The other day I touched on "Exotic Wagers" after doing a blog post on the "Run-Line" in MLB wagering and the probabilities of 1run games for both the home and away teams. Today, I would like to cover another "Exotic Wager" that has really gained in popularity with bettors so much, that even the Las Vegas Strip properties have begun offering them in their sportsbooks. Now I will be straight with you and let you know that I have never made this wager in my entire sports betting career, nor have ever cheered for it since when I was a book, our menu of "Exotics" were reverses and teasers. Then as a runner they weren't available, and since wagering on my own capped games I have always prefered applying what I have been taught and I had not ever had reason to think I could find an edge with the 5Inn Wager. But like I stated, these wagers have continued to gain in popularity and as more and more bettors make this type of wager with each passing game, I have decided that it was time to break it down and see if I am able to find an exploitable edge to profit with.

The first thing though that got my attention right away was the fact that few books are willing to offer a vig low enough to keep the shops edge to where I feel its fair. The reason for this is that very few shops are offering 10cent lines and that makes shopping for value and the best line just about impossible. And yet, even though today's bettors know a 15cent and 20cent line when they see one, and know that betting into it will make turning a profit much more difficult over time...bettors continue to make 5 Inning Wagers.

The reason for this I think is obvious...the bettor doesn't want another blown save to cost him a wager. And for those who are thorough handicappers, they trust their ability to handicapp the bull-pen and their ability to forcast how the game should go...and then use the 5 Inning Wager to avoid that same blown save. So now, lets dig into the "actual" facts and break down the numbers to see if this "Exotic" is actually a good bet that all sports handicappers need to consider when betting....

These Numbers are based on the Last 5 Years :

HOME TEAMS WON GAME : 53.8%     HOME TEAMS WON 5TH : 53.5%

ROAD TEAMS WON GAME : 46.2%     ROAD TEAMS WON 5TH : 46.5%

Those figures show us the slightest of improvements by making  a 5th Inning Wager on a road team, which does make sense since it is expected that the home team makes a comeback late in a game more times than the road team would and the figures below which is a more detailed break-down of the data will also show that to be true...

Now lets see how the 5 Inning Wager has broken down for both the home and road teams in the Last 5 Years :

HOME TEAM WINS 5TH & WINS GAME : 44.8%

ROAD TEAM WINS 5TH & WINS GAME : 37.2%

HOME TEAM WINS 5TH & LOSES GAME : 8.7%

ROAD TEAM WINS 5TH & LOSES GAME : 9.3%

From those figures we can now see that the Winner of the 5th Inning will go on to Win the Game 82% of the time...which means that 18% of the time, the team leading after the 5th will not end up the Winner of the Game...

Now we see that being able to handicapp the bull-pens and having a strong ability to forcast how a game will go is a must if you plan on using the 5th Inning Wager to actually improve your winning % and lower those loses that come when your team blows its lead. After digging some more, we also found that last season the 5 MLB Teams with the WORST BULL-PEN ERA did actually go on to BLOW the most Leads after the 5th Inning....

In the end, I believe now that as more and more shops begin competing for 5th Inning Wagers since it seems they will continue to gain in popularity...I can see the vig being lowered accross the board to make this a very good wager to add to a sports bettors arsenal, but I also want to caution that these wagers must also be used sparingly and in certain situations only if what you are looking for is actually a possible improvement on winning %, rather than just a different form of action, because remember...to use this wager successfully and to overcome the books edge, it will obviously take even more work from the handicapper. Best of Luck if you do decide to make those 5 Inning Wager this summer. Vegas-Runner....and let me know how you have fared with this bet in the past and has it made a difference, either good or bad...