NBA on TNT "TRUE STEAM" for THUR 1-14-10 !!

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NBA on TNT "TRUE STEAM" for THUR 1-14-10 !!

Allright gentlemen...we are now "39-21" (65% ATS) on "TRUE STEAM" for 2009-2010...And after a "4-0" SWEEP last night, I really feel that our ratings/numbers are as sharp as ever...And I feel so good at how well we are running in all sports currently, that I'm going to pass along a bet on tonight's marquee match-up...So tonight, we are going to try and get WIN #40 by taking advantage of another "Prime-Time" Televised Game...

Truth is, I have always felt that these "Prime-Time" games offer up some of the biggest edges as far as "Line-Value" is concerned...Because there are no other games, where the oddsmakers have to account more heavily for "Public Perception"...than these televised marquee match-ups...Reason being, they will almost always receive the most betting action...And it's on these games, that the "Public Money", far out-weighs the "Wiseguy Money"...So the line is influenced more than ever by "perception", rather than "true strength"...

And in Tonight's late TNT Match-Up, I feel that we have an opportunity to get our money down...while we are getting the best of it...because of what I just touched on...So let's get to that bet right away, and see if we can cash in on this line error...VR

 

NBA on TNT "TRUE STEAM" for THURSDAY 1-14-10 :

1.) CLE/UTAH Total Opened 196.5....Now Total is 195...(BET UNDER)

Here is another one of those situations where the Betting Syndicates just weren't willing to show their hand when the total for this match-up was first offered yesterday afternoon at CRIS...And as we've touched on before, it don't make sense for the Outfits to take a position on a game, when there are very few "outs" willing to book it...and the limits are lower...So rather than take advantage of the line mistake immediately, they prefer to sit back and wait for more books to offer a line...

The reason this "steam" play really jumped out at me, other than the fact my "True Line" for this total is much lower than what is being offered...is because since this is a TNT "Prime-Time" Game...and more importantly, the late game (which almost always will have the most money pending)...and we are sure that the betting public will side with the OVER...the Wiseguys could have easily sat back, and allowed that pressure from the public, to force the books to adjust this total even higher...

But as I've said countless times...it's not as if these Betting Syndicates work together, nor is there just one group with an opinion that forces the books to move their numbers...So even though there may be a handful of Wiseguys who are looking to take a position on the same game, it becomes a race to see who can get the most money down, at the very best number...And although there are many times when these Outfits would love to sit back and allow the public money to force an adjustment which would give them an even bigger edge...it becomes impossible to do when someone steps up and begins to "steam" a side or total...

And rather than miss out on the party, they then are forced to step up themselves...and take their position now, knowing the number won't be the same for very long...And as the books begin to adjust, more and more of the value is gone...

That's what happened here, because very early this morning...the UNDER 196.5 got "steamed"...And although the books adjusted their total some, it wasn't enough to keep the others away...So before you knew it, the Wiseguys had positioned themselves at UNDER 196.5, 196, & 195.5...Which forced the adjustment down to 195...where this total is now at, almost all across the board...

I believe that we were looking at such an inflated total because of the fact these 2 teams played earlier in the season, and we saw them go Over the total by "20 Points"...And when you look at the series recently, you will see that 3 straight games between these two teams have gone Over the total...But with that said, only 1 of those totals was set higher than 191...

Then when you look at the current form of both these teams...you will see that BOTH have gone Over in 3 of their L/4 games coming in...And each scored 117 & 118 respectively in their last game, which was played on Monday night...

So the "perception" coming in is offense...But I believe we are in for the total opposite, and instead this will become a defensive battle where both teams prefer to play a half-court game...than run the floor...We know that Shaq is now probable, which means the Cavs will be more prone to post-up...and I have no doubt that we will see more of that from the Jazz as well...

Finally, both of these defenses come in allowing only 94pts (Cle) and 97pts (Utah) per game...

With Clevelands Defense being Ranked #1 in FG% Allowed...and #3 in PTS Allowed, while Utah is #9...

Bottom line...we have a spot where the Total is definitely inflated based on nothing more than "perception"...And it's these type of spots, that if you can get your money down on enough...will eventually lead to long-term profits...Which after all, must always be the main goal and focus if you truely plan on beating the books in the long run...VR

LINE PREDICTION : I would not be surprised at all to see this Under get "steamed" some more...But with that said, although we will then see it dip even a little lower than 195...I believe that it will then begin to once again climb back up as the betting public begins to get involved and place their wagers on tonight's games...And since this is the late TNT match-up, we may see if climb some more right before tip-off...So even though I feel that at 195, we are really getting the best of it...I don't think that we risk losing any value by waiting until much closer to tip-off, to take our position...

Thanks again for all your support...We are now RANKED #1 in CBB for WINNING % and MOST MONEY WON...(at The Sports Monitor)...After finishing up the NFL Regular Season, RANKED #2...This is a great time to be betting sports, because so much is going on simultaneously...that it becomes very difficult for there not to be plenty of mistakes to take advantage of...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner.

  • Doc...It's not that anyone should be betting more Favs at this juncture of the season...And truth is, the Outfits bet more dogs all year around than anything else...

    But it's during this time of the season, that some of those Favs that are off...offer the biggest edge because of the fact, the oddsmakers are are more prone to give up value on dogs, than they are on favs...

    And the reason for this is because those Outfits bet more dogs than anything else...

    So it's not that the wiseguys are looking for favs...it's just that when they are willing to back a fav at this time of the season, they usually end up with more value than when they back the dog...And this is why we've seen more of Bill's Bets on Favs than anything else...Which always changes as the season progresses...

    As I tweeted yesterday...It's because early on, the battle is almost exclusively between the Wiseguys and the Books...With the public giving very little action...And since the books know their tendencies, they will always shade the dog some early on...

    I hope that makes sense...Sometimes things don't come out the way they are in my head...so forgive me for that, I'm not too good at articulating my thoughts...So let me know if you have any questions because I don't want bettors to think that they should be looking at the favs more...Because nothing could be further from the truth, and doing so will definitely cost them...

    I wouldn't really change my ratings because you always want them to be as sharp as you can possibly make them...And depending on how sharp they are, you will be able to find those edges, just like they do...But I would keep in mind that until we get closer to the end of football every year, the lines are aimed more at beating the wiseguys, than they are in beating the public...

    Thanks again for your support brother and keep up the great work...I always enjoy reading your threads and the reasoning that goes into your plays...Some high level shit my man, Keep it coming...VR

  • Hey VR, Docwatson here. Question about a Tweet you did yesterday. Here is the actual tweet.

    "What he said made perfect sense & it's high level reasoning...He said that before the public comes over from FB to start betting a lot more basketball, the oddsmakers lines are aimed to beat Wiseguys... "

    My question(s) is this...Is that an opinion from Bill, or a fact? Second question is...I use my own numbers, and that are 99% towards dogs. Will my numbers generally be better after FB season, or should I re-evaluate my stance afterf football.

    I hope to hear a response.

    Best of Fortune and advanced Congrats on any success you may have!

    Doc

  • Thanks Fellas...that one was close, but I'll take a Winner whenever I can get it, however it comes...lol

    Elijah...That my friend is one of the sharpest questions that can be asked...Because I say it time and time again, that although the information provided by sites just like ours...which shows BETTING %'s is definitely something that should be considered when betting into this market...But with that said, you also have to make sure that you keep the information in perspective...

    Because as I discussed on one of this week's video's...those stats are based on "Ticket Count" and not "MONEY BET"...And as an ex-bookmaker and runner, I can tell you for certain that many times, they are 2 totally different things...

    And not being able to differentiate the 2, can be extremely costly...

    As of today, there are no sites that I know of who are able to pass along "Money Bet"...And I don't know one bookmaker who would be willing to sell that kind of information because it could be devastating to them if used correctly...

    Fortunately, I have plenty of strong sources that are bookmakers...And because some come from back east, others from the islands, some here in Vegas, and other parts of the country...more times than not, I am able to come up with what the actual "MONEY BET %" is for the majority of games...

    It's funny because when the Eagles play...the majority of back east sources need the other side...and when the Chargers play, many of my sources out here need the other side...But when you take into account all of the sources, many times I find that what they need, isn't what the books as a whole need...

    I truely doubt that there will ever be a site that will pass along that information...and if they do, I'd be very interested to know where they are getting it from...So for now, the best way to get it...is from actual guys who book...Best of Luck, VR

  • I saw it go down to 193at BM now back up to 194 1/2 I think it will get 195 just be for the tip.

  • VR...Luckily I couldn't touch the last one because sportsbook wasn't taking it, but I'm kinda glad you lost because I know this will be a winner...keep it up.

  • i liked the Under when i saw this come out last night and with you're endorsement I like it even more. I too see this as a big-game prime-time defensive battle finishing up in the low 90s. thanks for your work, man.

  • Saw where you say % show $ on cleve and books you spoke to say its actually on utah.  Are there any sites that you know that show this information? I use pregame and vegasinsider, but they show%.

  • I played it early this morning @ 195.5 now seeing 194.5 and even some 194 out there. Good Luck VR.