unbeatable the perception gained has bettors backing them nightly…They’re only 3 games above .500 which is good enough for 1st place in the AL West…But that kind of win percentage is not good enough to yield a profit when a big premium is added.
3.) CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Only 5-5 over their L/10 games but FAVORED in 8 of them…The reason for that is bettors continue to back this team even though a $100 bettors is down over a nickel on the season…They have a negative run differential and are now 5 games out of 1st place in the AL Central…With a losing record at home bettors will continue to lose money since they’re almost always the listed favorites.
4.) BOSTON REDSOX
They’ve been favored in 9 of their L/10 games, many times as heavy chalk but have won just 5 of those games…Their season win percentage converts to a money line of -140 for break even but they attract the kind of betting action that forces odds makers to send them out much higher on average…That will continue making it difficult to make any money backing them regularly.
5.) COLORADO ROCKIES
They just continue to receive money from bettors especially when playing a home…Odds makers continue to charge a premium there and with a .500 record it’s no surprise a $100 bettor is down over $1,300 already…I expect them to hover around .500 all season meaning they should rarely be bet when favored.
“5” MOST UNDER-VALUED TEAMS & FIGHTERS
1.) WLADIMIR KLITSCKO
With 6 straight fights in Germany it’s no surprise many US fans don’t think too highly of the younger Klitschko…Most remember a less complete fighter than he’s become under the tutelage of Emanuel Steward…Being touted as having a “glass jaw” and going up against an opponent being touted as a “big puncher” it’s not surprising books are expecting money on the dog in this fight…Based on the win probability, Wlad is being offered up at a big discount.
2.) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
They continue to remain on the list and as long as they hover around .500 they’ll remain extremely profitable…Only 1 game above .500 they’ve rewarded a $100 backer with almost $900 in profit…Bettors have been conditioned to fade them not back them, but with a +11 run differential I think they have the ability to keep over-achieving based on pre-season projections.
3.) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Only 5-5 over their L/10 games but were offered as the DOG in every one of those, so it’s no surprise they are the MOST profitable team in the NL to date…They have a winning road record and are almost always the listed dog in those games…Now only 4 games out of 1st place in the NL Central and 1 game out of 2nd, they’re playing with purpose which makes them a profitable proposition since they’re continuously being discounted.
4.) SF GIANTS
Another team that continues to make the Top 5 even after winning the World Series just last season…A $100 bettor is up $700 and they continue to receive very little respect by odds makers and bettors alike…Fans prefer offense but this team does it with pitching and defense which suggests they’ll continue to get very little support at the betting window…and ultimately remain discounted.
5.) CLEVELAND INDIANS
They shocked the baseball world by coming out of the gate winning 6 of 10 games continuously, usually as the dog…Not having shown a profit for backers since 2007 and finishing 25 games out of 1st place in the AL Central last season, bettors weren’t buying into it…They still aren’t even though the Tribe continues to contend for the top spot in the division…With an obvious home field edge and a positive run differential, as long as they remain discounted they’ll continue to produce a profit for supporters.
Interesting stuff VR. Totaly agree w/you on the Nationals. Talk about middle relief man and then you have a good closer as well. There bats arent bad either.
Game...it definitely will and after a while it'll become habit and you'll refer to it daily for all sports...It's just so important to try and label each team to determine how much supporting info you may need or not need based on them being discounted or a premium being added...Best of Luck, VR
Zobel..I agree, the Marlins stock is as low as it's been all season long and that's the time I like to back teams...GL, VR
Add Florida Marlins to the undervalued list. They have turned things around in the last 2 weeks.
Will do VR as you have inspired at least one imitator. It will only help the bottom line to get into this habit.
Thanks Fellas...it's my pleasure and PLEASE feel free to pass along your own version of the list right here in the blog because I'd love to see how other bettors are viewing teams...Since it's a market, we'll all see value differently and I always respect other's opinions especially when I know they do their work...Best of Luck, VR
couldnt agree more with the Giants..... 12 games over now after two from cubbies, they can pitch great from 1 through 5