I was only able to Isolate "1" NFL "TRUE STEAM" Bet for Week 16...But we got the money, as the NY JETS were able to get the SU Win...
And I'm sure that those of you who have been following this Blog on a Daily/Weekly basis...were able to conclude just how huge of a position the Outfits took on the Jets...when they didn't come back to try and work a "middle"...even after the books adjusted it down to that Key Number of "3"...
In fact, as I passed along in yesterday's Pod-Cast with Dan & Mike...I had spoken to a "runner" early on Sunday morning who actually informed me that the JETS +4 was still on his "Buy-List"...And that he expected other Outfits to be looking for the exact same thing...And they didn't disappoint, as we saw the Betting Syndicates just continue to pound the books with more and more Jets money...
And as we've seen from this Blog all season...the Betting Syndicates have really been cashing their biggest positions in NFL & CFB...
And historically, they've been able to do the same with Basketball and Baseball...Especially as the seasons progress, and they strengthen their numbers...While simultaneously increasing their EDGE, as more and more recreational bettors get involved...
Tonight, according to my own Ratings/Numbers...I've been once again able to Isolate that "1" Early Move that will be our "TRUE STEAM" BOMB for Monday's Action...
NBA "TRUE STEAM" for MONDAY 12-28-09 :
1.) NJ NETS opened +6....Now +5.5
This is the kind of "Steam Play" that so many bettors miss out on, because the adjustment doesn't look significant...But truth is, these are some of my favorite type of bets...Because they are so well concealed, and we are able to usually get as good of a number as the Betting Syndicates did for their position, thanks to the "public"...For this "move", the Wiseguys didn't show the sportsbooks their hand until the day after a line for the game was offered...And by doing this, they were able to grab some extra value for their wager...Because when the books opened the line up at -6, the Outfits just completely ignored the game...So when the rest of the books, who open up their betting lines later put this game up...they felt confident that they could adjust it upwards, due to the anticipation of public money on Oklahoma City...And they went ahead and opened the game at 6.5, which is where almost all of the books were at this morning...
That's when things changed...because the Wiseguys began buying up all the +6.5 & +6...that they could find on NJN...And that much "steam" caused the books to adjust this game down to 5.5, and even as low as 5...Which is a HUGE MOVE...since the books are well aware that the betting public will come in on OKC, in a big way...VR
LINE PREDICTION : As I stated above, we saw the "steam" force the books to drop this line all the way down to 5...After a couple of the Outfits were willing to buy some NJN at +5.5...But since then, most of the books have felt comfortable in adjusting this line back up to 5.5...Not only because it looks like the Outfits got down as much as they had hoped for already...But also because they know the public is going to come in heavy on the other side...And the books want to make sure that they force them to lay the highest number possible, without tempting the Wiseguys to come out for Round 2...I do think that those Outfits were able to get down what they wanted...Which means that the books should be able to go ahead and keep adjusting for the public money that's expected...This is why we are now seeing 5.5...And I wouldn't be surprised if some of the "squarer shops" were to take it all the way up to 6...
So if you plan on following myself and the Outfits...then I would go ahead and wait until much closer to tip-off, for the very best line...
But if you plan on fading, then this may be the best line that you get on the Favorite for this match-up...
Either way, I'd like to thank you all once again for your continued support...and wish you all the best of luck, Vegas-Runner.