NBA "TRUE STEAM" for FRI 12-18-09

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NBA "TRUE STEAM" for FRI 12-18-09

Allright fellas...I think it's time that we start trying to pick off some "True Steam" in NBA & NCAABB...And take a closer look at some of the "early moves" throughout the week...

I plan on publishing this Blog on a Daily basis...Monday thru Friday...And passing on the Weekend because there is just too much work that needs to be done early on Sat & Sun...

As the season progresses, and especially when football comes to an end...we will begin seeing a lot more "early moves"...Because the books will show more "balls" (for lack of a better word)...and begin offering lines for much more games early...As well as increase the amount that they are willing to book on those opening numbers...Because they know that they have the Betting Public to fall back on, to turn a profit...

Since Friday is the biggest day for NBA...I thought that we would kick it off with an NBA Bet...

And as we move forward and I see that the Outfits have kicked it up a notch...I am hoping that we are able to once again isolate a Best Bet...

So without further delay...let's see if we can start off with a winner...VR

 

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for Friday 12-18-09 :

 

1.) MEMPHIS opened -4.5....Now -6

This is a very big move and extremely significant because with 2 ESPN Games...and a handful of good match-ups, this game will receive very little "volume"...And if I know this, it's obvious that the books do as well...Which is why as soon as the Wiseguys went to work laying the number with Memphis...the books had no problems adjusting...

What stuck out to me the most was that the books wouldn't put a line up on this game until very early this morning...And as soon as they did, we saw that the Wiseguys immediately felt that the line was too low...More importantly, after the first Syndicate or two bet it when the line first went up...forcing the move from -4.5 to -5...we then saw a few more come in about an hour later and lay -5...Which tells me that there are a handful of Wiseguys who all agree that the number was too low...

The books didn't take any more chances this time...and went to -6 right away...

Now don't be surprised if this line takes a dip before game-time...Especially if between now and then, this line climbs a bit more...

Because I know from experience that plenty of these Outfits will take the opportunity to limit liability, while possibly setting up a "middle"...By coming back and taking the points for a small amount before tip-off...Which will then force a late adjustment...VR

 

LINE PREDICTION : I would be surprised to see this line get any higher, because I know for sure that the Outfits were able to take a substantial "position" already...And I think that if they wanted a bigger one, they would have done so...Because this isn't a game that will get "volume", like we touched on above...Which means that they can't count on the betting public's money to help them get a better line than where it is right now...And because of that, I wouldn't be surprised as I stated earlier...to see this one drop a little...If you agree with the Wiseguys, you may want to sit back and wait for a possible drop...But if you disagree, then I would go ahead and grab the points now because you probably won't get much better...VR

  • great info and pick.  this is super info.  thanks for your help.

  • VR,

    Thanks for your input.  I have gotten several games and the people only wanted a certain number.  I have been told to not play if you can't get the  "WANTED" number.  it is tough to decide to play on my own at a different number.  An example happened to me last weekend.  I was told to play at 10 and couldn't get 10, but I played at 12 for myself and it hit 11.  If i had just passed on the game I wouldn't have had a loss.

  • JC...I was actually thinking the same thing...I would have expected to see SAC go to -2 or even higher...Because I don't know any Outfits that are on the other side...and none of the tellers at the books that I talk to said they got any Sharps that came in on Min...

    Maybe the books are willing to take a position rather than open up "middles"...Otherwise, it don't make any sense...

    As far as UTAH/ATL...I know for fact that there was a disagreement between Outfits and BOTH sides caught some "Steam" and they all backed off when it settled on 6...So that must be where the Wiseguys feel the line should be...

    I do know that the books will be cheering in the UNDER...and I'm actually looking that way also...Because that line-move is in "Anticipation" and action booked already on the Over...from the public bettors...

    I thought the line was high based on my own Ratings/Numbers... But I haven't been able to confirm a bet yet...VR

    Errmorgan...GREAT F**king question brother...And I love when I see bettors thinking at that level and trying to reason it all out...

    Truth is, there really isn't a right or wrong answer to that question and it all depends on whether YOU still feel the adjustment hasn't take away the Value...

    Some look at it from the perspective that when the Outfits stop betting a side...that they are saying that there isn't any more Value...

    But that's a bit naive because I moved "steam" long enough to know that sometimes...we were just able to get enough down, that we didn't need to keep betting...Even if the line hadn't gone to where out "Stop Buying" point was...

    So in the end, I think it all comes down to a game by game...and play by play analysis...And we shouldn't have a rule...one way or the other...

    Best of luck, hope that helps brother...I didn't mean to avoid the question...It's simply that there really isn't a "correct" answer...VR

  • vr,

    what are your thoughts on getting in too late on steam games.  i have ran into this a few times.  like the memphis game,  steam came in at 4, but i have to play at 5 or 6.  when is it a disadvantage to play the steam?

  • Also if wise guys and public are hammering the Kings the books must have a couple wise guys on Minn also because it doesnt seem that they are to bothered as they havent really adjusted that line at all. Any thoughts? I know a wise in Vegas who made an early play on TWolves

  • Hey VR love this steam info i swear it makes my day.. Curious what you were seeing with this Jazz/Hawks game. I like the Jazz here. I think im seeing a little reverse line movement also. Wise guys steam the Jazz?

  • BTT...the Wiseguys agree with you because I know a couple of guys who took +9 on NJ right away...And they also bet the UNDER in that match-ups as well...

    As far as the Memphis side...I don't think it will go higher unless they STEAM it again...Which I really doubt because from those I talked to...right now it's no longer on their "Buy-List" so it appears they got down what they wanted to on Mem...And more importantly, so far the books I've spoken with are getting split action from the Public on this game...Although it's still a little early to guage that info...

    I would wait and see if you can get -5 because I know many don't feel there are any "Key Numbers" in NBA...But truth is, more games are decided by "6" Pts...than any other number, I'm almost positive...With 5 being 2nd...VR

  • sorry meant ORL..LOL

  • thanks for the post VR!!

    do you think that the outfits will buy back this later? i am leaning towards Memphis, should i wait or buy now?

    also, how do you feel about NJ/TOR game? line has dropped with some steam towards NJ..I like this game too, After a long away trip for Tor being pummeled by MIA & TOR, I see them being tired, thus NJ keeping this one close..

  • Research...you are actually the 2nd person this morning that already asked me about that exact Total...

    So I'll pass along to you exactly what I already did earlier and tell you exactly what I know...

    When this line first went up...there was an Outfit that felt the same way you do, and bet the UNDER...But when the line dropped a bit,  a couple of other groups came in and bet the OVER...And hit it pretty hard...

    Now with the books anticipating public money on the OVER...they went ahead and "Over-Adjusted" for the amount of "steam" they actually booked...

    What I'm interested in watching is what happens next with this game...Because if the public does come in on the Over as expected...then the books will adjust some more...

    And when they do...I want to see if any of the Syndicates decides that the UNDER really has some Value now...

    I lean UNDER right now as well...But we have to respect that "early move" because it was based on "steam" and not simply trying to give the public the worst of it later...Because the public bettors don't get down until much later in the day...

    Best of Luck, VR

  • great info VR - thanks for sharing

    any thoughts on the line move in the Houston/Dallas Total from 195 to 198? I am thinking that is all "public" money driving that line up with guys taking the OVER given this:

    these two team shave played twice this year:

    totals in those games have been 200 and 199

    final total points scored have been 224 and 229

    so this total should be way higher than those two games, given that they scored 224 and 229, right?

    wrong:

    total is 195!!!

    that is 29 and 34 points less than both teams have scored in the 2 games they have played this year - and the total is 4 and 5 points lower than the other totals in the games they have played this year, even though those games went way over the total