Well I was really hoping to get more feedback from you guys on my last blog so that I would be able to really zero in on those factors which I believe are holding some really good cappers back from being great cappers...but I understand that summer is upon us and people are doing a lot more outdoor activities, so I will try to go over some of the things that I think are important for all handicappers to consider...
For starters, I truely feel that too many bettors are willing to wager without putting in the actual time that it requires to beat the number. What needs to be understood, is the fact that if you are actually trying to wager on sports as an investment, rather than for entertainment....it is going to require a lot of dedication and hard work. The reason for this is simple...you are attempting to beat a price that has been set by a group of men whose only responsibility is to set a price which will entice bettors to take the worst of it, while attemtping to increase the advantage their clients (books) have over the bettors. Now if you are doing this as a form of entertainment..then this doesn't apply because entertainment costs money and therefore you should expect to get billed...
Next, I have seen way too many bettors look at the board and even without having created their own number to compare, which I will get to a little later...go ahead and make their mind up right there and then about a bet. Now there is nothing wrong with instinct, and I believe that as you gain experience and really understand the inner workings of this market, you will become much better at locating certain situations which immediately scream "winner"...but what I am refering to is that too many cappers, after making that assumption...then go on to locate information or data that supports that decision...and there is no bigger mistake than that, because as human beings we tend to be extremely biased towards our own opinions, which is understandable...but as a handicapper, that really does you no good because its like a trend...if you really want to find one that supports your selection, it won't be too difficult to find...
Instead, I think that the approach should be this...you see a game that you feel is a good pick...but now, rather than try and locate a bunch of data which simply supports those feelings...instead, try and reason on a different level...try and figure out exactly why you think its a good pick...if its the price, then explain to yourself why the price is being offered...could it be a mistake, or could there be something that I do not know which is behind it...does public perception play a huge factor in this particular game (if its a MNF or ESPN game...the answer is always YES)...then when you break down the match-up try and justify taking the other team and really test yourself to see if you can make a case for them because as time passes and you get better and better at doing this...you will begin to see just how strong you play really is...and that then helps you rate your bets better...meaning that you become more efficient at choosing the unit size of your bets...which is something I will discuss when I write about money management...because it plays a major role...
Next, I know how difficult it is to know for sure if a game is being "steamed" if you aren't moving it yourself or have access to those who do...and the reason for this is obvious...many times there are different reasons why a number will move a few points even, which has nothing to do with "sharp" money taking a stand. What many fail to realize is, this is actually the "game"...meaning who is quicker to the move, and since I have had the privilage of playing that game, I know first hand that many times the books will beat the "sharps" to an adjustment which takes the value out of the play and therefore isn't "steam" at all...but I find too many people following it and assuming they are with the "smart money"...And then, you always need to be conscious of what the betting public is doing...and not because you want to be fading them or following them, but more importantly, because you want to be able to interpret how the market is reacting to action. And ask yourself...are they afraid of being heavy on one side ?? Why or why not...may help you form a more complete picture of what the oddsmaker is thinking...
And although our jobs is to be able to beat the oddsmakers price...we as cappers must respect the fact that these guys have access to a lot of information and their only obligation is knowing as much as possible about everything that has to do with the teams involved. And that brings me to the next thing that I have always found strange. I hear so many people say, "I would never pay for a pick"...and that is the most foolish attitude to have in this game if you intend on beating it. And I am not saying this because I am someone who now sells his information...Instead, I say this because I have worked under the most successful and respected sports bettors ever...and every single one of them paid for info and made sure that I understood that I was to try and locate winning info wherever possible and when I do...snatch it up as my own.
The reason for that is simple...Information is your weapon and the more weapons you have...the better chance you have of winning the war. The key is being able to locate, purchase, and to use it correctly. But more importantly, your success will hinder on your ability to locate "Winning Information"...and that is where the difficulty is. There is just too much worthless information available out there and securing profitable info becomes extremely difficult. But I will be the first to tell you that there has not been a day in my career as a sports bettor that I have not paid for information....NOT ONE...and my goal is always to try and locate even more of it so that I can be even more "armed" when I try to choose the right sides.
Now there are a lot more factors that I would like to go over which I feel are extremely important, and even possibly some further detail to possibly help you get started in moving in the right direction to becoming a more efficient and successful handicapper. And as we move forward, I would love to try and go over many of them and the best way for me to do that is to simply reply to your comments and questions. Like I have said before, I am accessable to you but you need to help me, help you...meaning, I was able to learn so much more than many of the other runners who I still see..and most of those guys are still looking for sharps to move money for because they didn't try to learn why they were making those bets. They didn't take the time to ask the kind of questions that would make them less dependent on others, so when they did try to go off on their own and bet for themselves...it didn't work out for them. So please, if there is something that is on your mind, or a question that you wished could be answered...do not be shy or timid...go ahead and ask it because that is how questions become answers. I want to thank you all for your support once again, and Best of Luck, VR...
Vegas Runner...can you do me a favor and explain to me what this page is all about:
www.pregame.com/.../sportsbook-spy-insights
its the "sportsbook spy" page. I do realize that it shows how much action is on a given game...and where the public is betting. but how does that change the way one would bet on the game? I mean..just because the public bets WITH or bets AGAINST doesnt mean much--cause maybe its a lock to win...or maybe they are dumb. you cant know for sure. so how does this help you as PART of your info for betting?? I mean..if a lot of the public bets on one side and the line doesnt change--does that mean something...meaning they arent willing to change the line for some reason cause the "public" is wrong? or anything like that?!?! if you have any advice for the best way for me to use the sportsbook spy, or if its worthless--please let me know, thanks so much!!
Jon
Thanks so much again Vegas Runner...these articles are amazing!!! Thanks for all the info and letting us all learn so much from what youve experienced in your life.
I have heard that the national games (mainly MNF) are hyped up quite a bit (at least when some strong offenses are playing or maybe poor defenses) and the Over/Under is therefore brought up a bit. (not to mention that people tend not to enjoy watching low scoring games and therefore tend not to bet as many unders as they do overs of games they will watch). Do you find this to be true, or was this more something that happened decades ago before the internet and all that information was out there. I guess what im asking is, do you feel under should be looked at harder on those type of games, or have you not found such trends to be true? Thanks again!!
wejj...first, thank you for the support and I am glad to see that you and many others have been able to gain some helpful knowledge from these blog posts and I look forward to continuing to pass along what I can to try and help...
Now getting to your question about totals...it seems to me that you are definately looking at the proper stats to try and capp the expected runs scored...
A few of the things that I always make sure I do is to try and anticipate how the offense of both teams have been doing recently...I try and look at the most current numbers as well because what they did in April means very little right now...just look at the Diamondbacks....
This gives the capper the opportunity to get a jump on the oddsmakers before public perception forces them to adjust....what I mean by this is that there are many times that powerful or weak offenses begin to do the opposite for a stretch and being able to anticipate that will give you a huge advantage at times...
Also, you always want to respect the oddsmakers...meaning that they do work hard and they have access to a lot of information which means that when we see a line that we find an edge in...along with doing the capping to justify a selection, I think that a capper needs to apply a different level of reasoning...
Although its our job to find the errors made by oddsmakers, we also need to be able to assume why a number is what it is...meaning, try and figure out reasons why it may be off...it can be anything from public perception, to weather...but regardless, always make sure that you give the oddsmaker their respect...because if the total offered is 7.5 and yet you were expecting 9, then more times than not, the key to finding the right side rests on your ability to determine the reasoning for the 7.5 being offered....
Finally, if you really want to get serious about totals, always factor in the park, because each park has an average # of runs that the oddsmakers begin with, and then go up or down, depending on the other variables...and then, the umps...and although you may not have the time and resources to be able to do all of this thoroughly for each game...being conscious of the ump for the game you are planning of taking a stand, becomes that added work that many overlook...
In closing, this truely is very complex work...trying to determine the outcome of future events...and what we can do to give us the best chance at doing this is by increasing the amount of past data we are willing to account for and the levels of reasoning we are willing to think at...
Best of luck and thanks again for your participation, VR
I forgot to add..... When all else fails I ask my 4yr old son who he likes. amazingly hes just under 60% the last couple months.
Thanks for the article and the information, but I do have a question. I mostly play the totals and I wanted to know if you had some advice on what information you look at. I generaly look at the team/pitchers current form, road/home eras and then I look at the past performance of the teams against the starting pitcher. I am learning to look more at the previous days games and see how the much the bullpens have been used. Any other information that will help my handicapping would be appreciated. Thanks for the great columns.
VR, thanks again for another great read! Since MLB is the bulk of whats on the board right now I'll center my comment(s) on this sport. I personally have a tough time generating my own number on the sides. My method for capping is to look over the board study in conjunction the team matchups, pitching match ups, home/away match ups. At this point I form a tenative decision as to wether or not I am interested in moving forward on a particular game. If the game does interest me I then delve into the world of stats; how do the teams play on the road vs. home, weekday vs weeknight vs. weekend day/night. righty vs. lefty batting avg.. History of the team match ups. going for / trying to avoid a sweep. How have the teams plays in their L10. Are the teams on a winning/losing streak. And all the other pertinent stuff. After this I decide who it is Itruly like in a match up. Then and only then I look at what price the book is offering. I then decide if the price offered is something I can or can't lay for a game. Dealing with that # becomes purely arbitrary on my part since I don't feel that the # I formulate matches up to the books very often. How does one generate their own solid #? Then there's the totals..... And thats a whole nother story! LOL.
Thanks Randy and I appreciate your confidence in my work...your honesty is what is going to allow you to become much more successful in this market than you would imagine...because too many times I see bettors who aren't honest with themselves and are never able to stop making the same mistakes that becomes their downfall...
You can very easily make betting on sports a part time job/investment for yourself...the key I believe is having a plan of action and making sure you execute at all times...you need to be realistic in your expectations based on your initial bankroll because that is where so many lack discipline...and you need to continue doing the right thing over and over and eventually your business will grow...
As far as following the "hot" guy...that is one of the most difficult things to do because it's hard enough to capp games, let alone capp the capper...and more times than not, you will jump on or off at the wrong time...the best way to avoid that is to recognize Winning Information and making it one of your sources...meaning, if you are going to follow a capper,. you should concentrate more on finding and following those who have a proven, winning track record...
And I am not talking about someone who is 20-10 the L/3 weeks...instead, I am talking about someone who has shown that their info has produced profits...because otherwise, there will be no consistancy...too many bettors look for that advertisement which grabs their attention and seems to be a big play for the capper...which I feel is foolish because everyday that you look, someone will definately have a GOY for sale...
That really is a huge mistake made by so many bettors seeking information...they don't have the patience to let a winner, win for them...they want to jump around to who is claiming to be hot, rather than who is a proven winner...and if they would just stop and really think about what they are doing, they would realize that its a sure way to lose money...because following information from someone who is a proven long-term loser, just because he has a big play makes absolutely no sense...but we get all caught up in the moment...
Thanks again for your support and for your confidence and I look forward to working this market with you fot a long time to come, VR...
Great stuff VR! I am a client of yours and relatively new to the world of sports betting. I have made some big mistakes that have been costly but want to try to make this some what of a part time job. I love the action of betting but want to love consistant winning more. The biggest "rookie' mistake I have made is trying to follow "hot cappers" on the forum. It always seems that when a capper gets hot and you follow they always go cold. It's similiar to the stock market that when you hear about a hot stock it is already too late to buy it. Now I am sticking to your selections. You play a lot of games which I like. There has been a lot of talk and tracking lately on the forum about going against tout selections when there is a big difference in the selections. Example would be last night when there were 12 Touts on CIN and 1 on TOR. The theory is you put your money on TOR. They won. It seems like that has been a winning theory so far this season. There is more to this "theory" or "system" which I'm sure you already know but I wanted to find out your thoughts on this....
I would answer all of your questions in your Part 1 blog but I'm not a capper so I don't think my info would help you.
NICE!!!
Another TOP NOTCH post VR, thankyou.
I also liked the part about finding the right information to pay for. I have no problem paying for good solid info. But like you said, people need to be extremely careful because this is a shady business and there are a lot of fakes out there. However, I agree that if I have to pay a few bucks for good info, it's well worth it in my opinion.
Another great read VR. One thing I've learned is if a game jumps out at me as an easy winner right away, it deserves the most scrutiny because nothing is easy in this game.
Marco had a PLAY he called "The Late Money Play from Las Vegas". It was Hot & Cold.....but LOST more than it WON!
VR
Even though you might not get as many responses or feedback as you would like to see, you must know that you, your time, and your effort you give us is MUCH APPRECIATED. Thank you.