"MORNING MOVES" NEWSLETTER for TUESDAY MAY 3rd, 2011
VR's NBA, MLB, & NHL VALUE TOP 10 LIST...for Week of 5-3 thru 5-9 !!
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen...It's Tuesday and that means it's time to unviel this week's version of my "Value TOP 10 List"...
I've explained in the past just how important of an exercise this is for all sports bettors and handicappers and also passed along the sources I use to help me form the list...
This has been an extremely busy week for me after being asked to write a couple of different articles for Gaming Today and also having to put a lot of work into the betting boards each day...Because right now, they are as exploitable and loaded with value as ever...
So to save on time and make sure that I get the list published and out to you without delay, I am going to bypass the long reasoning and go straight to the commodities and bottom line...Those of you who have been following the list weekly definitely know most of the main factors I consider for the teams I include...
Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck ahead...Vegas-Runner.
TOP "5" NBA, MLB, & NHL "OVER-VALUED" TEAMS in the BETTING MARKET :
1.) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER...Continue to make the list and oddsmakers will continue to place a premium on backing them because books claim they receive HEAVY volume every game and are tied into majority of exotics...Also playing "under-valued" team at the moment which attracts an even bigger premium...VR
2.) BOSTON RED SOX...The betting market continues to "over-value" the Sox as bettors continue to expect them to play up to the pre-season hype...A $100 bettor is still down almost a dime for the season backing them on the ML...Memo to fans, Sox may not even compete for the Wildcard...VR
3.) BOSTON CELTICS...Staying in Beantown but this time in the NBA betting market...Celtics are synonimous with Playoff Basketball and after disposing of the Knicks easily, it seems like fans want to now see them take down the big '"3" in Miami...The tide has changed from when the post-season tipped off...VR
4.) CHICAGO CUBS...The Cubbies have always had a huge fan base who aren't shy when it comes to betting their team...Because of that, it's rare to find much value backing them and with a Run-Differential Ratio of -35...they seem destined to repeat the past...Just as bad at home as they are on the road...VR
5.) DETROIT REDWINGS...This "Hockey-Town USA" club always gets money from the betting public and is almost always "over-valued" in the betting market...Nothing's changed in 2011 as they were installed as the favorite to advance to the Conference Finals even though they didn't have Home-Ice...VR
TOP "5" NBA, MLB, & NHL "UNDER-VALUED" TEAMS in the BETTING MARKET :
1.) ATLANTA HAWKS...Let's just keep them where they belong because no too many fans expect them to give the Bulls trouble...Considered lucky to get past a higher seeded Orlando was reflected in the Game 1 line vs Chicago...VERY DANGEROUS group of veterans playing their best ball of the season...VR
2.) SAN JOSE SHARKS...An after-thought in the Western Conference since the Canucks are such heavy favorites to get to the Finals and hoist the Cup...Oddsmakers made them a dog in the 2nd round even w/ Home-Ice...They've taken a 2-0 lead and will be in the Conference Finals and most likely more rested than their opponent...VR
3.) ATLANTA BRAVES...Yes, I still believe they are one of the most talented teams with a huge upside...They play in same division as Phils and the soaring Marlins and currently 4.5 games back...Bottom Line, Run-Differential Ratio is +24...putting them 3rd in NL...I see a winning streak on the horizon and the market being slow to adjust...VR
4.) DALLAS MAVERICKS...The one team with a higher seed in Round 1 who most experts saw being upset...But Dallas proved them wrong and in a year where they aren't expected to do much and have very little pressure on them...they have the pieces to be a very dangerous opponent...Regardless of how far they go, the market will show them no respect...VR
5.) CLEVELAND INDIANS...They may be the team that's earned a $100 bettor the MOST profit to date this season...They may have won 6 straight and 7 of 10...But the betting market can't shake the "Tribe" image of being in the basement w/ KC in most years...and seem to be waiting for a collapse...It's obvious to me that someone forgot to inform them because they just keep on making money...VR
I agree with you 100% brother...The Sharks aren't a sexy team but they get the job done and are peaking at the right time...They won 27 of 37 to close out the season and haven't stopped rolling...The best part is that the market continues to under-value them and I don't think that changes especially if they get the Canucks next...They may sweep the Redwings and get rest, but I'd prefer them to go 5 or 6 games so they don't lose too much momentum...
As far as the Red Sox...they received so much hype before the season that most bettors and fans are expecting that team to show up any day now and challenge for the division...
Since I'm a bettor, I don't care either way...I just know this team hardly ever offers much value...And when they aren't playing well, you can really make money fading them...Thanks for the input, best of luck ahead...VR
Haven't lost money on the sharks this post season. They are also 4-0 in ot. 2-0 for me when backing them after the third period. Big physical team with speed and a champion goalie. Tired of watching them choke. I agree on the braves. They don't score a ton of runs and they win right ugly games, I think that is why they haven't gotten a ton of respect, but they have a solid staff who keeps them in ball games and that bullpen is one of the best in baseball. Bettors love when they are safe with a lead in the late innings. Red sox juice is worse than yankees this season. I have found spouts for thee yanks where boston is almost a pass or fade every time out.