NFL "TRUE STEAM" Wk 16..."3-0" Sweep L/Wk !!

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NFL "TRUE STEAM" Wk 16..."3-0" Sweep L/Wk !!

We have had an incredibly successful season identifying "True Steam" in Both, the NFL & CFB...But more importantly, we've been able to isolate those handful of positions taken by the Betting Syndicates, that offer the most betting value...And it's really paid off...

We went "28-13" (68% ATS) for the Entire Season...and an even better, "23-8" (76% ATS) over the L/2 months...

Which goes to show that as we strengthen our Ratings...and the Oddsmakers/Bookmakers have to adjust heavier for "public perception"...we gain an even bigger edge...

Unfortunately, the CFB Season was over a few weeks ago...and the NFL Season is coming to a close...

And when it comes to the Post-Season...there are so many different manuevers that the Outfits use to try and profit...from middling to scalping, to allowing the "public" to force adjustments that ultimately provide betting value...that it becomes almost impossible to uncover the "True Position" of these Syndicates until game-day...Which I will pass along to Subscribers as "Personal Plays" or "Late Steam" on Game-day...

Fortunately, we have now had a few months of NBA & CBB...And I will continue to strengthen my Ratings/Numbers as we move forward...which is also what the Wiseguys are doing...So that when the football season is all but over, and more recreational/public bettors begin getting involved in basketball...we will once again have the same opportunities that we've had in football to beat the books...

I'm not sure whether it's because of the terrible weather the country is experiencing...or whether it's because the holiday's have even the Outfits taking it a bit easier until the weekend gets here...But as of Thursday, there have been very few "True Positions"...And even fewer that my own Ratings/Numbers support...

But with that said...I was able to Isolate 1 "True Steam" Bet that I know for fact, the Syndicates took a significant position on...and that my own work supports as offering excellent betting value...

And I've decided that I would go ahead and Pass it along to all of the Forum Members...and so many others who use this information daily/weekly for their own work...for FREE...As my way of saying Thank You, for such a great season of "True Steam"...

Without your interest and participation...I probably wouldn't have continued putting so much work into it, and I definitely wouldn't have seen the need to do a Daily NBA/CBB Blog...So Thank You...VR

 

 

NFL "TRUE STEAM" for SUN 12-27-09 :

 

1.)  NY JETS opened +7....Now +5.5

This is the kind of "move" that really used to baffle me back when I first started moving "steam" back in Philly...Because I never understood why they would send out a "Buy-Order" for a huge "Public Favorite"...as soon as the lines for the following week's games went up...That was, until I moved out here to Las Vegas to move "steam"...

Because back in Philly, although I knew that I wasn't the only guy moving "steam"...I did think that the main source/s was the same...But when I moved to Vegas, and got the chance to stand in the Stardust Sportsbook for the very first time...on a Sunday evening at 5:30pm pst...it all became crystal clear...Because it was on that very first Sunday, that I realized we weren't alone...

Truth is, I didn't even see the importance of putting my name in the hat Joe Lupo would hold out for us to put our names in, for him to draw positions for what place in line we got to take...And I remember that when the lines finally went up, although I had a list of possibilities...I didn't end up being able to take a single position...Because there were so many other "runners", "wiseguys", & "sharps" who were already waiting to jump on any value that was there...

And that is when it became apparent...that there were a handful of Betting Syndicates...whose information was as strong as ours was...And that's when I realized that my success was going to depend on my ability to beat them to that betting value, each and everyday...

This is why we saw the line for this game move immediately...Because although the betting public, is obviously going to be betting the Colts on game-day...when the books hung that 7 up there for this game...there was already enough value for the Betting Syndicates to start betting, rather than risk being left out of this party...

Of course they probably could have gotten better than +7 if they waited for the public to start betting the Colts...Which would really add some extra value to this bet...But the bottom line is that even at 7, it was worth a significant position...And more importantly for us, there was plenty of value, even at less...

So when this line came out on Monday afternoon...the Wiseguys went to work and started betting the JETS +7, +6.5, & +6...

This forced the adjustment all the way down to 5...Which is where it closed when the betting ceased on Monday evening...VR

 

LINE PREDICTION : Although my "True Line" shows that there may still be some value in betting the Jets +5...the truth is, I really don't think that's the number that you will end up getting, if you decide to follow the Wiseguys...Because even if the Outfits don't decide to try and attempt a "middle"...there will be more than enough public money bet on the Colts -5...and also on "teasers", that the books will be forced to adjust this line and move it back up some...So far, none of the guys who we have access to, that move "steam"...have said they expect to try and "middle" this game...But with that said, they did take a big enough position...that the books shouldn't have any fear in moving it back up, because these Outfits won't need anymore Jets action...But even if a few of the Outfits do decide to try and attempt a "middle"...which some ultimately should, for at least some of their position...the books will again be able to move the line back up...And that will be an attempt by the books to try and give the betting public, the worst of it...So bottom line, either way...unless word comes out that the Colts aren't going to play their starters like normal...we will see this line go back up between now and kick-off...VR

So if you plan on following VR and the Betting Syndicates...by betting the Jets...Then I suggest you wait until closer to kick-off, for the very best line...But if you plan on backing the Colts, and fading the Outfits...then I would go ahead and lay -5 now, because I don't think it can get much lower...Unless, as I mentioned above, there are rumors of starters not playing their normal time...

That is the this week's NFL "True Steam" Bet...And it is the ONLY "early move"...that is truely supported by my own Ratings/Numbers and more importantly, "confirmed"...

 

Finally, I do have a handful of possible bets for Sunday's NFL...that do appear to be actual "True Steam" Positions...But as of today, they just haven't been confirmed...But I will continue working on confirming those, and will go ahead and use them for this week's NFL Subscribers Card...if I'm able to do so...

Thanks again for all your support fellas, and best of luck...Have a very Merry Christmas...and an even Happier New Year, Vegas-Runner.

  • This one could have been considered a "True Steam" GOY...Because this was by far one of the BIGGEST MOVES that we've seen, without even an attempt at a "BUY BACK"...Which is so telling since it was down to such a Key Number (3)...

    I was glad to be on Dan & Mike's Pod-Cast yesterday because it allowed me the opportunity to pass along the fact that according to a "runner" that I had spoken to just prior to them calling for the Pod-Cast...his Outfit had actually sent out another "Buy-Order" on NYJ +4...

    And he informed me that he knew others who had that same order on their lists for Sunday's "Buys"...

    So we were pretty sure that even with so much "public money" on INDY...that the books would still be forced to drop the game down to "3"...

    And at that point, I called everyone we have access to...to see if they were being asked to try and work a "middle"...

    Strange thing is...they ALL said NO...That they were keeping the entire position on the JETS...From +7 all the way down to +4 (I was told that some were even buying +3.5 & +3 before kick-off)...

    This just goes to show you that sometimes...even after the books adjust for the Wiseguy Money...there is still Value left for us to take advantage of...

    Obviously, it's more powerful and valuable when we get this type of info well before the Syndicates move on it...But at times, because the books have to deal with so much public money, which far out-weighs Wiseguy money in NFL...they can only move a line so much...

    While other times, as with the JETS...the sportsbooks just can't adjust quickly or even enough...to take away the Value, when the bet is based more on a "Handicapp"...than on the "Number"...

    For the Jets bet...it was a combination of BOTH...

    Best of Luck and Thanks again, VR

  • RJ-Dude, how is your bloodflow?  Anyone that wears their heart on their sleeve as much as you do is going to have a heart attack.  For a guy that talks about needing thick skin in gaming, you sure are sensitive when it comes to Pregame.

    I am thankful for VR period and I don't wait til year end to tell him.  I usually make a point to thank him when we are getting our brains beaten in and they are breaking out the paddles.  Spartan, Goodfella, and your whole crew are some pros.  VR is a professional.  Right or wrong, he puts serious consideration in to his plays.  Sometimes he fades the public too much and late steam hasn't worked so much lately but hey, wiseguys can be wrong too.  From my perspective, he is great for telling me what they are doing since he is dialed in.  I look at other guys too for real game analysis when I think he is just following the wiseguys plays (Colts are a great example so far this season).  

    Regardless, you have a good crew.  Free speech man.  If people didnt care or werent interested, your forums would be empty.  Take a vacation or go get liquored up with some strippers.  Your spring is wound too tight.    

  • Thank You All so much...I really do appreciate it and it's an honor to know that so many really good handicappers...as well as plenty of new sports bettors...have been able to use this information for their own work...

    Truth is...when I began in this racket, there were very few Sharp Bettors that were willing to discuss topics like these...And because of that, sports bettors were never brought into it by someone who could show them some of the right ways to try and beat the market...And most of those guys who were selling picks, didn't know any more than the people they were selling to...

    This is why I love Pregame...Because it gives me the opportunity to discuss topics just like this with so many bettors who are as passionate about sports betting and learning, as I am...So Thank You, VR

    DION...it obviously looks like the Wiseguys felt the market was going to over-adjust for the EAGLES...due to "Public Perception"...And they were waiting to grab the points as soon as the line went up...

    Unfortunately for them...the books took a pretty wild approach to try and see what the Outfits would do...While also trying to prepare for all the public money that's going to come in on game-day...

    And what we saw was that some brough it out as high as "9"...

    BUT...to get that +9...you were asked to lay up to -130...Something that the Betting Syndicates will very rarely do when it comes to "point-spread" sports...

    So those books that went that route, saw very little Wiseguy Money...until, they went to 8...

    Because that seems to be the line that the majority of Outfits got down on DEN...and some even took +7.5, I've been told...

    The reason that I didn't use this game for this week's "True Steam" Blog...even though I do think that it is a "True Position"...is because as of today, the opportunity exists for the Wiseguys to try and work that "middle"...

    And I am extremely interested in seeing whether or not they attempt it...Because depending on what they do, we should all be able to see exactly how strong of a position they are willing to take...If of course they decide to keep it...VR

  • Great post.  I'm somewhat new to sportsbetting and have been trying to do my research.  I was wondering if anyone was willing to take a second to fill me in on more of this "steam" concept. Any info would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

    -Wolfie

  • seeing the true steam blog posted somewhere else is what led me to this website. i loved the info VR was dishing out and it was winning me money, and on the type of games and plays you wouldn't normally expect.

    as for this specific true steam play, i think the sharps are chasing because they've lost so much damn money fading the colts this year and they think it must eventually come through. colts continue to cover (maybe 75% this year) yet aren't respected by vegas or the sharps. fortunately, they've been my cash cow this year. don't know if i'll take the colts on sunday but i just can't take the jets.

    that said, on VR's true steam play last sunday on TB, I thought there was no way in hell the lowly Bucs could cover on the road, and that game wasn't even close. considering that, i might just play the Jets.

  • Thanks VR for the weekly true steam blogs.. man, so much info..

  • near the end of the year, readers should take a moment to thank VR for the amazing contributions with TRUE STEAM - lots of people sell picks, but VR is among the few who give away TONS of valuable info too.

  • VR-All my best to you and yours.  

    FYI, looking back every time this season the wise guys have bet against the Colts, they have lost.  Many times the Colts don't cover but the weeks we did play against them, it wasn't good.  They are all business.  Anything under 7 seems like a gift.  Just looking historically at the last 2-3 bets against the Colts.  

  • hey vr, you wanted me to remind you here about the seemingly huge move on denver...the line dropped from +9 to +6.5, before finally adjusting back up to the key #+7...looks like a middle attempt to me, which it appears some got at the +6.5.....what did you hear about this move - was it steam or a middle try, cuz it seems to me this line should move back up with philly $$$ later in the week, wouldn't you agree???

  • interesting,so you've been at the stardust window for the opening line,that is so cool.love to have that experience some day.I think its cris now that has that dubious honor now,is'nt it?i'm in for a vacation to costa rica