Because I have always approached sports betting as a market, where one side sets a price (Oddsmaker/Bookmaker)...and the other side decides whether it's too high or too low and bets accordingly...I just couldn't pass up the chance to compare and convert the 2008 Presidential Election into an NFL Pointspread.
After taking a look around the web, at many of the off-shore sportsbooks who have posted a "price" on the upcoming election...I have concluded that the average lay price to Bet Senator Obama is about -700...Now that means, that for every $100 you want to win...you would have to lay $700, which ultimately makes Senator Obama an overwhelming favorite...The return price on Senator McCain is about +400, which means that for every $100 that you wager on him to win the Presidency next week, you would get back $400...Which is a bit higher than what Boxer Bernard Hopkins paid just a week ago, when he spoiled the party by derailing the "Younger", "Stronger", and "Expected Winner"...Kelly Pavlik...
But since we are in the heart of the football season...let's go ahead and convert those Prices into fair NFL "Point-Spread" equivalencies...And try and handicapp this election, based on that price...
For starters, at a lay price of -700...Senator Obama would come into "game-day" at about an -11 Point Favorite over Senator McCain...Which as most sports bettors would agree, is a very big number to lay in professional football...where parity is expected much more than in college sports...And usually, most recreational bettors would be the one's who wouldn't mind laying such a big number...
As for McCain, that would mean he is a huge "double-digit" Dog, heading into election/game-day...Because when it comes to sports which carry a point-spread, you either "lay" or "take" the same amount of points which are being offered...
But because this type of wager is a "Money-Line" Bet...and the sportsbook keeps a nice hold for themselves for booking the action...In reality, having Senator McCain installed as a +400 under-dog...would be the equivalent to an NFL team getting around "9" Points....Which once again, is a "Big Dog" in the NFL....and one that I am sure all of the "sharp" bettors would be lining up to back, which would "steam" the line down I believe...
To see just how big of a Favorite the sportsbooks have made Senator Obama, heading into the final week before the election...This week in the NFL (Week 9)...the closest comparisons would be Jacksonville Jaguars who are a -9 point favorite, on the road no less, against the win-less Cincinnati Bengals....Or like the Chicago Bears, who are a -12.5 point favorite at home...against the win-less Detroit Lions...
Fortunately for Obama supporters, he only needs to win...in order to become our next President, and not neccessarily by any particular amount of points...but instead electorial votes. On the other hand, McCain supporters may find comfort in knowing that just last February 3rd...the New York Giants, who were an underdog of a point or two higher (Patriots -12.5)...went on to defeat the highly favored and highly touted New England Patriots, by a score of 17-14...After some miraculous plays were made late in the game...while the Patriots had felt they had the game in the bag...
Will we see the Favorite, Obama come out on Election/Game-Day and cover the number like those 49ers & Cowboy teams we all remember...Or will the "live-dog" bite once more, and pull off another exciting back-door cover...just when we thought the outcome was final...The answer to that, barring any problems in Florida this time around...should be settled late Tuesday Night...24hrs after the Steelers and Redskins meet in Washington, in a game that the oddsmakers have set at more or less a "Pick-em" (Redskins -1.5)...
Either way, with all the conflicting reports we should continue to hear and read about...leading up to the "Big Game" on Tuesday. The only thing that I can confirm, is that although the point-spread shows otherwise...polls in the past have me believing that as of today, neither candidate is a "Lock"...Best of Luck to Both Men and their Supporters, Vegas-Runner...
Chad...hearing that kind of stuff just really makes me sick...It is a perfect example that regardless who wins the Presidency, this country is obviously not ready to accept it and do what it takes to make this country strong once again...Actions like those only make us weaker and I just finished reading 2 excellent biography's...One on Ben Franklin and the other on John Adams, which is what the mini-series on HBO was based on...And I can tell you that although not everyone agreed with who should lead...Everyone was aware that the only way to improve the quality of life for all, is to accept it and focus on working together to build, rather than apply hatred to destroy...
I'm glad to read on and see that you had the courage to go out the next day and stand by your beliefs...which is obviously something those cowards who egged your house lacked since they obviously ran away...Best of Luck to us all, VR
Sorry to hear that Chad. What a bunch of jerks.
Sarah(Conner)Palin - Schwarzenegger 2012
I had my Obama yard sign stolen and eggs thrown at my house last night. I live in a VERY republican neighborhood. Today, I removed the egg residue from my house, and replaced the stolen yard sign with 2 Obama yard signs...because *** them.
We elected George W. Bush and Dick Cheney with the promise of �Compassionate Conservatism�: less government, fiscal restraint, a �humble� foreign policy, and the promise to restore honor and integrity to the White House.
Eight years later where do we stand as a result of their leadership? The lack of progress toward their goals is tragic. That we�ve fallen so far so quickly is alarming.
Here�s a snapshot of the record:
The economy � Record business failures, bailouts and foreclosures. Growing unemployment with huge stock market loses
Fiscal policy � The largest budget deficit in history: nearly $500 billion. Tax cuts for big business, big oil and the wealthy. No bid contracts, pork barrel spending, rampant waste and mismanagement
Trade policy � Annual trade deficit approaching $1 trillion
Foreign policy � Arrogant and unilateral actions leading to pre-emptive war
Iraq War � $4 trillion mistake based on non-existent weapons of mass destruction and misdirected retribution
Health care � Inaccessible or unaffordable to 47 million uninsured (8.7 million are children)
Energy policy � Secret meetings with big oil companies. Record gas prices and profits
Our military � Inadequately equipped, over-committed and over-deployed
The Constitution and civil liberties � Authorized torture, domestic spying, Abu Ghraib atrocities and foreign rendition
Environmental stewardship � Officially, �global warming is a myth�
Honesty, transparency and integrity of government � Gone
Our standing in the world � Diminished
Every American, Republican, Democrat and Independent, should be outraged by this performance of cronyism, corruption and incompetence. We can�t change the last eight years, but we need to take a hard look at what the future might bring under a new president.
If you�re considering voting for John McCain, please note he voted with the president and supported the Bush/Cheney agenda 90 percent of the time.
Former Secretary of State General Colin Powell believes we can do better than McCain/Palin and so do I. He�s endorsed Senator Obama.
This election don�t vote a straight party ticket out of habit. The stakes are too high. This election don�t let any single issue overshadow the challenges we face as a country. Nov. 4 elect a man who is calm, articulate and intelligent. Elect a man with the vision of a United America, not a divided one. Vote Senator Barack Obama and help restore our country to a land of peace, justice and prosperity.
I agree with you about the election resembling Sports Betting. On PAPER (POLLS) Obama SHOULD Win....And Like SPORTS (Being Played out on the Field) Voters STILL have to punch that VOTING Ticket in the Voting Booth. NO ONE argues that THINGS are Worse( Economically) today than 8yrs ago, BUT Who's to say that it won't get WORSE Under a Democratic President?
Thanks Fellas...The strange thing about the election is how much it resembles sports betting when you look at "public perception", because the odds are obviously based on the polls...which as we have found countless times in the past, are not always a good indicator of what we could expect on "Game-Day"...Regardless of who wins, and I try to refrain from putting my own personal political views out there...The one thing that has become extremely clear during both campaigns...is that the american people are really adament about wanting change, because we can all agree that the state of our country has really declined over the last administration which really put very little thought into our interests...And there are very few people in this country that can actually say that things are better today, than when George Bush took office 8 yrs ago, especially economically...VR
not a chance .... bet obama ....money in the bank
a real bad year for republicans!
i just love the action
LEGAL ONE PLEASE!!
Arnold can't be VP. Not a "natural born" citizen. Neither is Obama but that doesn't seem to be stopping him!!
Just produce the mfn birth certificate!!!
Republicans own the voting machines, McCain has a puncher's chance.
Palin -Schwarzenegger 2012
Funny - I can't wait to see who you're putting your money on LOL
Good stuff VR!