With the anticipation of the upcoming football season, I thought that I would create a few blog posts which would help me try and pass along some factors which will make you a much more successful sports bettor. I feel that the best way for me to do that is to first find out what the majority of sports bettors are actually doing. So I want to put together a series of blog posts which pose some questions on handicapping and money management...and based on the various answers from you guys, I can then see where I can be the most help.
I believe that this will allow me to pass along so much of what I have been taught, as well as many of the experiences in the hope that they can stop many of you from making those same mistakes, and even better, help point you in the right direction so that you are able to have success much sooner than I was. Because believe me, I have been in this racket my entire life and in every possible capacity imaginable...and I have worked with and seen the guys who have proven that wagering on sports is the one "gamble" that the casino's only have the edge you are willing to give up. Meaning that since as a bettor, you have the ability to handicapp...that ability can actually tilt the scales to your favor.
Unlike other parts of a casino, the sportsbook is not guaranteed to turn a profit based on probability. And although they do have a 4.5% edge because of the vig they charge...the lack of a sharp line and a lot of work, can easily erase it...so to start it off, I would like to know..."How Do You Handicapp Sports"...
For myself, I didn't realize how little I actually knew until I came out here to Vegas and actually saw how "sharps" capp games...and even though I came here because I had access to winning information, I was not the one who was able to determine the winners. Instead, I had the privilage of moving "steam" for those who did. But my fascination and passion for this racket made me want to learn everything that they did...and it also made me want to take the same steps with those selections that they did, which assured their success...and that need to know gave me the courage to ask 1,000s of questions along the way which I believe to this day...formed the foundation for everything I have been able to do...
What I am interested in knowing is...
1.) How much time do you put in before being willing to make a bet...
2.) Do you create your own lines to compare to what is being offered...
3.) If you do, is it based on your opinion....or do you base it on your power-ratings...
4.) What factors do you create your ratings with and how do you adjust...
5.) Do you care what the public is on...if so, how do you know...
6.) Do you care what is being "steamed"...if so, how do you determine that...
7.) Do you go over your bets after they Win & Lose...
8.) Do you consider each game an independent random event...
9.) Do you ever simply follow your gut or look at a match-up and immediately make a decision...
10.) Do you watch the games...if so, do you ever write down any notes...
11.) Is there a particular system/trend that you have tried to figure out and follow...
12.) Do you pay for information...paid cappers, inter-net sites, ect...
13.) Are you willing to bet a game without going through your handicapping ritual completely...
14.) Are your picks based more on stats or situations...(example : "they can't get swept")
15.) Do you have an opinion...and then try to find supporting data...
Now it may seem like a lot, and it may also seem like there is a lot more that I could be asking...but your cooperation and participation will really go a long way in helping me write a blog post that will help you tremendously...all I ask is that you be truthful or else it becomes meaningless and nothing will be gained...I am not interested in what you consider doing, instead I really want to know exactly what you do for some of these questions...
Like I said before, I am not the sharpest guy out there and I surely wasn't born knowing anything about what I do now...but I have been in this game very, very deep...and I have played it at the most serious levels imaginable, which has allowed me to see what those men who move the lines do to try and pick winners...many of those things, I am aware that the average bettor just can't do, either because they don't have the finances or the means...but there is so much that you can do and I truely would love to help you do it...unlike many paid cappers out there, my situation is a little different because I have used my handicapping to bet real money as a means to make a living for a very long time...and my intentions when learning to be a winning capper were actually never so that I can share my work with people , via a service..but instead so that I am not dependent on others to invest in this market...
In closing, I know that I may be asking for you to take some time and put in some work...but I promise you that it will surely be worth it. It is an excellent way for me to pass along a lot of what has helped me be able to beat this market for so long...and whether that is your intention, or if you would just like to have a better chance of winning when you do make a bet...I believe that my experience and knowledge can only help by forcing you to think at a different level, reason at a different level, and ultimately handicapp at a different level...Thanks again for all your support and cooperation...I will next do a blog asking "Money Management" questions and in the mean time...continue to check out responses to this blog so that I can begin forming a piece on "handicapping" for everyone to share...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...
Is this post still active?
If so, could you talk a little about how to set your own lines? I would love to be able to start trying to figure out my own lines and power ratings .....ect.....
1.) 3-4 hrs a day capping sports to come up with leans and then confirm with pro picks that I have purchased.
2.) yes but on a rudimentary level, comparing lines from past games across opponents and common opponents where feasible (thanks dan)
3.) combination of the eye ball test and style of play + power rating created based on last 10 gms performance
4.) Home and away performance, performance vs. common opponent, how the teams will do on a neutral court.
5.) Sometimes, it may delay when i take my position if I think I can get a better value by waiting on a dog.
6.) Don't have much visibility to this other than line movements based on pregame wire, forum discussions and comment from marco and VR.
7.) Yes, i try to figure out why i won or lost and what factor i didn't account for played an unexpected role.
8.) Not entirely, how they played the last few gams and upcoming marquee games impact the game at hand and neds to be accounted for.
9.) Yes if it means by moving early i get the best of the line. I am considering doing mlb overnight lines so i can get sides at a better price.
10.) Yes (probably way too much) and Yes (bullpens in baseball in particular).
11.) No systems/trends - approach each day fresh
12.) I have all access subscriptions to Dan Bebe, Mike Hook and of course VR - my equivalent of the S&P, Dow and Nasadaq.
14.) Stats and some situations (emotional angles such as the detroit farewell to heir long time on air guy)
15.) No, go in look at the data and evaluate. one reason i try to avoid plays on teams i root for as a fan.
I know this is an old post re-surfacing but I'm extremely keen on learning what I need to know to become and put myself in the shoes that you currently wear. I know that I'll never ever have the experiences you have had in the past but would love to pick your brain to become the best pro bettor I can be. Dec 20 last year I put $150 into a Centerbet account (Australia) and have since made some nice progress getting myself up to the $700 mark. I got to $600 then I had a real lean patch, dropping down to the mid 300's, then I had some more luck (knowing what I know now, I call it luck) going back to $500, then I bumped into this fantastic website and have since been on here as much as possible trying to learn as much as I can. As I would love to earn a living doing this fulltime I feel that with the right advice I can become what you guys n this site are. I know I have a heap to learn but I'm ready to do the hard work in order to do so. I'm probably making what I need to learn very difficult in my head but I'm sure there will be a time where it just clicks and I can become that full timer I mentioned before.
Here are my answers in regard to your old post. I would love to go through them and let me know a few things.
1) 10-15 mins
2) I have just started too after finding the statfox.com website where they offer power rankings that account for the lines when you subtract them from one another, then add three for home court. But I have found that there is a difference in my line and the starting line but I have to now know the reasons for those differences. Eg Last time played, on a back to back, recent form etc.
3) As above
4) This is what I would like to learn, the factors that are most important in making the decision to get the line set. After having the guideline that statfox gives me, I would like to know then what I should do next to start making some changes.
5) No, but I'll look and say to myself maybe they are right sometimes, that I'm still not knowledgeable enough. I have already learnt that the public can be very wrong and have already experienced this. Even today with the Notre Dame/South Carolina game. I did my own research and made my decision to select South Carolina, unfortunately though my bet agency didn't have it available.
6) Still coming to terms with the term.
7) Yes but not probably as much as I should.
8) Yes and No meaning that I sometimes put two or three games into a multi bet.
9) Sometimes so yes, you look at the numbers and they just trend towards teams from previous outings, sometimes that can persuade me into selecting them.
10) Yes I watch games but don't make notes, what sort of notes should I be taking?
11) Yes, I'll look at the SU/ATS stats, look at the injuries, suspensions, form, schedule before and after the current game but that's what I want to find more about, what other areas should I be focusing on?
12) No, I have just found this website so I haven't paid for cappers apart from the freebie I received from joining this site.
13) Sometimes so yes, I'ts gonna raise some eyeborws I'm sure but that's the difference between us and you VR. Like I said in earlier answers, I need to become better at recognising the things that I should be looking at so I can make a more informed decision.
14) Stats and Situationals
15) Not really but sometimes if I read others opinions on the same game I might stay away from it, rather than investigate more if my opinion is different. I should look into it more but again it's things I should be looking at which is what I need to become better at. Sorry for going like a broken record in regard to that answer.
Any questions please let me know, look forward to speaking to you soon.
Wow--great questions here...im new to this page and this article has already blown me away--thanks!!
1) If we are talking about football i am usually ready most of the week. thinking about future games as that weekends games are being played. i do a lot of fantasy football so i have a good pulse for players and match ups...as the lines are set that week, i follow them a bit--though most of my final selection wont take place until at least sat night and more than likely everything is done sunday morning.
2) I do that sometimes, but i often try to guess what the set line will be rather than setting my own line--so that if i think the line will be one way and its going the other way--i question why and look into the game a bit more in depth.
3) based on my opinion
4) I start with overall offense vs defense and then i start to break it down. I compare QBs, the top two or three WRs vs top two or three CBs...if the def has a lot of blitzing or if they sit back and how that relates to the QBs play as well as the coaches play. Weather and injuries are surely taken into account (more on the total with weather). I try to guess at how the coach is going to play the game...even if he is a "grind it out and run down the clock" type coach...does the recent injury news change the way he will play it? Or, since he has such close games and runs down the clock, will the other team be able to upset with a last min play...etc.
5) Just last year i started following the way the line is moving one way or the other...but it doesnt change the way i play.
6) im not sure what "steamed" is...so i guess i dont
7) I look over all that ive done for the week, but not so much as to "why i lost" if thats what yo uare asking...though if you look up to number 1 of my post--i do use that info to take it into account for the future weeks.
8) im not sure what you mean but im thinking the answer is yes to me--so ill explain. just because team A beat team B...and team B beat C...does not mean A will beat C. I think each match up on any given week is unique and can never be reproduced.
9) No...though i am shocked at times by some of the lines i see...i always review (im very analytical) --maybe a bit too much to my fault :)
10) yeah baby---ive got the NFL package on my dish! :) i try not to miss anything. I dont write things down though, im too busy changing the channels, though i have a strong memory and i am often making mental notes as i know i will need that info for next weeks game selections as well as fantasy football match ups.
11) sadly no, i enjoy crunching all kinds of numbers, focusing on all different sorts of match ups, reading a ton of information all over the web and watching tv -- but the most ive done is to "try" a system. By "try" i mean that i make notes after picking games and the reason for my picks...this usually lasts just a few weeks before i realize the system didnt actually work and i move on.
12) no, i never have.
13) i dont have any rituals nor superstitions aside from getting in front of a nice big flat screen for the 1pm kick off :)
14) Stats (and match ups). i take it into account that (in MLB) its very hard for a team to get swept -- though it does happen...im still more by the numbers and by the match ups though.
15) Im sure that happens (its human nature to do such things)...and, as i said im very analytical and continue to find so much information at times that i continue to go back and forth on the same game--which causes quite a problem. but the reason for this is because i want to have both sides set out and then select. any games that my roommate is a huge fan of or something, i try to stay away from so that i dont run into the situation of chasing info to support my selection.
once again--thanks so much for this post and asking these questions--it was a pleasure to answer!!!!
Thanks guys, and I just want you to know that I really am taking this very seriously because I think that I can really help a lot of good handicappers become even better by not making many of the mistakes that I have...and by also possibly passing along some different levels of reasoning that you may not have considered which were taught to me...handicapping truely is a skill and a talent and like any other, training and more importantly proper training is so important and I am not trying to say that I know everything because I still have so much to learn due to the fact I have set the bar so high due to what I have seen from guys who have been considered the "sharpest"...
And even though, like most talents and skills...there will be those who are just cut out to succeed at this more than others...everyone who strives for it can definately improve...
So I do want to thank you guys who have participated and who will so that I can put together a series of blogs about different aspect of handicapping and as soon as I have some more data from you guys, I am hoping that you can help me...help you with money management issues...Thanks and Best of Luck, VR...
Come on Guys......STEP UP to the PLATE!!!!!!!!!!!
You mean flipping a lucky nickel doesn't count as handicapping? D'oh!
#1 4-6 hours per week
#4 SOS,Matchups,Injuries, QB's, Coaches.
#13 Never. Not even if Matty O'Shea has a GOY!
# 15 Yes
GREAT BLOG. Hope this Helps. Good Luck to You!
Busy Day. Gonna make a list & respond SAP.
theres so many things i do during the course of the day to determaine whom im going to pull the trigger on, but i always take into consideration WHERE MY INFORMATION IS COMING FROM.....and the last thing i do is check the weather if its an outdoor event.....i have my own set of powerartings for each sport/team and i do all my own homework first and then start looking for final info from others to QUALIFY my selections.....sometimes i buy information, sometimes i sell information but the bottom line is its still ALL ON ME when the final choice is made.....i dont bitch when i lose and dont gloat when we win......this is a serious business to me and i cant imagine doing anything else but breaking down games and finding the flaws and then EXPLOITING THEM !!!!! VR is one of my main sources of solid info and i have to include pregame.com into the equation because ive won a ton of loot from information on this site.....use all of your resources and then digest the good spit out the inane and shoot the shot......
Thanks Guys...and I really am hoping that I am able to gather enough feedback from our Members so that I am able to write a series of Blogs on "Handicapping & Money Management" that I know will be a huge help for a lot of people...because there is so much that I want to share that I have been taught and experienced that I believe, by seeing many of your responses...I will really be able to cater it to those things that I feel may be lacking...thanks again for your participation and best of luck, VR
You are certainly one of the sharpest guys I know, if not the sharpest. I echo Tommy's comments here in that I am very fortunate to have the opportunity to learn from you. I believe many others feel the same way I do. Thanks buddy!
Great read VR. I like to think of myself as a decent capper but I'm always trying to improve and get better in ALL sports. I feel like I gain a new handicapping nugget every time I read your stuff. Thanks for the input.
Good Question. Good Blog. My answer: I don't cap games. I used to, but it takes too much time away from the family. It was getting too hard to juggle a full time job, being a spouse and full time dad while trying to cap games. Now, I just invest in proven cappers like you. This way, all I have to do is get the picks, put them in, and maintain a strict money management plan and keep tabs on every wager in every sport that I make. Damn.....kinda feel like a secretary or something. LOL. Even just doing this my girl says I'm on the computer too damn much.
Lately, I've been keeping track of the 2nd half lines and setting up middles in WNBA and AFL. Those have been working out great.
I'm loving the blogs and the information you pass on. Their very much appreciated.
Anyways, keep doing what your doing VR. Best of luck to you!