The oddsmakers have not been able to stay ahead of the Wiseguys in NCAAFB this season, and the limits imposed on "opening numbers"...and the adjustments that the bookmakers are willing to make to those "opening numbers", totally supports this...And we've been able to take advantage of this, going "8-2" the L/2 weeks...and "15-7" (68% ATS) Overall, since I began choosing those "early moves"...that my own "ratings/lines" showed to offer the most betting value...
That is without even really breaking down any match-ups, but instead...comparing what I think the line should be, to what the bookmakers offer...and seeing that the "early" Wiseguy money agrees with my number...So you can see why I always say that you have to create a line, or price...to compare to what the oddsmakers send out, and the books hang up, without any bias what so ever, since you don't look at what they think until you've formed your own opinion...
And because both, the oddsmakers and bookmakers have to account for "public perception" since the public bets so much on football...Many times they are a bigger liability to the sports books than the Wiseguys are...Which is what ultimately allows us sharper bettors, to find an edge...
As the season progresses...the "ratings/lines" of the oddsmakers and Wiseguys will resemble each other more...This makes for less "early moves" since the Betting Syndicate wagers will now be based more on handicapping and information, rather than a big disagreement on the "opening number"...
Not that there aren't any...Simply that there aren't as many...And many times, because of the lower limits imposed on "opening numbers", the Betting Syndicates will wait until more books have began taking wagers on the following week's games...So as handicappers, we know to make sure that we monitor the "line moves" that happen later in the week...As well as these that happened early...VR
NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" (WEEK 11) SAT 11-14-09 :
1.) PENN ST opened -22....Now -25.5/-26
This is a perfect example of why I wait until Tuesday afternoon to confirm the "early moves" that I'm going to use for this blog...and it's also another perfect example of why it can be confusing following "steam"...and being 100% sure, what the Wiseguys are on and what the "public is on"...Cris opened this up at PSU -22.5, while Pinny opened the game up at -22...at the exact same time...And at first, it appeared Pinny was even too high...because the Wiseguy money came in on Indiana and within 30 minutes, the line went to PSU -21/-21.5 all across the board...Where it stayed until Monday morning, when the Wiseguys sent out PSU "buy-orders" and the books moved the number up to -22.5 again...and eventually -23 by mid-afternoon...But it only stayed there for a couple of hours, because as soon as the locals began opening up shop for MNF...the Wiseguys started betting PSU -23, -24, -25, & -26...Those sportsbooks who decided to move the line in 1/2 point increments were hit the hardest, and eventually the majority had adjusted as high as PSU -27...That prompted some "buy-back" money from the Betting Syndicates, who find themselves with a middle of up to "6" points...Which is why we are now looking at PSU -25.5 or -26...VR
LINE PREDICTION : Believe it or not, the sportsbooks expect the betting public to take Indiana plus all those points...Which means that the books will be hoping for a PSU blow-out, so they don't get middled...Or for Indiana to stay within 20 points of PSU so that the point-spread doesn't come into play...This is why I believe we will see this sit around 25.5, which is right in the middle of where the books opened it...and where the Wiseguy money made them move it to...Books won't want to take more Wiseguy money, so even with the public betting Indiana...they won't want to lower it again, so the only way this should move...unless the Syndicates decide a full "buy-Back"...is UP....VR
2.) MISSISSIPPI opened -2.5....Now -5
This is a HUGE move for such a "high profile" SEC game, going over the "key number" of "3"...And I'm sure there are many of you who are wondering whether it's too late to follow the Wiseguys now that it has gone above that "key number" of "3"...Well, let me be the first to tell you that if you bet Ole Miss even at -5...you wouldn't be getting that much worse of a number than the majority of Betting Syndicates did...Because even though it obviously took a lot of money to move the line this much...most of it was bet at -3.5, -4, & -4.5...Cris opened the game at MISS -2.5, and within "1 MINUTE" they had gone to -3.5...which is where the rest of the off-shore books opened it...So you can see how much more they respect the "Wiseguys Opinion" compared to the "Oddsmakers Opinion"...When the line was -3.5 across the board, we saw a middle attempt from those Outfits who were able to lay -2.5...And when they came back and took +3.5 on Tenn, we saw the line sit a 3 for a moment...but went right back up to 3.5, not allowing the Wiseguys the opportunity to lay -3 again on Miss...Then Monday afternoon, the Outfits went to work again and laid -3.5, -4, & -4.5...and we saw some books take in less than others, when they went directly to -4.5, them -5...VR
LINE PREDICTION : Miss -5 is where the line is Tuesday, all across the board...And the only way this gets to -6, is if the Wiseguys unload a ton of money on Miss, and even then the sports books may opt to take a position rather than offer up such a huge middle opportunity...And since the books are expecting the betting public to really come to their aid...and bet Tenn heavy, I won't be surprised to see this drop down some, lowering the middle exposure for the books when the bettors start taking Tenn plus the points...And offering up Miss as low as -4/-4.5 again, while holding their breath hoping the Wiseguys were done getting involved in the game.
3.) MISSOURI opened +2.5....Now PK
If the books eventually feel enough pressure, and make KSU the favorite...we will almost definitely see the Outfits come back and work a middle...by ending up with bets on BOTH teams as "dogs"...Once again, this is another perfect example of why it becomes so difficult to make money trying to follow "steam" without an extremely reliable source...For starters, we can be quite sure that the Betting Syndicates really like Missouri...Because the sports books are expecting to get a lot of public money bet on KSU, which means that if they excercised patience...they could have been able to get +3...We all know that "3" is such a "key number", so there is no doubt that the Wiseguys believed there was already a ton of value at +2.5...And they bet it as soon as the sports books opened the game up to them...forcing the move down to 1...But to the surprise of myself and many, by the late Sunday...the Wiseguys had gotten off their initial bet of Missouri +2.5, by taking KSU -1...And when the night was over, the line was back to the original opening number of 2.5...But that didn't last too long as the Wiseguys went back to work, once again betting Missouri +2.5, +2, +1.5, & +1...on Monday afternoon...Which we can now be sure, is the position they truely wanted...VR
LINE PREDICTION : As of Tuesday, I am seeing a line anywhere from KSU -1 to Pick'em...And as I stated above, I am 100% sure that the sports books are expecting to get a lot of KSU money bet by the public on this match-up...This public money is what I think will be the only reason that the Wiseguys will not be able to get BOTH teams as underdogs...Because for that to happen, they would need to send out another "buy-order" on Miss...And I've been told that they already got down a lot, which means if we do see another "move" towards Miss...then we can be extremely confident that this is one of the biggest and favorite positions for the Betting Syndicates for this weekend's games...If we don't see that type of move, then we could expect this line to go off at KSU -1.5/-2...due to the late money from the betting public on game-day....VR
NFL "TRUE STEAM" (WEEK 10) 11-15-09
1.) REDSKINS opened +4.5....Now +3.5
Denver played on MNF this week, so the sportsbooks didn't offer a line for this match-up until early this morning...And as soon as they did, the Wiseguys let them know that they felt it was too high...This is a bit surprising because even though Denver lost on MNF in front of a national audience, the betting public thinks a lot more highly of them...than they do the Redskins, a team who the books claim gets faded by the bettors each and every week...So there was a good chance that the betting public would force this line to go higher, and offer the Betting Syndicates even more points on the dog...But once again, none of the Outfits wanted to risk being left behind...as as soon as one grabbed the +4.5 on the Redskins...the rest of them went to work quickly as well...taking +4.5 & +4, which is why we are now looking at 3.5 all across the board...VR
LINE PREDICTION : Obviously, the Betting Syndicates are hoping that this line could somehow get to 3...which would then open up a "middle" opportunity if they want to take it...But as I stated above, I am very confident that the betting public will be taking the Broncos...And I also believe that this may very well be one of the games that attracts the most betting volume...Which is why if it did drop to 3, it wouldn't stay there long at all...This is why we should only see one type of move, from now until kick-off...UP...VR
Those are the 4 "Early Moves" made by the Betting Syndicates for this upcoming weekend's NCAAFB & NFL games, that are supported by my own ratings/lines the most...
Later on this week, I will publish my "LINE-PREDICTION" Blog for the 2nd time...The overall goal of this blog is to try and have around 60% accuracy on my "line-predictions"...Because if I'm able to do this, then we will be able to get the BEST LINE for 60% of our bets...Which alone should help increase overall winning percentage...
Last week, I was able to accurately predict the "line-move" on "13 of 14" games that I chose....Which obviously isn't the norm, but does show you that I'm not just guessing either...There is a lot that goes into being able to accurately predict the market reaction for each particular game...
Please feel free to add any insights, comments, questions, ect...I take the time each week to write these blogs because I believe they are a good tool for handicappers...And also an excellent place to each share our information...Thanks again for your continued support, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner