Allright Fellas...I have already passed along "3" Official Premium Plays for UFC's TUF Finale that's live from the Palms here in Vegas later this evening...Those 3 FREE Picks are available on Video at http://pregame.tv ...and I did go ahead and add them to Tonight's Premium Pass because even after the Wiseguys Steamed the same sides, there's still enough betting value to warrent a wager...

Throughout the day, I've also been passing along information & opinions for some of the other MMA match-ups at http://twitter.com/vegasrunner that I'm hoping may help some of you confirm a wager...I figure since I'm breaking down all of the matches anyway and gathering as much info from proven sources as possible, I may as well share it and see if others can find value...

We also have 2 marquee Boxing matches tonight on HBO & Showtime...

As many of you know, I have been covering the fight game more for Gaming Today and after gathering info and breaking down these 2 fights, it became obvious that there was definitely betting value to be had...

Now being a sharp bettor, I'm accustomed to looking at the Dog side first...But I've also learned that many times, especially in the fight game...the match-ups put together by promoters and match-makers are put together to serve a higher purpose...Because of that, many times we will have to look at the Favorite and not be afraid to pull the trigger when the price doesn't reflect the true win probability...

Bottom line..if I believe the "True Odds" should be -600 and the books are offering -400...then I'll focus on the value that I'm getting and not allow the price influence that decision...The reason I bring this up is because tonight, we have 2 examples of Favorites that are actually "Under-Priced"...even though the number looks like chalk...

 

CARL FROCH -400 over Glen Johnson....(2*)

This is the perfect example of how -400 just isn't enough even after the books have adjusted for the sharps who made an investment on the favorite...It's been well documented here in Vegas that many sharp bettors and betting syndicates are willing to lay a ton of chalk when they believe it's still an under-lay, to see a modest return...That's what's happened for this fight and I couldn't agree more...

Styles make fights and this isn't a good match-up for a very game Johnson who always comes to fight...I believe Froch wil be able to gain an early lead on the score-cards by being busier and out-boxing from the outside...Eventually when Johnson closes the gap, which he ultimately will...the aging fighter whose shown his legs just aren't there like they used to be, shouldn't be too much of a threat...That will allow Froch to hunker down and trade with him from the inside and also land some big shots...As the fight progresses and Froch is way ahead with the judges, Johnson will either look to make it to the end...or open up and take a chance, in which case we just may see a late stoppage...

Froch has shown the ability to adapt as the fight goes on and be just as effective when not dictating the pace...But in this one, I do believe he'll be in charge and will be able to stay out of harms way when he chooses, or mix it up if he senses weakness...The weigh-cut is a concern for the much older Johnson and we should see signs of this as the fight gets to the later rounds...When it's all said and done, Froch will either coast to a unanimous decision, or get a late stoppage and make a statement as he heads to the finals...

Speaking of the finals for this Super Six Tourney...From what I've gathered, the sanctioning bodies have already been preparing for an Andre Ward vs Carl Froch finale to declare the undisputed champ...So as much as I like Johnson and believe he's as tough as nails, father-time gets to all fighters eventually and because of that...I'm willing to lay the heavy price and look for a quick return on investment...VR

 

JULIO CHAVEZ JR -225 over Sebastian Zbik....(2*)

All mma/boxing bettors have to answer the question of WHY a fight has been made after they do their analytical handicapp...And the answer to that question will many times support what you've uncovered from the data, or will go against it...in which case you must be cautious...

For this one, the answer to that question is simple...

It's an opportunity to showcase Chavez Jr by putting him in the ring against an "undefeated" fighter who on paper seems to be a step up in competition...But more importantly, it's a chance to showcase his skills and build his resume against a fighter who has a great record, a pretty good name, and poses very little threat as far as styles go...

Zbik doesn't throw many punches and he definitely doesn't possess that KO power that would make him a "live-dog"...That should allow Chavez to not only look good and get well ahead on the score-cards, but also take a few more chances and strive for a convincing win via KO...

Sure, Chavez Jr's record has been padded and his name is the driving force behind the attention more than his ability thus far as a fighter...But he's surrounded by some of the best as far as training and sparring go and seems to be constantly improving...I do not believe his handlers would take the chance just yet to put him in harms way because this isn't the pay-day they've been slowly working towards...

Eventually, to make the big money they will have to put him in against fighters who are a threat...But this just isn't one of them and I believe we'll see another unanimous decision, or a late stoppage by Jr...VR