VR's TRUE STEAM.."11-3" the L/3 Wks..Now 69% ATS Overall !!

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VR's TRUE STEAM.."11-3" the L/3 Wks..Now 69% ATS Overall !!

We come in off a "3-1" week with our "True Steam" and are now "11-3" over the L/3 weeks...We've also cashed "69% ATS" on all "True Steam" bets, since I began choosing those "early moves" that my own lines/ratings support the most...The key to our success has been finding those wagers that the Outfits have taken the most significant positions on...which have continued to beat the books throughout the NCAAFB & NFL Season...

Because as they've proven for years past...and will continue to, for years to come...the oddsmakers and sportsbooks have always been a step or two behind these Betting Syndicates...And more importantly, as sports betting continues to grow in popularity and more recreational players enter into the equation...the edge these Outfits have seems to only get bigger...Because when the "Public Money" outweighs the "Wiseguy Money"...the oddsmakers and ultimately, the bookmakers...are forced to factor in "public perception" even more...

You have probably also noticed that I continue to pass along the fact that these Betting Syndicates are now begining to make it harder on the sportsbooks, by not showing their hand early...And instead, waiting until more "outs" have put a betting line up for the following week's games...Because with the lack of confidence that the bookmakers have in the lines sent to them by the oddsmakers, we've seen more and more sportsbooks either limit the "early wagering"...and in many cases, even refuse to put a line up until they see what adjustments had to be made...by those books who are willing to put out the "early lines"...

And this cat and mouse game gets even more interesting, when we are dealing with sports which are played each day...And when we begin doing the "True Steam" for basketball very shortly, I will let you know many of the manuevers that these Betting Synducates love to make...

I have really gotten into this "True Steam" blog because I see the amount of interest so many handicappers have for this type of information...And nothing is more important to me than knowing that you can be assured that this information is completely accurate...

Remember, unlike my "Line Predictions" blog which I publish each Thursday...in an effort to inform bettors when the best time may be to wager on certain games, in order to get the "best number"...which I am able to do because of so many years of monitoring line moves...this "True Steam" blog is loaded with information that I gather from many various sources...

This information comes not only from bookmakers like BookieBill and so many others that I have access to...But it comes directly from those "runners" & "beards" that are actually some of the bettors who are behind these line moves...And these are all contacts that I've made during the decade plus that I spent moving "Steam"...as well as others that I have met since becoming a professional sports bettor myself...

And I will continue to provide this information for FREE each and every week for Football...and eventually every day for other sports...With the only information which will be available for purchase, being the "1" BEST "True Steam" BET OF THE WEEK...Because I believe that it's important to try and isolate the position that shows to offer the biggest edge based on my own ratings/lines...

So without further delay, let's get right to this weekend's NCAAFB Action...and see if we can CASH some more "True Steam" bets...VR

 

NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" : WEEK 11

 

1.) AKRON opened +13....Now +10.5

Most times, you will hear me say that the reason it is so difficult to truely make money trying to follow "steam"...is because many times it's extremely difficult, due to the various actions these betting syndicates make, to know for certain, not only which bets they like the most...but more importantly, IF they are even taking a position at all...But in this match-up, we have a perfect example, of how many times...with the proper reasoning, as handicappers, you can properly be sure that the "move" is an actual "steam play"...The reason for this is simple, this is a weekday match-up...which more importantly, will be broadcasted by ESPN...So the books and the Wiseguys alike, both know that the game will get some betting action, and even though the teams involved are not marquee schools..."Prime-Time" match-ups will always receive the most betting interest...So with the anticipation that the betting public will ultimately back the favorite, the Wiseguys could have easily gone ahead and allowed the public to possibly force the books to adjust...possibly to 14, which would make it now a 3-score game...And when the books initially offered a line on this game back on Sunday, although I found out it was on more than 1 outfit's "buy-sheet" due to a difference in opinion of ratings...I thought we would see the Wiseguys wait, because as of the close of the business day Sunday night...the sportsbooks didn't receive any sharp money on the Dog...But the Outfits were simply buying time for more outs to open up...and possibly, to get a better number if the books felt safe enough to adjust, as the public began betting the favorite...But then, on Tuesday morning...as soon as one Outfit went ahead and took a position on AKRON, it triggered the rest of those Syndicates who also had them on their radar, to move ahead and also take a position...So before you knew it., this line had moved all the way down to -11...But the Wiseguys weren't finished, because they came right back on Wednesday, looking to buy up all of the +11's that were available...So we can be sure, that they really see some value in backing AKRON...VR

LINE PREDICTION : Since the books went ahead and adjusted further, this time down to 10.5, we have seen some go back up to 11...Which looks to me like they are really trying to avoid getting to 10...Because as we touched on earlier, the books are expecting heavy public money to come in on the favorite on game-day...and they don't want to be in a position where BOTH, the Wiseguys and public bettors WIN...Also, by moving down to 10...it would immediately open up a middle opportunity for those Syndicates who got down at +13...to now come back and lay -10...giving themselves a 3pt middle...So I expect we will see this game stay steady at around 11, while those books who cater to public money and don't accept much sharp money...may go ahead and raise it some more...VR

 

2.) OHIO opened +1....Now OHIO -1

N Illinois opened as a 1pt road fav on Sunday, and the Wiseguys immediately bet OHIO +1...forcing the adjustment down to PK...Then, without much hesitation, the Outfits went ahead and bet OHIO at a PK...which opted most books to move them to a 1Pt favorite...Now we've covered before, that the Outfits love to be able to get BOTH teams in a match-up as DOGS...So I wanted to see whether or not, that would be the case in the game...Because if they did, then we would be able to chalk this up as a "middle" attempt...rather than a "True Position"...But here we are on Thursday, and that just hasn't been the case...And you can rest assured that this is a significant position for the Betting Syndicates because after speaking with some books, it appears that the betting public is actually betting the other side, N Ill...Now this match-up will not bring too much volume to the sportsbooks, so they will be forced to take a position as well...And nothing supports that more than the fact that we are seeing some of the books re-adjust this line down to a PK...which eliminates any "middle" opportunity...VR

LINE PREDICTION : The books are obviously going to hope that whatever volume they do get from the betting public, that it's on N ILL...This will offset some of the liability that they have on this game...And because I expect that they will...unless the Wiseguys send out another "Buy-Order" on OHIO, we will most likely see this number stay at around a PK...But if they do, by betting this "True Steam" bet now...you really should end up with the best number possible...VR

 

3.) BYU opened -7.5....Now -10

CRIS was first to put a line out on this match-up, and when they did at -7.5...they immediately were forced to move to -8, due to the Wiseguys laying the favorite...We then saw the majority of books open their line up at -8 also...Which is where it was at the close of Sunday...I believe the books were fine with this, because they expect plenty of 2-way action to be bet on this match-up by the public...But on Monday, the Syndicates shot down that dream, because they came in heavy and organized on BYU...The initial reaction from the books was to take it up to 8.5, but once again, the Wiseguys let them know that this mistake was going to cost them...And the Outfits went right back to work, laying all the -8.5's they could find...This forced some books to minimize their risk, by going straight to -10...While those who didn't, and opted for 1/2 pt line moves, continued to get "steamed" at -9 & -9.5...Which is why we are now looking at BYU -10, all across the board...VR

LINE PREDICTION : This is now at a very critical juncture, and I know for certain that the sportsbooks are holding their breaths...to see what the Outfits decide...Because they now have themselves a "middle" opportunity...But they've had that same opportunity for over 24hrs, and so far, none of the Wiseguys seems to want to attempt it...Which tells me that they believe the books made a huge error bringing this out at -7.5...Like I stated above, the books are getting plenty of 2-way action from the betting public...And at -10, and looking at the SU record of both teams, I believe that this trend will continue...Which means that the only liability the books should end up with, is from "steam"...Finally, I won't be surprised if we see at least one of the Outfits work that middle...And that would force a slight adjustment downwards, in an attempt to turn-off the others from following also...Regardless, the fact that they haven't gone ahead and worked that middle as of Thursday, when they know for sure the public money will be split...tells me just how much the Outfits feel they've gotten the best of it...VR

 

4.) HOU/MEM TOTAL opened 73....Now 75

The OVER is a position that the Outfits absolutely love...and I'll tell you why...Last year, during a handful of pod-casts...I explained why even though the BIG 12 was scoring so many points, the Outfits continued to bet the Under...Because I have moved "steam" for so many years, I can tell you for certain that the Outfits would almost blindly bet the Under on any NCAAFB match-up that had a Total of 70 or higher...It was explained to me as a simple case of probability...Where they believe that the likelyhood of a game having 70+ points scored, is low enough to make betting the Under profitable over time...And I know that we cashed more tickets than we trashed, so the reasoning seemed sound...But in all those years moving "steam", there were also occasions where we were told to bet the OVER, on a game with a total of 70 or higher...And I can tell you from experience that those bets we made on the OVER, had an even higher WIN%...than probably any other total bets that we made...So as soon as CRIS went ahead and put up the first total for this match-up, and they were immediately reprimanded by the Outfits for being too low...I knew right away that this was an extremely significant position, and as "True Steam" as you can get...VR

LINE PREDICTION :  Now with that said, the sportsbooks are expecting the betting public to come in on the Under in a big way...And I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this line drop some as we approach game-time...But you can be sure, that any adjustment will not be made based on the Wiseguys...Because once again, they could have simply waited for the bettors to force the books to lower this total...and ultimately gone OVER an even lower number...We shouldn't see this go higher, which is another example of why it's so difficult to make money trying to follow the Outfits, if you aren't EXACTLY sure which are "True Steam" moves...And this is one move most would have missed...VR

 

Those are the 4 "Early Moves" that my own lines/ratings support the most for this weekend's NCAAFB Match-Ups...

And I have just "1" NFL BET that I feel is the Biggest "True Steam" Value Bet of the Week...And more importantly, we can still get as good of a number as the Betting Syndicates got on this bet...due to the fact the NFL lines are adjusted so much less...Which makes sense since the public money overwhelms the Wiseguy's money...

I am currently RANKED #1 in the NFL...and RANKED #2 in NCAAFB...for "MOST MONEY WON" in 2009...

Which makes it only fitting, that our 1st "True Steam" Game of the Week...is in the NFL...

 

If you would like to get down and bet that same "Steam Play" that myself and the Betting Syndicates will be on come Sunday...Simply click this link to get to My Home Page...

Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck...Please feel free to share your own info with us on this blog...or to post any questions or comments that you may have...Vegas-Runner

  • NEW TO PREGAME CAN SOMEONE TELL ME WHAT "TRUE STEAM" MEAN TRYING TO LEARN. IM TIRED OF GIVING THE BOOK MY MONEY>>> THANK YOU..

  • Air Force is a Secret Oddsmaker Opinion > http://bit.ly/784UAu

  • Marquez...Although a lot of betting takes place tonight for the Syndicates...Where they buy back some games, try to middle others, and even edge off where they think they'll be heavy on Saturday...as of right now, here is what I do know...

    1.) E MICH = Edge-Off on Toledo

    2.) KENT ST = True Steam

    3.) BAYLOR = True Steam (Should see Middle Attempt)

    4.) LA TECH = Outfits Disagree

    5.) SMU = (Middle Attempt)

    6.) DUKE = Edge-Off on Miami & Bet Both Sides

    7.) C FLA = Edge Off at Better Number

    8.) UL MONROE = True Steam

    9.) ARK ST = True Steam

    I hope that helps steer you in the right direction brother...Go get that books money !!

  • Dub...The shops that don't accept much public action and cater to more square action should definitely get to +11...I was actually able to get +11.5 at Bodog through various accounts without raising a red-flag...But they did go to -115, I believe when we got done betting it...

    I was also quoted +11 from more than 1/2 of the Locals I use...So I suggest waiting until closer to game-time because according to the sportsbooks...this game is extremely 1-sided with BG money...Best of Luck, VR

  • VR do you think the line for Akron could reach 11 by game time?

  • Ace,

    Finally did some homework early for once ;)  Some of these moves I suspect "true steam", and some look just like the public $$$ got "respect".  You got any word on these games here........

    311 E. Michigan +19.5

    343 Kent St. +13

    369 Baylor +7.5

    375 LA Tech +10

    381 SMU +4

    387 Duke +20

    392 Central Florida -20.5

    403 UL-Monroe -2.5

    405 Arkansas St. +11

    Thanks Bro!!!  And thanks for that reply on the Rutgers/Syracuse matchup.  GL this weekend!

  • Thanks Again Fellas...and I appreciate the fact that so many other really good handicappers are able to use this information to their advantage...

    That Carolina game last night was one of those times where it is difficult to know what the Outfits are truely doing because even though they went ahead and "Steamed" Carolina wherever the line was -3...I don't believe that it was "TRUE STEAM"...

    What you always have to consider and remember is that the majority of these Betting Syndicates also own books...

    So many times, what they'll do...and I know this because I was asked to do this so many times back when I moved "Steam"...is unload on the side that they know the public will be betting into thier books later one...

    This way, they are able to "Edge-Off" a lot of the liability at a better number than what their players are betting...Which ultimately puts them in a position to win from BOTH ends...By having their players lose, and their "Edge-Off" win...

    Other times, they will make this move in order to then allow the betting public to move the line up even more...So that they can then come back and attempt a profitable "middle"...

    There is just so much that goes on each day in the sports betting market...And as bettors, we need to always try and understand it...so we can take advantage as well....

    Thanks again, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner

    CARM...Thank you my friend and I really appreciate it...Feel free to check out all my past blogs because there is a lot of good information that I've passed along over the L/3 years here at Pregame...

    And feel free to check out my Pros Page for all the different packages/subscriptions that I offer...Because to be perfectly honest with you, I trust and allow Pregame to handle all of that end, so that I can spend all my time trying to pick winners, and educate my players and other forum members...VR

  • Hey VR how goes it...As usual Thank You for the write-up's regarding the "The True Steam" games that the

    Syndicates are hitting...As a second thought i see Bookie Bill is back Twitting again which is good news for most of us "bettors" If possible if i could ask a favor to relay to BB...Pls ask him to Twitt out the "Slick" plays compared to the square & or fade plays...

    Again Thanks for ALL your hard work...

    Gmoneys

  • VR I like your reasoning on some of the picks you make... What type of packages do u offer ???... I am new to this site.... Carm

  • i AGREE AGREE FRANKE.BEEN WAITING FOR A LINE MOVE.

  • From what I am seeing 85% of public on Carolina tonite.  I feel Car should be a 6.5, 7 pt fave.  They beat quality az,atl teams and took No to the wire.  Then I find out R Brown out for the season, he is what makes wildcat go for Miami.   Is the line staying at 3  b/c of wise guys taking a position or vegas.  What do you think #1 NFL money winner?  

  • So clear how much time VR takes with this - we are very lucky!