CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

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CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

Allright Gentlemen...Time to resume our "True Steam" for this week...Because of MLK Day on Monday, an extremely limited board on Tuesday, and then having to tape this week's video pod-casts...and work on an extremely huge board last night...this bet ends up being our first official "True Steam" position for this week...

We are currently cashing 67% of CBB "True Steam" Bets...Which has helped me stay RANKED #1 in CBB at The Sports Monitor for BOTH..."Winning % and Most Money Won" for a number of weeks...Which isn't the easiest thing to do when you wager as much Volume as we do...

And as you've seen with football and so far in basketball...the majority of these "True Steam" Bets, do make my Premium Card...Because these are always "steam plays" that are supported by my own Ratings/Numbers...And the only time that I don't Upgrade them to at least a 2u bet, is when I'm unable to receive more support as I try to confirm and finalize each day's card...

Finally, we are "40-21" (66% ATS) Overall on "True Steam" Bets for 2009 & 2010...And I really think that I've isolated another CBB position for tonight, that should add to those results...and also get Upgraded to a Premium Play...So let's get right to tonight's wager...

 

 

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for THURSDAY 1-21-10 :

1.) NC GREENSBORO opened -1....Now -2 (Bet UNC-Greensboro)

The opening number for this match-up went up yesterday evening, and did not receive any sharp money immediatley after opening...Nor did it receive any as Wednesday came to a close...So this morning, we were seeing UNCG -1 all across the board...But that didn't last long because we saw some Wiseguys step up and grab +1 on Tenn-Chatanooga...That surprised me at first because I had made my "Fair Line" UNCG -2...and my "True Line" -4...

But then I remembered one of the concepts that we've covered plenty of times in these Blogs...And that is, we know the Betting Syndicates always look for opportunities to get +POINTS with BOTH teams in the same game...Which means they end up with a "Dog Bet" on BOTH teams...And that is obviously a bet with plenty of value...So I sat back to see if I was correct, and if so...that meant the Outfits would try to drive the line up to -1 or higher on Tenn-Chat, so they can come right back and unload on UNCG at a Dog price...Especially if they don't want to take an official position, and instead are trying to earn via a "middle"...

Well, that almost happened...But as soon as this game went to PICK, it appears that at least a few of the Betting Syndicates saw that there was just too much value on the Home-Team...And rather than run the risk of being left out of the party, they imediately went to work laying all the UNCG at PK, that they could get their hands on...

They didn't stop there...and as the sportsbooks hurried to adjust, after seeing the "True" intentions of the Wiseguys for this match-up...the Outfits continued to lay UNCG -1 & -1.5...Which forced the adjustment all the way up to -2...

Now if you didn't see all of this take place...You may figure that this isn't really a significant move...Because it's only a 1 PT adjustment from the opening number...But nothing could be further from the truth...Because it appears that they like this position on UNCG so much, that they abandoned trying to get Both teams at a Dog Price so they don't miss out on getting down on UNCG at what I believe was an extremely weak number...

LINE PREDICTION : Bottom Line, after doing some work on this match-up...I am now convinced that this line was based on nothing more than "Public Perception"...Because the betting public is going to see that an 11-7 team is actually a dog, to a 3-15 club...that they've beaten 3 straight times...And because of this, I would not be surprised at all to see some public money come in on Tenn-Chat and help the books get some balance on this match-up...But because this is an "Added Board" game, and there are plenty of other match-ups to choose from...As well as a handful of Televised Games, I don't think that the public money on this match-up will be enough to bring this line back down to -1 or PICK...So unless there is another "Buy-Order" sent out, I believe that we should see this line stay where it is...with possibly a 1/2 pt adjustment either way...VR

Bottom Line...these Overall Records are extremely misleading...Because although UNCG is only 3-15, they only have "1" less Conference Win than their opponent, Tenn-Chat...

And more importantly, when we take a look at the "Strength of Schedule" (SOS) for BOTH teams...we find that UNCG has played the #17th TOUGHEST SCHEDULE in CBB...and #9th TOUGHEST "NON-CONFERECE" SCHEDULE in CBB

On the flip side...Tenn-Chat may be 11-7...But they've played the #304th TOUGHEST SCHEDULE in CBB...and #219th TOUGHEST NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE in CBB...

So those misleading Overall Records give us plenty of Value on this wager...And since my "True-Line" is -4, I believe that there is still enough value for us to step up and take a position on UNCG -1.5 or -2 as well...Thanks again for your continued support, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner...

  • Thanks fellas...UNCG got us a nice Winner last night...VR

    Guevones...I didn't like trying to middle unless I was able to get at least one of the sides at +2...And now that I do it for myself, I use the same guidelines...

    And the Wiseguys try to bet +1.5 most of the time also...

    Just last night we saw "5" GAMES that ended by 2PTS or less...So if you can get BOTH Teams at a DOG PRICE...with one of them better than +1...I think it's a profitable middle opportunity...

    What you need to remember is that although the Outfits are hoping to catch a middle...More times than not, they don't have the EXACT amounts on each side...So they end up with a position whether they want it or not because there are so many groups behind these moves that it makes it difficult to get all your money down at the exact number that you hoped for...

    Great conversations on these TRUE STEAM BLOGS Fellas...and Thanks again for all your support, VR

  • Yep, and I am already waiting for the Elon-Tenn Chat line on Saturday. Elon won at TC earlier as a big dog--one of their only wins. Line might be seriously inflated in favor of Elon.

  • great call!

  • Didn't touch this game--but did hop on Elon for something to do early. Elon shoot 22% FG and 2-11 from three and is still only down 23-16 at the half. I am REALLY glad it isn't even on ANY channel I have!!!!

  • i used to middle a lot and would hardly ever middle on +1, +1 except in occasionally in basketball. (but maybe I was just missing out on something). Problem I saw was, you cannot purely middle it because games can't end in a tie. also, if you can't purely middle a game, then you need to have 2 games out of every 22 land on a 1 just to break even. that can happen in basketball with all the close games between evenly matched teams but, it is far more preferable to have middles between 2.5 to 4.5 and the like than +1, +1, in my opinion.

    However, if you're a Book that also goes out and buys up a number to strengthen your Book's position when folks are later gonna come in and take that same side at -1 where you have a bunch of it at +1 then that's a whole 'nother matter altogether.  

    VR --- you think that's what happens a lot when these games flop between +1 and +1? I mean, is it more books going out and buying the better number as opposed to the syndicates doing it? That was always my suspicion.  

    VR --- again, love the True Steam blog. It's what originally brought me to Pregame.  

  • Thanks Doc, I appreciate that my friend...VR

    Roll...it happens more than bettors can imagine and there was this one new bookmaker at a Down Town Sports Book who I will keep nameless...And for a while, he would forget to adjust the ML when a Side got "Steamed"...and not to alert anyone, we were instructed to bet less than $500 on them, but to do it a couple of times throughout the day, even if we had to give some a quick $20 to go to the window and place the bet...

    That error cost this particular book 10's of thousands of dollars before they ever picked up on it...And that manager obviously lost his job, but it goes to show that these guys are human and do make mistakes...

    The exact same thing happend when we attacked the "Parlay Cards" and rocked so many books for a long time...And it took them forever to figure out what was happening, which is why when you go into a Vegas Book...although they still have 5-6 different cards out, they don't have 10-15 like they did back in the late 90's...

    I called a friend of mine who is the best "Line-Tracker" in the business, which is also why he is the best scalper/middler on the planet...And he just told me that CRIS put up -4.5 at  5:51:51..and by 5:52:25...they had adjusted it to -1, where it should have gone out...So that error was caught in 34 seconds...But before the internet, that may have taken 15 min to see, and in that time, they would have gotten "steamed" from every Wiseguy out there...VR

  • MUCH OBLIGED SIR .

  • Thanks for the feedback VR. What you explained makes sense but only if they get down on +1.5 or better on both sides. Weird how the books "accidentally" open a game at a number that is 2-3 points off the line they "want" but I'm sure it happens from time to time. Anyway, thanks for answering the questions. UNC Greensboro seems like a solid play. May tail this one small..

  • Even though my numbers say Chattanooga my Conference numbers say Greensboro +0.5 to -5 which was surprising at first glance knowing how much this team has struggled. Add that in to when I saw this game steamed from Pk to -2 I figured it was sharp money. Thanks for confirming, and best of fortune to you tonight.

    Doc

  • Thanks Fellas...Roll, I asked that same question when I was a runner and the only thing I can do is tell you exactly what I was told...Ideally, they like to be able to get a little more that just +1 on BOTH...And usually are able to get at least +1.5 on one of the sides, if not both...And it's worth doing not only because there are games that are won by 1pt...but it's also worth doing because they end up getting one of the teams that should be a Fav, as a Dog...And that becomes an automatic position for them...

    As far as the LINE opening up 4.5...That was a mistake that has not been corrected because CRIS put it up at 4.5 accidently for 30sec, and didn't end up booking a single penny on it because they caught it immediately and in less than 60sec...took it right back down and put it up at -1...Which is where The Greek, Pinny, ect ended up opening the game...

    We see them do this a lot with 1st halves and sometimes even the game...And if they didn't see if immediately and someone did get down...they would recieve an e-mail as soon as they saw their error, letting the bettor know that they have "voided" that bet...

    It's happend to me a couple of times over the years, when I did more betting offshore...And I can't remember a single time that I got paid for it...Although I did get away with it here in Vegas, but offshore they could pull pretty much whatever they want, without any recourse by the bettor...

    Hope that clears it up some...And thanks again fellas for all the support and kind words...VR

  • oh and all my opening numbers show UNC-Greensboro opening at -4 or -4 1/2? Where did you get -1 from?

  • Hey VR-

    I love these blogs, I just have a question that nobody has been able to answer as of yet. So here goes...Why do sharps like to get both teams at +1? I don't understand the "middle opportunity" there when one team will lose the game. Unless it is +2 on both sides I don't see how that position can be profitable. Can you explain this please sir?

  • nice work VR. The "true steam" blog is great info for EVERYONE. Keep up the great work as usual!