Allright Gentlemen...after "5" Straight Winners...we had a loser last night, and are now "25-9" over the L/7 Weeks...And Cashing "68%" of "True Steam" Bets for the Year...
Now today we have a "True Steam" bet that I had already penciled in as a strong lean while I was starting to break down the boards last night...
Because according to my own "True Line", I felt the number should be -12 and I made my "Fair Line" for the game -9.5...
So when they brought it out at 8, there was obviously value there based on that...But I still needed to capp the game to support those numbers...And at the time, the Outfits hadn't made any move on that side that I liked...So I was a little surprised and was anxious to get to work this morning and see if I was wrong...
But this morning...things really changed, because over the last couple of hours, we have seen Outfit after Outfit, step up and take a strong position on this side...And they don't seem to be looking at any "Buy-Back" yet, because the 2nd & 3rd wave of "steam"...has actually come from the Syndicates themselves...and not from "followers", which is usually the case...
So let's get to Tonight's Bet...and see if we can cash another one...VR
NBA "TRUE STEAM" for WED 12-23-09 :
1.) SA SPURS opened -8.5....Now -11
As I mentioned above, when those books that usually offer the first lines for games opened this one up...they all went ahead and put it out at 8.5...Because when the "very" first book (CRIS) opened their line at 8.5 and got no action from the Wiseguys, everyone else felt safe following their lead...And as of late last night, the most we saw in terms of movement...was a slight 1/2 point adjustment, to 9...Which is where the Vegas books opened the game...And we all know that these books here in Vegas, are usually the LAST to offer a betting line because they don't wany ANY Wiseguy money at all...So as of this morning, we were seeing some books still at 8.5...while others went ahead and offered the game at 9...And that's when things got hectic, and the Outfits sent the books scrambling to get it right...Because until they do, more times than not...these Betting Syndicates are going to punish them for it...And when the books do make that mistake of over-adjusting, the Wiseguys will try and punish them some more by trying to work a "middle"...For this bet, the Outfits went ahead and laid -9...then -9.5...and then went on to even lay -10 on the SPURS...And that forced the adjustment up to 11...Which is where the line is as I write this...VR
LINE PREDICTION : It's obvious to me, after speaking to a couple of runners who work for different Outfits...that the Wiseguys got more than enough money down at the numbers they wanted...And they took a very significant "position" on this game, which was based on "Line Value"...and "Handicapping"...Now usually when this is the case, what we will see next...is an attempt at a "Middle"...Which usually comes in the afternoon, if the Outfits don't think the "public" will help their cause...Other times, when the public bettors are able to help out...the Wiseguys will wait until very close to game-time...I believe that in this spot, the "middle" will come sooner than that, because I can't see the public bettors in any rush to lay double-digits with the Spurs, which would have helped move this line even higher...This is why I won't be surprised at all to see it come back down to 10.5 or even 10 by tip-off...With that said, if we do see this line go up above -11...then you can be 100% sure that the Outfits see this as a HUGE opportunity to get the BEST OF IT...Because a move like that would mean it is based even more on their handicapp, than on a difference of opinion on the line...Usually, when it's only based on the "line"...we will see the number get to where the Outfits think it should be, which usually happens pretty quickly after the lines are offered...And as soon as it's adjusted to that number, they back off for good...So my advice is to continue monitoring this line because most likely, we will see it come back down to 10/10.5...And I still believe there is betting value there...Otherwise, we will see this go up even higher...in which case, believe it or not...I would be even more confident to lay the points...VR
I want to thank you all for your continued support, and for your participation in these blog...
I also want to wish you all the best of luck, and Happy Holiday's ahead...Vegas-Runner.
OOPS FORGOT SAN SPURS I GOT A HEADACHE MAN I'M OUT A HERE
I HEAR YA DAVESSLER
HOW ABOUT 2 DIMES MIL NBA
3 DIMES BOSTON COL
3 DIMES W VA
3 DIMES CAL NAACF ? 4 TH QUARTER
2 DIMES UNDER ATL DEN NBA
2 DIMES SAN JOSE ?
That www.coverspics.com free picks website is working on a 7-1 run NBA and a 15 to 3 team parlay
Well, between two BC points and two WV points---four points equals four dimes............
Check out www.coverspics.com for a comparison and the best part is, it's free!!!!
Looks like its hanging out at +11 just about every where. I think its gonna drop to 10.5 or 10. Love this blog lots of fun.
with the early indications of the number of tickets written in favor of portland at this time (60%), I too will wait till it comes down to -10 and wait for total line to move down to 186.5 and grab some overs.
I would think this play & line movement has a lot to do with Roy's shoulder injury from last night. Some places have him listed as questionable, others doubtful. Thoughts?
I really like the Spurs here . I just grabbed it at -11. If Portland has no big Center to contribute... this could be a blowout and a possible under play. Wouldnt you say so VR?