Betting MLB Run-Lines..When Do They Offer Value ??

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Betting MLB Run-Lines..When Do They Offer Value ??

"MORNING MOVES" NEWSLETTER for FRIDAY JUNE 3rd, 2011

BETTING MLB "RUN-LINES"....THERE'S VALUE WHEN FAVORED !!

 

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen...I wanted to take a moment and use today's Newsletter to cover some betting concepts...We've had so much going on in the betting market of late, that we've been using the Newsletter to primarily pass along information and picks...

But there is nothing I enjoy more than discussing handicapping and betting concepts because over the years, I've picked up so much from being around sharp bettors and believe that knowledge is as valuable as any other than I can share...

Bottom line is that even though we all like to cash tickets and win our wagers...the key to truly making money and turning a profit is understand the game...By that I simply mean we need to understand the way the market works and also know which factors to consider when gathering and analyzing information/reasoning...And more importantly, continue becoming more efficient as bettors and handicappers...

Today, I want to discuss a topic that has plenty to do with both...Because knowing the data behind wagering on MLB "Run-Lines" and understanding when they offer betting value, will definitely lead to more profits and also save you money...

The information I am going to present was offered up by Andy Iskoe...Andy lives here in Vegas and is a handicapper/sports bettor who graduated from Harvard and is extremely data driven...He's a value guy who uses an analytical approach when it comes to betting sports...I had the pleasure of doing a weekly radio show with him live from the Stardust back when it was the mecca of sports betting...And like myself, he also writes for the Gaming Today...

So here's the data that Andy put together on MLB RUN-LINES...

The Information presented is based on over 45,000 MLB games and spans over 2 decades...

 

HOME FAVORITES of -110 or More...WIN almost 58% of their Games Overall...

HOME FAVORITES of -110 of More...WHEN they Win the Game...they also WIN by 2 Runs or More almost 70% of the time...

 

ROAD FAVORITES of -110 or More...WIN almost 55% of their Games Overall...

ROAD FAVORITES of -110 or More...WHEN they Win the Game...they also WIN by 2 Runs or More almost 79% of the time...

 

That is some strong and amazing data when you stop and think that this reflects that when the Home Favorite of -110 or more wins the game...they also cover the RUN-LINE in 7 of 10 games overall...

And when the Road Favorite of -110 or more wins the game...they also cover the RUN-LINE if 4 of 5 games overall...

Now the goal is to take this data/study and try to make the sample size more recent by running the numbers for the L/10 yrs, L/5 yrs, & L/3 yrs...to see if the figures reflect the same...We all know that sports evolve like anything else and because of that, you have to also take into account if certain factors that are present now...which may not have been present 15 yrs ago, impacts the results...

Regardless, these are some pretty strong figures that ultimately support that when we are going to bet a favorite...we need to also consider if we might be better served and ultimately be getting more value, by laying -1.5 and bettng the run-line...

Please feel free to share your own thoughts and any experiences you may have when betting the Run-Line rather than the Money-Line when backing favorites...

Thanks again for all your support and best of luck ahead...VR

  • Just do what Spartan does... everytime a team is favored by -180 or more, just release that team on the run line.... he has done it on the last 14 favs in MLB of -180 or higher...

  • Just like the ML is a derivative of the point spread in basketball and football, the RL is a derivative of the ML in baseball.  To say "yes" or "no" to a particular run-line bet, you need a conversion chart.  Any bet is correct at the right price

  • Interesting data. I personally would not see much added value with -1.5 in most games based on -110 & up. It would be hard to justify giving away these points on games that are nearly even money. Considering the percentages posted above; (58% win hm 70% win by 2 or more WHEN THEY WIN) results in a 40.6% win percentage by betting the -1.5 at home. This is quite good with some added sophistication of the teams playing, but I'd be curious to see how much higher that combined percentage can get by increasing the odds floor to -140 & up (arbitraraly picked -140). I don't suppose you give access to to data sets? :P

  • great article, vr. oftentimes i have contemplated having a season in which i bet solely on the runline when backing favorites. one reason i haven't yet done that is b/c i haven't had time to compile any significant amount of data to help validate this system. i recall a while back, i think it was actually you who mentioned that only ~30% of games are won by 1 run (and of that sample, there are obviously some underdogs who won by just 1 run). i oftentimes hear of how sharps never touch runlines, but i think that's rubbish. laying big numbers on just the moneyline can certainly hurt you over the long-run. yes, there's going to be the instance in which the bettor who laid -156 on that favorite won, yet that favorite won by only 1 (so the person playing the runline lost), but over the long-run i wonder how this would play itself out. in any case, thanks for sharing the insight!

  • New to the site...love your work.

  • My Pleasure Game...Thanks for all your support and best of luck as always brother...VR

  • Good info VR.  Thanks for sharing.