The "TRUE STEAM" just keeps on Winning...and after another "3-1" Week...it's now "18-6" (75%) over the L/5 Weeks...and "23-11" (68%) for the Season...
To be perfectly honest, coming into this week's match-ups...I knew that it was going to take a lot of work and information gathering, because we have a limited NCAAFB board...And as I've explained before, there are always going to be fewer "Early Moves" in the NFL as the season progresses...
As we can see from what lines are available...the sportsbooks are in no rush to give the Betting Syndicates numbers to move on early in the week...They want to have a better idea of what these Wiseguys may be looking for, and more importantly...get a feel for what the "betting public" will be coming in on as the week moves forward...and especially on "game-day"...
Because as I've said countless times...the "public money" will almost always out-weigh the "wiseguy money"...when it comes to the NFL, especially on those "Prime-Time" marquee match-ups...Which is one of the main reasons that I not only love betting into the books on those match-ups...but I'm also confident enough to make them some of my biggest bets...
Fortunately, I was able to put a lot of time into this blog since Sunday evening...and with the help of so many other sources, I was actually able to find "4" NCAAFB & NFL "TRUE STEAM" Bets...that my own Ratings/Numbers, support that there is enough "value" for us to take a position...
And I was also able to ISOLATE one of those four...and have uploaded it into the System for Subscribers already...and have also uploaded it into a package for daily players...as this week's NCAAFB 3* "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK...
And we'll look to stay PERFECT and make it "3" Straight Winners...
But like I said...I was able to uncover "4" positions that offer some excellent betting value...So let's get to those other "3"...VR
NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" for SAT 12-5-09 :
1.) FLORIDA INTL Opened +1.5....Now -1/-1.5
This is one of those "added board" match-ups that almost exclusively get bet on by the Wiseguys...Very rarely does the betting public get involved, and even when they do...the "wiseguy money" will definitely out-weigh it...So the books will usually put a "circle" around these match-ups...which imposes a "limit" on how much money they are willing to book...Usually, that limit is 1/2 of what they would usually book...and in some cases, it's even less...Now the good part about that is you can almost always be sure that if the line moves, there was some "steam" behind it...Unless there is an injury, weather, ect...The bad part is that the books won't hesitate to move the line drastically, to stop other Outfits from also betting into them...But because that opens the door for a nice "middle" opportunity, in the last few years...I've noticed them adjusting much less...Back when I was a "runner" and we called this the "junk board"...it wouldn't be surprising to see the lines on the "added board" move an entire TD...And back then, even teams like Ball St & W Michigan...were considered "added games"...So with that, let's get to this move...The books brought FLA ATL out as a -1.5 pt road fav...And the Wiseguys began grabbing +1.5...then +1...and finally even laid PK...Which forced the books to make FLA INTL a -1 pt fav by the end of business on Monday...But the Outfits weren't done, because they went ahead and "steamed" FLA INTL once again this morning, laying -1...and forcing some books to go directly to -2, while others opted for -1.5...And right now, we are seeing anywhere from -1 to -1.5 to bet FLA INTL...VR
LINE PREDICTION : Those books who went to -2...opened the door for one of those "middles" that we know the Outfits love taking...Because they were now able to get BOTH teams at +1.5 or better...And of course, that's exactly what they did...which is why those who did go to -2, have since come back down...So the books now are sure that if they raise this line, the Outfits will step in and work that profitable middle...Which leads me to believe, that unless another "Buy-Order" comes down...this line should stay around -1/-1.5...And with any "public money" that may be bet on this game, expected to come in on FLA ATL, that should help minimize the risk...at least a little...If you agree with the Wiseguys, then you could wait and see if they do adjust some...But if you disagree, and like the other-side...then I would look to grab the +1.5 now...VR
2.) UNDER TEX/NEB Opened 46.5....Now 44/43.5
This is an extremely significant move for such a marquee match-up, and I'm really surprised that after CRIS opened this Total at 46.5...the Wiseguys reprimanded them over 3 pts...You would think that for such a "marquee" game, even though the books have to factor in "public perception" more...that they wouldn't have been so far off...But obviously they were, and the Outfits let them know it...More importantly, the books are expecting overwhelming "public money" on the OVER in this match-up...So the fact that they were willing to lower this that much, tells me the books really RESPECT this "steam play"...And it didn't take long at all, for the books to show that respect because in a total of only "6" MINUTES...Cris went from 46.5...all the way down to 43...More than a FG move to the Under...And because "43" is one of those "Key Totals"...the Wiseguys obviously saw some value in trying to work a "middle", so they went ahead and bet some Over 43...Which is why the rest of the sportsbooks brought their Total for this game out, anywhere from 44 to 43.5...And that is where it stands this afternoon...VR
LINE PREDICTION : It's no secret where the "public money" will be for this Total...It'll all be on the OVER...And since the sportsbooks saw that a move to 43, prompted the Outfits to act...and attempt a "middle"...the only way this line drops some more, is if there is a huge "weather" factor on game-day...Because I really don't see another "Buy-Order" on the UNDER, and the "runners" I spoke to already, don't either...With that said, if you agree with the Wiseguys and VR...then you can sit back and wait until game-day, when the "public money" possibly forces the books to raise this Total...But if you disagree, then I suggest you go ahead and bet that Over now...because this line should move only 1 way from here on out...and that's Up...VR
NFL "TRUE STEAM" for SUN 12-7-09
1.) SEAHAWKS Opened +1....Now PK/-1
I was a bit surprised that we saw a couple of "early moves" in the NFL this week...But with that said, I know from experience that the majority weren't "TRUE STEAM"...And it won't be until later in the week, when the lines are up for every NFL game...that the Outfits will begin to truely take some positions for this weekend's NFL match-ups...But there was 1 move that I know for fact to be "TRUE STEAM"...And more importantly, my Ratings/Numbers support that the Wiseguys were right on point with this "steam play"...Now this is once again, one of those "moves" that many bettors who follow line moves...or try to piggy-back steam, would definitely miss...Because it doesn't appear to be very significant...And since it was made swiftly, and at only a number of books...it makes picking it off very difficult...Fortunately, we have access to many of these bets from the very people who bet them...so more times than not, we won't miss these subtle "Bombs"...For this "steam play", CRIS put out the first line and they made SF -1...and as soon as they did, the Wiseguys unloaded on SEA at +1 & PK...This move forced the other books who open a bit later, to make SEA now a -1/-1.5 fav...So what did the Outfits do next ?? Exactly what we expect them to...And that's take the +1.5 on SF...so that once again, they have BOTH teams in the same game as DOGS...But I can tell you for certainty, that the much "bigger position" is on SEA...And that's the side they will need come Sunday...But because of that "middle" attempt...we are now seeing this game at a PK, or SEA -1...VR
LINE PREDICTION : This is another case where both, the bookmakers and wiseguys know that the "betting public" will come in heavy on SF...But if the books allow that action to force them into making SF the fav again, then they open themselves up to get "steamed" on SEA by the Outfits, again...In my experience, what we usually see here is the books trying to get this game to go off at a PK...And not make either side the Fav...Many times, that becomes impossible due to "public" or "wiseguy" pressure...But that is what the goal will be for this game...And I don't believe that either team should go off at higher than -1/-1.5 by kick-off...VR
Those are the "3" TRUE STEAM Bets for this week's NCAAFB & NFL Match-Ups...Along with "1" Isolated "TRUE STEAM" GOW...
There have been a lot of requests for me to create this Blog on a daily basis...so that it can include NBA & NCAABB "TRUE STEAM"...And Ithink that is a great idea, and one that I do plan on doing...
Because I've seen just how much you guys get out of it, and how much you appreciate it...And I also know that so many other excellent cappers include this information in their work...And my goal has always been to simply become a "sharp source" for bettors...
With that said...these results aren't by accident, and truth be told...there is a lot of work that goes into creating this blog each week...
So before I jump into the NBA & NCAABB "TRUE STEAM" daily...I want to make sure that everything on my end is organized and ready to go...And I just need a little more time because there is a lot going on at the moment in sports...
But I will definitely continue working towards making that a reality...And I will begin publishing it as soon as I know the quality will be as good as it is for this weekly blog...
I want to thank you all once again for your support, and wish you all the best of luck...Vegas-Runner.
VR anything look good with this Oregon total?? Public has to be all over the over...Any feelings???
Thanks Fellas...I know that you guys look forward to this information each week, so I keep trying to not only provide those games that my own numbers support the most...but also try and let you in on how these Outfits operate, and some of the different things that they do...to beat the market long term...VR
TommyJohn...You are absolutely correct, and that's exactly what I said in this week's video pod-cast break-down of that game...Because you can be 100% sure that the Wiseguys thought that the Total was brought out way too high...and that's the reason behind the "steam"...But after moving those "steam plays" for as long as I have...this also looks like a perfect opportunity for them to come back and take the Over, for some of that bet...And not because they don't love the Under, because I know they do...But they do that because to them, this is a "market"...nothing more, nothing less...So they will try and manipulate it every chance they get...and being able to go Under 46 and possibly Over 43 or even 43.5...Is a long term profitable middle opportunity...But it's those kind of moves, back up or down...that makes following "steam" so difficult without solid sources of info...Because you are left guessing..."do they like the Under or Over now" ???...Thanks again my friend, VR
Elijah...I'm not sure which ratings you use...But always make sure that they are updated...and more importantly, are showing a profit when the line/rating differs...Because there are so many really weak ratings out there that aren't close to what these Outfits ratings are...VR
WinterHeat...We broke that game down in a pod cast yesterday...And I passed along that I am 100% sure the Betting Syndicates Bet BOTH sides of that game...So according to them, this line is where it should be for this game...And the way to beat it now, would simly depend on handicapping...not neccesarily on 'line value"...Which is ok to do in many instances, and I actually spoke about that exact thing for my FREE POD-CAST GOW...VR
Payday/DeFaz...The Wiseguys Bet DALLAS...2 different times...On Sunday night when the lines first came out...then again on Monday when more outs were available...The only thing you need to be cautious of here, is that because the books are expected a lot more Dallas money from the betting public...the Wiseguys may simply be looking to get ahead of that wagering, and get the best number...Which will then allow them the opportunity to come off that "steam play"...and take the Giants if they decide they don't really like that side...And don't forget, 99% of these Outfits are also booking...so the ability to "edge-off" the expected public action at a better number, is always a possibility...VR
Jimmythe Greek...the Wiseguys haven't touched that NE game just yet...And they usually do very little "early steam" in the NFL...Especially as the weather becomes a much greater factor, and injury reports get longer...the further along in the season we are...So you will see most of those "steam moves" take place on Fri & Sat...then those final 2hours before kick-off...VR
3Bets...That suspension, and the ?? status of Ingram have really created a problem for the books...And they are so scared of these "Betting Syndicates", that they aren't willing to offer a betting line until they are sure...Because they have absolutely NO confidence in the oddsmakers anymore...No greater proof than the fact they aren't willing to offer NCAABB Totals, even for marquee televised games...until only hours before tip-off...For the Bama game, I really don't think we will see it reach that key number of "7"...I mean, they will avoid that at all costs...and the ONLY way that would happen, is if Ingram's status gets downgraded to "Out"...or, the Wiseguys and Public both bet Florida at a high ratio...Otherwise, I'd be surprised if this went above 6...VR
Fellas, I hope I didn't miss any questions...Again, I encourage them and love that we have a place to discuss all that's happening in the betting market....I always look forward to answering any questions that you may have...and if time permitted, I'd sit here and talk sports betting with you all day long...Unfortunately, with so much work each day...it's just not possible...But PLEASE don't ever take it personally if I didn't respond, and feel free to ask it again and again, because many times...it's that I simply didn't see or remember it...Thanks again, VR
Are these differences just based on the fact that if the lines coinsided with the ratings as most of them do vegas would be opening itself up to large sums of money on minn,det,philly. And knowing this are we able to find value in these lines?
First time I bought your plays last night. Great JOB!!!! Who else would find value in weber st. and utah st. The only off game I was looking at was san diego st. Anyways was looking at the oddsmakers ratings this morning and saw a couple of lines that were off. According to ratings...............
Cincinatti should be -17 line is 13
Arizona should be pickem line +3 and on sportsbook +6
Atl -1.5 line is +5.5
I love SEA and got them when they were a pick. This is a big divisional game and while we're on the bottom looking up at ARI, Qwest field always gets loud and I see the Hawks going back to back wins against div. opponents.
Talk about line moves, too... DAL went from a pick to -2.5 QUICK! Should everyone really jumping off on the Giants that much??
VR.. awesome info as always.. can you talk about the FLA Bama line.. i see at +6 books.. do you see that holding steady?.. any chance this will get to 7 by gametime?
GREAT INFO. V.R. ANY OPINION ON THE LINE MOVE PATRIOTS/ DOLPHINS. I REALLY LIKE THE PATS. HERE -5.
what are your thoughts for the Steam Move going in favour Oregon?
it opened -7 and is now -9.5 or -10 while most wager sides are coming in on Oregon State. would this indicate a play on Oregon?
your site seems to be a good source of sports news and other sports related stuff just like another sports blog "www.gccongressi.com/.../basket-ball-dozensports.html" which I came across. I am looking forward to it.
Great stuff as usual.
Just wondering what is going on wtih DAL v. NYG as the line has moved from NYG -1 to NYG +2/+2.5?
Note that Texas v Nebraska is at Cowboys Stadium so weather will NOT be a factor.
VR I am a new subscriber and this is why I think you are the best in the business. Your knowledge on this racket is second to none.
Love love love this blog.
2 more games I have noticed
Houston pk to -2
Rutgers +2.5 to -1 Is this one of those times where the outfits are trying to get both teams as favs. It looks the pub will be on wva especially after their upset of pitt so it seems like a true position since they could have waited and got rutgers at 2.5 or maybe 3.
Cmu 10.5 to 13
Awesome information as always VR...and congrats on a big game of the year cover last night!