"MORNING MOVES" NEWSLETTER for TUESDAY APRIL 5th, 2011
VEGAS-RUNNER'S "VALUE TOP 10" LIST...for Week of 4-5 thru 4-11 (w/ NBA & MLB) !!
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen...It's Tuesday, which means it's time to release this week's version of VR's "VALUE TOP 10"...And with MLB now almost a week in, we already have a couple of teams that made the list...to go along with those in the NBA for the stretch run...
So I'm going to go ahead and get right to work, and skip passing along our current & long-term betting streaks on Premium Plays...Because the bottom line is that right now, we are doing DAMAGE...and you can check those out at http://vegasrunner.com for more details...
Now before we move along to this week's list...I simply want to once again point out, since we have more and more new Subscribers daily...that I am NOT advocating that bettors should BACK or FADE these teams every chance they get...
Instead, I am stating that based on the information that I've gathered from various Bookmakers, Wiseguys, Runners, ect...and coupled that with my own vast experience of reading this market...I am quite certain that these teams will either be offering bettors the "best of it" or "worst of it" throughout the week ahead...
And that bettors need to be conscious of the fact that they are either getting a "discount"...or being asked to pay a "premium" to back or fade these teams...
Yesterday, we discussed "Value" and what it truly meant in our market-place...And this is an extension of that discussion where I will be isolating those teams that should or shouldn't be offering up value in the coming week...
Now let's move on to this week's teams and the catagories that they fall under...VR
VR's "VALUE TOP 10" LIST
THE TOP 5 MOST "OVER-VALUED" TEAMS :
1.) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Let's just get it out of the way, and isolate a team that we know for fact will be extremely "over-valued" this week...and for plenty of weeks to follow this MLB Season...Bottom Line, there is NO other team in MLB that came into the 2011 season with the media hype that surrounded the Phillies...Here is a team that is not only being offered at +200 to win the World Series...but most of the hype surrounds their starting pitching...And we already know that the majority of unsophisticated bettors put way too much emphasis on the starters...Yes, they may be 3-0 to start the season, and if you bet them...so far you are up on the books...But rest assured that the oddsmakers will continue to put a premium on this team, and more importantly...with the CBB Season over, and the NBA soon to follow...more and more recreational bettors will be entering the MLB betting market...That means the oddsmakers can then put an even bigger premium on bettors wanting to back the Phils, knowing they will now get some balance for Wiseguy money steaming the other side...When it's all said and done, books will force the Phils to have to win close to 72% of their games for bettors to turn a break EVEN long-term...if the average lay price is -250...And history tells us that's NOT going to happen...VR
2.) LOS ANGELES LAKERS
This is actually the 1st time in the 3 weeks of publishing the list...that I have included the "public darling" and high-profile Lakers...So far this season, bettors would be down a little more than the Vig if they backed LA in every game that they've played...More importantly, they are only "15-23" ATS when playing at Home...covering at a mere 39% clip...With 3 of their final 6 games at Home...and the fact that they are now within striking distance of the Spurs, who they meet at the Staples Center next week...I have no doubt that oddsmakers will continue to charge a premium on LA...which should be enough to keep them below that 50% ATS "mean" for the season...VR
3.) BOSTON REDSOX
We touched on the Phillies who are in the #1 spot as far as "over-valued" teams are concerned...Well in the American League, the Red Sox are definitely the pre-season favorite to win the penant...and paying out a surprising +200 less than the very public-backed NY Yankees...So it's no surprise that a $100 bettor would be down almost $350 already backing Boston...But what is surprising is the fact they've come out of the gate 0-3, getting swept by Texas after being favored in ALL 3 match-ups on the Road...Now rest assured, they will eventually get some wins under their belts...But with the oddsmakers well aware that the betting public will continue to back them, awaiting the team who received so much hype coming into the 2011 Season...I have absolutely no doubt they will continue to charge bettors a premium to wager on them...and make it extremely difficult to turn a profit in the process...VR
4.) MIAMI HEAT
The Heat made our "over-valued" list before...and they're on it again as we approach the stretch run of the 2010-11 NBA Regular Season...They've cost bettors vig over their L/10 match-ups by going 5-5 ATS...even though they've been able to win 8 out of 10 SU...They now find themselves only 2.5 games behind Chicago for the top spot in the East...and having won their last meeting between 4 of the 5 teams they meet to close out the season, they will continue to challenge for that #1 seed...Fortunately for sportsbooks, and sharp bettors as well...the point-spread becomes the great equilizer at the betting window...So far this season, the Heat have NOT made their supporters much money...In fact, they are another "public" and high-profile team, loaded with super-stars...who are 2 covers below .500...And an even more costly 39% ATS when playing at Home, where they'll be for 3 of their remaining 5 regular season games...Bottom Line, whether they catch the Bulls or not...I am convinced oddsmakers will continue to put a premium on this team, and that the betting public will continue to "over-value" them in the market...VR
5.) NEW YORK KNICKS
Last, but far from least...we have another very "public backed" team in the NBA...And after landing such a marquee name, like Carmelo Anthony at the trading dead-line...they've only gotten more love from bettors at the window according to bookmakers everywhere...Although the Knicks were extremely "under-valued" coming into the 2010-11 NBA Regular Season, ultimately rewarding supporters with an impressive overall ATS Record to date, going a profitable 57% ATS...the fact remains that since that block-buster trade with the Nuggets, that may or may not have improved the team as a whole...we can be very certain that it didn't do them any good AGAINST THE SPREAD...And as sports bettors, the ATS is all that truly matters...Finally, with 4 of their remaining 6 regular season games on the Road, where they've been an impressive 23-13 (64% ATS)...we can be sure that oddsmakers will not be offering up much value on the Knicks...VR
TOP 5 MOST "UNDER-VALUED" TEAMS :
1.) KANSAS CITY ROYALS
There is no other team given less respect by oddsmakers and bettors alike in MLB...And even though they've come out of the gate 3-1 Overall...they continue to be bet against day in and day out according to bookmakers...Ironically, they are the team we used for our only MLB Premium Play so far this season...and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we continue to find opportunities to make some money backing them...Last season, bettors lost more backing the LA Dodgers than they did backing KC...And the St Louis Cardinals lost bettors TWICE as much as the Royals did...even though the Cards won almost 20 more games on the season...Bottom Line, obviously this team will almost certainly NOT be competing for the penant come September...And they may not even be competing for it by the time the All-Star Break gets here...But as long as this market continues to "under-value" this team, who I believe is more talented than last season's version...there should be some profit turning opportunities ahead for bettors willing to look at the price, rather than the jersey...VR
2.) WASHINGTON WIZARDS
This will be the 3rd consecutive week that the Wizards have made the "under-valued" Top 5...And as long as bettors continue to force oddsmakers to offer them up at a discount, they should continue to cash more tickets than they trash down the stretch...In fact, they've cashed 67% ATS over their L/9 games...with 6 of them being played on the road, where they've managed to win ONLY 3 times all season...and 2 of those came just this past week...As I stated the very 1st time I used them for this list, this is a team that knew early on they were NOT going to be playing in the post-season...So even though they may not have had much incentive to play well over the winter...with only a handful of games left, I expected them to show some life to close it out...knowing that it'll all finally be over soon...But before it is, they appear to want to have some fun and play hard...And I can't say it enough, that although we obviously want our DOGS to have a shot to win their games SU...the bottom line is that if I believe they are going to give me 48 min of energy, then they will always have a shot to cover the number...Finally, with some match-ups against some "public teams" on the horizon to end the season...I expect to continue seeing value on the Wiz...VR
3.) SAN DIEGO PADRES
Unfortunately for the Padres, even though they don't find themselves in the strongest division in MLB...they are in one that features the 2010 World Series Champions and the "public backed" LA Dodgers...meaning they are often over-looked, and usually "under-valued"...They came out of the gate 2-1, playing their opening set on the Road...But now they return to San Diego, where they get to play their Home Opener against the defending WS Champs...followed by that same LA Dodgers team I touched on above...Bottom Line, although the Padres did NOT make the post-season the L/2 years...they have rewarded their supporters at the betting window...by netting a $100 bettor over +$2200 in profit in that span...Finally, after speaking to some sharps who create a pretty accurate "Fair Line" (price that splits the betting action)...as well as looking at my own...it appears that the market definitely has San Diego "under-valued" again, to start the 2011 season...VR
4.) UTAH JAZZ
Past SU results support the fact that the Jazz have a very strong Home-Court Edge...And once again this season, even though they are well below .500 Overall...and will not make the post-season, they once again had a winning record when playing in Utah...But that has not resulted in a winning record ATS, which is the only thing that really matters in the betting market...In fact, they've gone a dismall "15-24" (38%) ATS on their Home Court...reflecting the fact that their past reputation had them "over-valued" throughout the season...But as the 2011 NBA Regular Season comes to a close, I believe the Jazz are as "under-valued" as they've been all season...And after losing 8 straight games, and 4 straight against the betting number...there aren't too many "public" bettors rushing to back them...But with upcoming games against some of the NBA's elite...as well as slim chance of getting to .500 Overall, I believe we will get the kind of effort needed to cover some numbers to end the season...Especially since they will find themselves in spots where they will be the extremely "under-valued" position...VR
5.) NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
No team came out of the gate any hotter than the Hornets did in 2010...BOTH, Straight-Up & Against The Spread...But the market eventually caught up with them, and they head into this final week...1 game below .500 ATS...They play 3 of their final 5 games at Home, where they've won an impressive 68% of their games...But that hasn't translated into profit at the betting window, where they've cost their backers a little more than the Vig...by going 18-19 ATS...Finally, as we near the Post-Season they will be looking to hang on for dear life...trying to get the opportunity to extend their season...Usually, the oddsmakers put a premium on teams in their position...But after losing David West, who scored 19 Pts per game...and considered a key component, for the remainder of the season...it's become apparent that the betting market has forced the oddsmakers to "under-value" the Hornets...who have cashed 60% ATS since West went down...Bottom Line, that perception won't change any time soon...And because of that, I not only expect to continue seeing value on New Orleans down the stretch...but that may very well carry over into the Playoffs, if they hang on to make it in...VR
Well there you have it...a detailed analysis and the reasoning behind VR's "VALUE TOP 10"...
I urge ALL sports bettors and handicappers alike...to go ahead and create their own version because it's a tool that I believe is a must...At the end of the day, the sports betting market is like any other market...So it definitely pays dividends to know which teams you expect will be "over or under valued" in the coming week...
Please feel free to comment and share your own opinions for this list...Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck ahead...Vegas-Runner.
Think I might jump on the Hornets tonight!!! The rising total has me a bit worried, but that might be due to the 8 million points they scored on Indy the other night. If you can share any thoughts, I'd be more than grateful.
Also its worth noting that I took 2 concepts of your to the bank this NBA season. 2nd half betting and "increased edge". You discussed how you increase your bets (I think Godfather even mentioned doubling) during the NCAA tourney. I have added the two and been cashing on a VR Sandwich. 2nd half = increased edge= me doubling my bet size (shit I have put up to 8 units on a 2nd half play. LA in UTA last week to name one)
Thanks again for all the info......keep up the good work!!!!!
Thanks Jay...I don't think that win will effect the Jazz much...You would be surprised at how many recreational bettors look to fade a team like that after they beat a marquee team...thinking they are due for a let-down...
I think we get another spot or two where they'll be under-valued when looking at their final few games...
As for that 2nd HALF Concept...It really does work better and better the further along the season is...Which makes sense because the lines should be sharper at that time..
Best of Luck, VR
Hey VR......Nice win for the Jazz last night. Hayward coming into his own vs one of the biggest teams in the NBA. How does a big win like this affect their "under-valued-ness"?
FWIW I love teams like Utah, Washington, Sac, Tor this time of year as this is essentially their "playoffs".
Thanks in advance for your thoughts.
And for anyone using your halftime strategy, SA was available at -3. CHA CHING$$$$$$
Thanks Tree...Glad you enjoyed the Videos and I plan on doing plenty more in the Future, with The Philly Godfather and a couple of other Wiseguys from their Outfit and a few others...that seem to be willing to go on camera...Or at the very least, I'll get them on a pod-cast because I think their understanding of the game and experiences will help bettors see that at the end of the day...this is a market, and the point-spreads are nothing more than the price...And that information is the key to ultimately determining where there may be value to take advantage of...Thanks again.
t420o ..I couldn't agree more...They seem to be Under-Valued each and every season...And this year, with the Giants being the defending champs...they should be even more under-valued in that division...Best of Luck, VR
3.) SAN DIEGO PADRES
Seem to always be undervalued. I am a Dodgers fan, but I really dont think they have a very good year this year. Pitching is ok, batting is ok at best. SD has good pitching and the hitting is better than last year. I look for them to finish 2nd in the NL west behind San Fran
Sweet man, that's what I was thinking (that the Grizz aren't public) but you confirmed it. Just watched the videos...MINDBLOWING...
Thanks Tree...I really appreciate that and I'll be straight with you...Memphis was definitely one of the teams that I was considering after leaving them off the "over-valued" list last week...And I agree, when you cover numbers at that rate...the oddsmakers are going to put a premium ALMOST every time out...
BUT...the only reason that I kept them off, is because after speaking with a handfulf of bookmakers...truth be told, they haven't been getting hurt from this ATS run...
Meaning, the Grizzlies may be covering numbers left & right...but the market-place hasn't been taking much advantage of it...
The reason is obvious...Memphis is NOT what we would consider a "public" or "high-profile" team...Because of that, it seems like bettors are afraid to back them now....and even willing to Fade them...
So even though I agree with you 100%...that based on their Overall & Current ATS Records...we should be able to conclude that oddsmakers will shade the number to try and get them to regress closer to the mean (50% ATS)...
The only problem with that sound reasoning...is the fact that it's the BETTORS that ultimately create the betting market...and so far, not too many bettors have profited from those results...
I'm following them closely for sure...and am interested to see what the oddsmakers do with this team down the stretch...
Best of Luck and Thanks Again...VR
VR, love the list. What are your thoughts on Memphis? From the All-star break they're 14-5 ATS, on the year have covered 65%, and are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games. You guys say not to bet against streaks ending but this is almost out of hand. Like today, I want to try and back LAC since I think the line should be more like MEM -8 but they're just so bad on the road. Or is it just that Memphis is not that public of a team?
Also, this late in the year we're seeing a lot of 8.5s and 10.5s as opening numbers in NBA. Are oddsmakers doing this because the know squares want to bet sweetheart teasers and furthermore do you factor that into your capping? Thanks & keep killin' it.